Gold prices surged to a new record high, surpassing $4,600 an ounce on Monday, January 12, 2026, as a confluence of market-moving events stoked investor anxiety. The primary catalyst was the stunning revelation of a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which has ignited serious questions about the central bank’s independence and prompted a significant flight to safety.
Compounding this, escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning potential U.S. military action in Iran, have provided further support for the precious metal. This surge places gold in a price discovery phase, with analysts closely watching key technical and fundamental drivers for its next move.
Market Drivers and Geopolitical Undercurrents
The rally in precious metals gained significant momentum following the news that federal prosecutors have initiated a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This unprecedented development has created profound uncertainty across global financial markets, driving investors towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold. The investigation, which Powell has characterized as a pretext related to disagreements over interest rate policy, has undermined confidence in the stability of the U.S. financial system. As a result, market participants are repricing risk, leading to a substantial inflow of capital into gold.
Adding to the bullish sentiment for gold are persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Reports indicating that the U.S. administration is considering various military options in Iran have heightened fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East. Such an escalation would have far-reaching implications for global stability and energy markets, further solidifying gold’s appeal as a store of value during times of international turmoil. This risk premium is expected to keep the gold price well-supported, even as some traders engage in profit-taking after the recent record highs.
Technical Analysis and Price Projections
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook
From a technical standpoint, gold has firmly entered a bullish price discovery phase after breaking its previous records. The next significant psychological and technical target is the $5,000 level, which aligns with a 100% Fibonacci extension from previous price movements. Immediate support for the metal can be found near the October 2025 peak around $4,360, with a more substantial floor at the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) near $4,255. The overall bullish trend remains intact as long as the price holds above the critical 200-day EMA, currently situated around $3,730. A break below this level would be required to invalidate the current upward momentum.
Silver has demonstrated even more remarkable strength, outperforming gold with a dramatic surge that has seen its value increase by over 150% in the last year. The white metal is now targeting the $88 mark, which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level. This powerful rally is fueled not only by the same safe-haven demand benefiting gold but also by strong industrial demand. While the price is significantly extended from its 50-day EMA (around $64) and 200-day EMA (around $48), suggesting some risk of a short-term pullback, the underlying trend remains exceptionally bullish.
Economic Events to Watch This Week
Investors will be closely monitoring a series of key economic data releases this week, which could introduce further volatility into the markets.
U.S. Inflation and Housing Data
On Tuesday, the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide a critical update on inflation trends. A higher-than-expected reading could strengthen the U.S. dollar and potentially temper gold’s rally, while a softer number might reinforce expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, supporting precious metals. The New Home Sales report, also due on Tuesday, will offer insights into the health of the housing sector and broader consumer confidence.
Producer Prices and Retail Sales
Wednesday’s agenda features the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Retail Sales report. The PPI serves as a leading indicator for consumer inflation, while the retail sales figures are a direct measure of consumer spending, a key driver of the U.S. economy. Strong data could bolster the dollar, whereas weak numbers may increase recession fears and fuel more safe-haven buying of gold.
U.K. GDP and U.S. Jobless Claims
On Thursday, the market will turn its attention to Britain’s monthly GDP figures, which will provide a snapshot of the UK’s economic health. In the U.S., the weekly Unemployment Claims data will be released. A significant increase in jobless claims could signal a weakening labor market, potentially weighing on the dollar and providing another tailwind for gold prices.
Conclusion
Gold’s ascent to a new all-time high reflects deep-seated market anxiety stemming from a unique combination of political and economic pressures. While technical indicators point towards a continued bullish trend with a target of $5,000, market direction in the coming days will be heavily influenced by this week’s economic data.
Disclaimer:
All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner’s prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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