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Tuesday 19 April 2022

Rising inflationary pressures increased safe-haven bids for the precious metal Gold

US stock market: U.S stocks closed lower yesterday after a session that saw all three benchmarks slip between positive and negative territory, as investors contrasted Bank of America's positive earnings with surging bond yields ahead of further earnings cues this week. 

Market participants are bracing for a barrage of earnings that will help them assess the impact of the Ukraine war and a spike in inflation on company financials. Netflix, Tesla, Johnson & Johnson, and International Business Machines are all to report this week. Trading volumes were thin after the Easter break: 10.35 billion shares changed hands, compared with the 11.79 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days. 

Economic Calendar

With European markets also remaining shut on Monday, this listless trading contributed to the topsy-turvy session. Shares of market-leading technology and growth companies have come under pressure as expectations of a string of interest rate hikes threaten to erode their future earnings.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.11%. The biggest gainers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which rose 2.56% or 8.24 points to trade at 329.88 at the close. Intel Corporation added 2.12% or 0.97 points to end at 46.64 and JPMorgan Chase & Co was up 1.86% or 2.34 points to 128.46 in late trade. The biggest losers included Walt Disney Company, which lost 2.07% or 2.70 points to trade at 127.77 in late trade. Honeywell International Inc. declined 1.60% or 3.12 points to end at 192.07 and Home Depot Inc. shed 1.42% or 4.31 points to 300.21.

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NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index declined 0.14%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Casa Systems Inc. which rose 82.52% to 7.10, Frequency Therapeutics Inc. which was up 30.82% to settle at 1.91 and Natus Medical Incorporated which gained 28.64% to close at 33.51. The worst performers were Diffusion Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was down 34.22% to 0.17 in late trade, Nutex Health Inc. which lost 29.18% to settle at 5.17 and Digital Brands Group Inc. which was down 23.57% to 0.85 at the close.

Oil price - Crude Oil market, Brent Oil market

Oil prices see-sawed today as investors fretted over tight global supplies after Libya halted some exports and as factories in Shanghai prepared to reopen post a COVID-19 shutdown, easing some demand worries. U.S West Texas Intermediate crude fell 45 cents, or 0.42%, to $107.76 a barrel, after rising to $108.92 earlier. 

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Prices came under pressure with the dollar trading at a fresh two-year high. A firmer greenback makes commodities priced in dollars more expensive for holders of other currencies. The latest supply hit came just as fuel demand in China, the world's largest oil importer, was expected to pick up as manufacturing plants prepared to reopen in Shanghai. 

Oil prices, however, are still vulnerable to demand shocks as China continues to impose tough COVID-related curbs. In the United States, crude inventories rose by 9.4 million barrels in the week to April 8 to 421.8 million barrels, against analysts' hopes for an 863,000-barrel rise, a preliminary Reuters poll showed.

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Precious and Base Metals - Gold price, Silver price, Palladium price

Gold rose to a one-month high yesterday, just shy of the $2,000 an ounce level, as concerns around the Russia-Ukraine conflict and rising inflationary pressures increased safe-haven bids for the precious metal. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,976.56 per ounce, after earlier hitting its highest since March 11 at $1,998.10. 

U.S gold futures settled 0.6% higher at $1,986.4. Gold's advance was curbed late in the session by a jump in benchmark 10-year U.S Treasury yields and further gains in the dollar, which dulls the appetite for gold among overseas buyers. The little step-up in tension due to the Russia-Ukraine war with inflationary pressures across the board boost safe-haven demand for gold. 

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Concerns over the economic hit from COVID-led restrictions in China also supported the metal. Although concerns of soaring inflation boost gold's safe-haven appeal, interest rate hikes to temper higher prices could hurt demand for the metal because of the higher opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. The U.S Federal Reserve is expected to accelerate its pace of policy tightening when it meets next, with a rise of 50 basis points expected in the May and June meetings. 

From a technical perspective, spot gold may face little resistance once it goes north of $2,000. However, gold's ability to keep its head above $2,000 may be strained once real yields break into positive territory. Spot silver rose 0.5% to $25.80 per ounce, having earlier hit its highest in over a month at $26.21. Platinum gained 2.2% to $1,011.89, its highest since March 25, while palladium was up 2.2% to $2,419.30. The epitome of concerns for palladium and platinum is about supply disruptions due to the war.

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Traditional Agricultures - Corn futures, Wheat futures,  Soybean futures

U.S grains futures edged higher today, with corn prices touching a decade high, as unfavorable U.S weather conditions and stalled Black Sea exports due to the Ukraine crisis intensified worries over tightening global supplies. The USDA rated 30% of U.S winter wheat in good-to-excellent condition, down two percentage points from a week ago. The rating was below the average of analyst expectations and the lowest for this time of year since 1996. Approximately 69% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was in an area experiencing drought as of April 12, the government said.

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