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Tuesday 15 March 2022

The markets seems to be pricing in on the FOMC meeting

US stock markets: Major U.S stock indexes tumbled on Friday as tech and growth shares led a broad decline and investors worried about the conflict in Ukraine while attention turned to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 229.88 points or 0.69%, the S&P 500 lost 55.21 points or 1.30% and the NASDAQ dropped 286.15 points or 2.18%. Notably, a key measure of U.S. inflation expectations climbed to 3% and near-record highs. That merely cemented expectations the Federal Reserve would lift rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting this week and signal more to come through members' "dot plot" forecasts.

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The dots will likely be mainly clustered around four or five hikes for 2022, up from three previously, given the stronger pace of inflation since the January FOMC meeting. We suspect we could also get an addendum on how the Fed plans to reduce the size of the balance sheet as early as this week.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.69%. The biggest gainers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were McDonald’s Corporation, which rose 2.19% or 4.87 points to trade at 226.87 at the close. Caterpillar Inc. added 1.44% or 3.04 points to end at 214.83 and The Travelers Companies Inc. was up 1.07% or 1.84 points to 173.73 in late trade. The biggest losers included Nike Inc., which lost 2.70% or 3.40 points to trade at 122.63 in late trade. Apple Inc. declined 2.39% or 3.79 points to end at 154.73 and JPMorgan Chase & Co shed 2.25% or 2.97 points to 128.89.

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NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index lost 2.18%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Terawulf Inc. which rose 49.29% to 9.51, Guardforce AI Co Ltd which was up 45.04% to settle at 0.78 and Clearside Biomedical Inc. which gained 42.59% to close at 1.92. The worst performers were Orphazyme which was down 45.75% to 0.68 in late trade, Zhongchao Inc. which lost 38.24% to settle at 1.05 and Exela Technologies Inc. which was down 32.68% to 0.57 at the close.

Oil price - Crude Oil market, Brent Oil market

Oil prices shed as much as $4 a barrel today, extending last week's decline as diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine geared up and markets braced for higher U.S interest rates. U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures eased $3.85 or 3.5% to $105.48 a barrel. 

Ukrainian and Russian negotiators are set to talk again via video link after both sides cited progress. Negotiators had given their most upbeat assessments after weekend negotiations, suggesting there could be positive results within days. 

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Oil prices might continue moderating this week as investors have been digesting the impact of sanctions on Russia, along with parties showing signs of negotiation towards ceasing fire. As markets had priced in for a much tighter supply from February to early March, the focus is shifting to the monetary policy in the upcoming FOMC meeting this week, which could strengthen the USD further, and pressure on commodity prices. 

The U.S Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 15-16 to decide whether or not to raise interest rates.

Precious and Base Metals - Gold price, Silver price, Palladium price

Gold prices fell today as U.S rate-hike expectations lifted Treasury yields to their highest in a month, while hopes for progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks improved risk appetite, denting bullion's appeal. 

Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Higher rates, aimed at curbing inflation, also dent gold's appeal as an inflation hedge. Spot gold was down 0.5% at $1,975.90 per ounce. U.S gold futures shed 0.3% to $1,979.90. One key reason is surging Treasury yields.

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Also market seems to be pricing in on the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting on Wednesday at which the U.S. Federal Reserve may start to kick off the tightening cycle. So, this is a negative factor for gold. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to a near one-month high as the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at a two-day event later this week. 

Our expectations are, barring any unforeseen events in the current Russia-Ukraine conflict, for the gold price to settle towards $1,900/oz over the following weeks. Global shares gained as diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine were stepping up on Monday, with Ukrainian and Russian negotiators set to talk again after both sides cited progress.

Palladium, used by automakers in catalytic converters to curb emissions, dipped 4.5% to $2,688.93 per ounce. The metal hit a record high of $3,440.76 last week, driven by fears of supply disruptions from top producer Russia. Russian mining giant Nornickel is facing significant logistics issues but has managed to secure alternative routes for its palladium deliveries. Among other metals, spot silver shed 0.6% to $25.64 per ounce, while platinum dropped 2.4% to $1,053.92.

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Traditional Agricultures - Corn futures, Wheat futures,  Soybean futures

Wheat and corn futures fell today on hopes supply from the Black Sea region could normalize as Russian and Ukrainian officials gave their most upbeat assessments yet of progress in their talks following Moscow's invasion of its neighbor. Soybean futures rose on Argentina's decision to halt exports registration of soy products, which could tighten the oilseed supplies already squeezed by drought.

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