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Wednesday 16 February 2022

The oil market remains tight and prices are still on course for a move towards $100 a barrel

Wall Street ended sharply higher yesterday, as signs of de-escalating tensions along the Russia-Ukraine border sparked a risk-on session. All three major indexes notched solid advances on the day, with market-leading tech and tech-adjacent stocks providing the biggest boost and putting the NASDAQ, which gained 2.5%, out front. 

The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index jumped 5.5% in its largest one-day percentage gain since March 2021. Geopolitical heat was turned down a notch after Russia said it had withdrawn some of its troops near the Ukraine border, prompting bullish equities sentiment and causing crude prices to slide on easing supply concerns. The announcement received guarded responses, and the United States and NATO said they had yet to see evidence of a drawdown.

Stocks briefly pared gains late in the session, when U.S President Joe Biden said that while diplomatic efforts are ongoing. Markets have been moving based on Putin or Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Economic Calendar

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.22%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Salesforce.com Inc., which rose 3.80% or 7.85 points to trade at 214.25 at the close. Meanwhile, Boeing Co added 3.66% or 7.69 points to end at 217.73 and American Express Company was up 2.93% or 5.63 points to 197.98 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Chevron Corp, which fell 0.73% or 0.99 points to trade at 134.26 at the close. 3M Company declined 0.42% or 0.67 points to end at 157.34 and International Business Machines was down 0.16% or 0.21 points to 129.94.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index added 2.53%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Resonant Inc. which rose 256.91% to 4.390, Color Star Technology Co Ltd which was up 93.11% to settle at 0.8881 and Tower Semiconductor Ltd which gained 42.08% to close at 47.07. The worst performers were Larimar Therapeutics Inc. which was down 52.09% to 4.010 in late trade, Hudson Capital Inc. which lost 31.82% to settle at 3.420 and Medpace Holdings Inc. which was down 20.30% to 138.87 at the close.

Trade Commodities Today! GOLD, SILVER, and OIL

Oil

Oil prices recouped losses today after slipping more than 3% in the previous session, as investors gauged the impact of easing Russia-Ukraine tension against a taut balance of tight global supplies and recovering fuel demand. U.S crude was at $92.71 a barrel, up 64 cents, or 0.7%, after the contract ended Tuesday's session down 3.6%.

The price of Brent jumped 50% in 2021, while WTI soared about 60%, as a global recovery in demand from the COVID-19 pandemic strained supply. Moscow's Tuesday announcement of a partial pullback in troops from Ukraine's borders was met with skepticism, as U.S President Joe Biden warned that more than 150,000 Russian troops were still massed near the borders. But beyond the Ukraine tension, the oil market remains tight and prices are still on course for a move towards $100 a barrel. Technically we could see prices heading back to $90 a barrel on profit-taking, but they will trend higher towards $100 as the economy is getting back on track.

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices ticked higher as the dollar slid on Wednesday after safe-haven bullion retreated from an eight-month high in the previous session on easing fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Spot gold gained 0.2% to $1,856.83 per ounce. U.S gold futures were nearly steady at $1,857.80. Gold prices touched their highest level since June last year on Tuesday, before reversing course to close almost 1% lower. 

Asian shares rallied after Moscow indicated it was returning some troops to base from exercises. Looking ahead, the more fungible dollar is the preferred safe haven to gold among core investors and could fall on any further de-escalation in the Ukraine crisis, prompting a rally in gold and vice-versa. The dollar dipped slightly on Wednesday, making greenback-priced bullion cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. 

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British consumer prices rose at the fastest annual pace in nearly 30 years last month, reinforcing the chances that the Bank of England will raise interest rates for the third meeting in a row. Elsewhere, the U.S. Federal Reserve will kick off its tightening cycle in March with a 25 basis-point interest rate hike, a Reuters poll found, but a growing minority says it will opt for a more aggressive half-point move to tamp down inflation. 

Besides weekly momentum indicators and buying the 'dip' indicating that the path of least resistance is higher, most traders do expect higher volatility to be a main-stay of gold markets going forth as rumors and market whispers increase. Among other precious metals, spot silver rose 0.8% to $23.53 per ounce, platinum firmed 0.3% to $1,028.28, and palladium climbed 1.7% to $2,286.52. Copper prices firmed today as easing fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine boosted risk appetite, with investors closely watching the release of the Federal Reserve's January policy meeting minutes for clues on the roadmap for rate hikes. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was up 0.2%.

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat and corn futures fell yesterday as Moscow’s announcement that some of its troops were returning to base after drills tempered investor fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine that could disrupt Black Sea export flows. Soybean fell as traders assessed chances for rain in dry growing belts in Argentina.

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