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Monday 19 July 2021

FOREX-Delta coronavirus variant made investors nervous

The dollar sat near its highest levels in months today as the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant made investors nervous about the global recovery and sent money into safety. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar fell to its weakest against the greenback since December early in the Asia session and hit a five-month low against the safe-haven yen. The dollar also rose broadly against Asian currencies. Daily infections have been surging from the United States and Europe to Asia and the global seven-day average of new cases each day is over half a million for the first time since May. Traders are holding their breath as England lifts most social curbs. The Aussie was last down 0.2% at $0.7381 and the New Zealand dollar also fell 0.2% to $0.6986. The yen, which rose broadly, was up 0.2% at 109.90 per dollar and up by about the same margin at 129.69 per euro. The market is really trading on the uncertainty in the air around COVID. That is the dominant factor, though adding a surprise fall in U.S consumer sentiment had also unsettled investors. The U.S. dollar index held at 92.729, not far from last week's three-month top of 92.832. The euro fetched $1.1801, just a touch away from last week's three-month low of $1.1772. The week's data calendar is fairly bare until Friday, when global purchasing managers' index figures are published, with policy and virus response expected in focus in the meantime as lockdowns tighten and expand in Asia. There is an outside chance China's benchmark loan prime rate is lowered on Tuesday and the European Central Bank, which meets on Thursday, has flagged a guidance tweak. Sterling, meanwhile, teetered at $1.3755, its lowest in more than a week, as hopes ride on so-called "Freedom day" with England betting its rush to vaccinate the population will mean people are less likely to fall seriously ill with COVID-19. Relaxed rules have already been greeted by a mixture of nerves and excitement by London clubbers in the wee hours, but the day also begins with epidemiologists skeptical and the prime minister, finance minister and health minister themselves isolating as cases spread. The UK's 'freedom day' today has some worried it could have a similar experience. Cryptocurrencies were steady in morning trade, with bitcoin holding near strong support at $31.590. Elsewhere the dollar continued its march higher on Asia's emerging market currencies. Nearly half of Australia's population of 25 million has been confined to their homes with Sydney, the country's largest city, in a five-week lockdown, and all of Victoria state under stay-at-home rules, after the fast-moving Delta strain triggered the country's worst outbreak for this year.

Euro

The single currency fell as Eurozone inflation slowed in June after a steady acceleration in the first months of 2021, official data confirmed on Friday, while the bloc's trade surplus shrank in May due to a decline of exports. European Union's statistics office Eurostat said consumer prices in the 19-country single-currency bloc rose 1.9% in June on the year. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1823 and a high of 1.1880 before closing the day around 1.1877 in the New York session.

Yen

The Japanese Yen steadied today as the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant made investors nervous about the global recovery and sent money into safety. Daily infections have been surging from the United States and Europe to Asia and the global seven-day average of new cases each day is over half a million for the first time since May. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 109.71 and a high of 110.24 before closing the day around 110.10 in the U.S session.

British Pound

The British Pound slipped against the dollar, and headed for its worst week in a month, as investors sought safety in the greenback amid concerns over rising COVID-19 cases globally. Solid U.S data and a shift in interest rate expectations after the Federal Reserve in June flagged sooner-than-expected hikes in 2023 have lent support to the greenback in recent weeks. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3754 and a high of 1.3898 before closing the day at 1.3897 in the New York session.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar fell to near a three-month low hurt by dismal economic data and weakness in oil prices. Canada’s scorching hot housing market is starting to cool, as buyers shift their focus from getting more space to getting back to normal after the COVID-19 pandemic, and the fear of missing out in the market fades into a prevailing sense of “wait and see.” Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2440 and a high of 1.2554 before closing the day at 1.2441 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar today hit its lowest level against the greenback for 2021 as COVID-19 lockdowns that have restricted the mobility of almost half of the country's population were extended to stop the spread of Delta variant. Simultaneous lockdowns in Australia's two largest cities, Sydney and Melbourne, which account for the bulk of the country's economic output and employment, hurt investor sentiment. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7408 and a high of 0.7485 before closing the day at 0.7421 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 35 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.63%.

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 1.15%.

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 36 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 1.15%.

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.54%.

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.67%.

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

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