The U.S dollar scaled two-year peaks, as a wave of risk aversion hit global markets

• The Chinese yuan posted its largest three-day losing streak in nearly four years
• The dollar is increasingly in vogue given the dimmer outlook for the world economy
• French President’s election victory over far-right rival Marine Le Pen quickly faded

Forex market 

The U.S. dollar scaled two-year peaks, as a wave of risk aversion hit global markets, while the Chinese yuan posted its largest three-day losing streak in nearly four years on growing worries of an economic slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. 

With the war in Ukraine entering the third month and growing concerns of a China-wide COVID-19 outbreak sparking a rout in Chinese stocks, investors dumped currency market darlings like the Australian dollar and the offshore Chinese yuan. Against a basket of its rivals, the dollar rose to 101.86, a level it last tested in March 2020. 

Economic Calendar

It was last at 101.76, up 0.7%, its largest daily percentage gain since March 11. The dollar is increasingly in vogue given the dimmer outlook for the world economy, coupled with the Federal Reserve's ever assertive rhetoric about big rate hikes to help it tame inflation. China's struggle to contain the COVID-19 is adding to risk aversion that's partly behind the dollar's dominance. 

The People's Bank of China on Monday said it would cut the FX reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 100 basis points to 8% beginning May 15, to "improve financial institutions' ability to use foreign exchange funds", according to an online statement. It was a move aimed at slowing the depreciation of the yuan. We expect this RRR cut to slow down CNY depreciation in the near term, though it would also depend on the broad U.S dollar path and overall sentiment toward Chinese growth. 

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The Aussie, which was one of the biggest gainers in currencies in the first quarter of 2022 thanks to surging commodity prices, fell broadly. It dropped 0.9% against the U.S. dollar. The euro's tiny gains after French President Emmanuel Macron's comfortable election victory over far-right rival Marine Le Pen quickly faded, with the single currency down 0.9% at $1.0717, against a resurgent dollar. The latest positioning data for last week showed hedge funds trimmed their long euro bets.

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Euro-EUR

The single currency traded lower with the war in Ukraine entering the third month and growing concerns of a China-wide COVID-19 outbreak sparking a rout in Chinese stocks. French President Emmanuel Macron's comfortable election victory over far-right rival Marine Le Pen quickly faded with the single currency down 0.9%. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.0769 and a high of 1.0850 before closing the day around 1.0797 in the New York session.

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Japanese Yen-JPY

The Japanese Yen steadied as markets faced a multitude of risks including central banks tightening policy just as economic growth momentum slows, investors have been buying up dollars. The dollar index, which measures the U.S currency against a basket of rivals, has risen 6.5% so far in 2022. It has gained 3.65% so far this month. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 127.71 and a high of 129.09 before closing the day around 128.53 in the U.S session.

British Pound-GBP

The British Pound fell yesterday to its lowest level since September 2020 against a strengthening dollar, while money markets scaled back their bets on future monetary policy tightening by the Bank of England. Money markets are pricing around 150 basis points (bps) of BoE interest rate hikes by the end of this year. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2820 and a high of 1.3033 before closing the day at 1.2830 in the New York session.

Forex and Commodities Trading Signals

Canadian Dollar-CAD

The Canadian Dollar will remain at the center of the country's financial system, the central bank chief said on Monday, responding to questions about a Conservative leadership candidate's pledge to make the country the blockchain capital of the world. There are promising benefits from innovation in the financial sector. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2565 and a high of 1.2723 before closing the day at 1.2708 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar-AUD

The Australian Dollar was deep underwater today as concerns about the impact of coronavirus lockdowns on Chinese demand sank commodity prices and risk trades in general. It has now shed 2.6% in just two sessions and risks further retracement. The Australian Dollar was undermined by sharp falls in commodity prices with iron ore - Australia's biggest export earner. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7358 and a high of 0.7416 before closing the day at 0.7410 in the New York session.

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Euro-Yen EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.19%.

Sterling-Yen GBP/JPY

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 1.38%.

Aussie-Yen AUD/JPY

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 76 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 1.62%.

Euro-Sterling EUR/GBP

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 53 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has gained 1.19%.

Sterling-Swiss GBP/CHF

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 1.15%.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

ECB President struck a dovish tone-the central bank might need to cut its growth outlook

• Fed Chair’s comments on Thursday seemed to back a half a percentage point tightening
• Powell on Thursday said a half-point interest rate increase "will be on the table"
• Sterling fell against the dollar to its lowest since November 2020 after-sales data

Forex market

The dollar surged to a more than two-year high on Friday, continuing to draw support from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments on Thursday that seemed to back a half a percentage point tightening at next month's policy meeting, as well as his remarks on likely consecutive rate hikes this year. 

The dollar index, a gauge of the greenback's value against six major currencies, hit 101.33, the highest since March 2020, It was last up 0.6% at 101.16, the largest daily percentage gain since mid-March. So far this year, the dollar index has gained 5.7%. The macro fundamentals are still pointing to a higher dollar as short-term Treasury yields vs comparable maturity on sovereign yields are positive and inflation is high globally. 

Economic Calendar

These macro drivers work well until the dollar reaches a level where economic growth is significantly impaired and the creditworthiness of U.S. government debt is suspect. Powell on Thursday said a half-point interest rate increase "will be on the table" when U.S. central bank meets on May 3-4. Fed funds futures have started to price in a third 50-basis-point hike in July, after the same increase in May and June, and nearly 250 basis points of cumulative increases in 2022. 

Even if the Fed does back-to-back-to-back 50 basis-point hikes, that's still at a rate that is at the bottom end or below neutral. They likely don't feel that it's excessive tightening because even after these hikes are put in place, the policy will still be loose, still accommodative. Across the Atlantic, the euro fell 0.4% to $1.0792, after European Central Bank officials sent mixed policy signals. 

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ECB President Christine Lagarde struck a dovish tone on Thursday by saying the central bank might need to cut its growth outlook a day after ECB dove Luis de Guindos joined some policymakers in calling for an early end of the bank's asset-buying scheme coupled with a rate rise in July. Investors are also waiting for Sunday's run-off of the French presidential elections between incumbent Emmanuel Macron and far-right challenger Marine Le Pen, with the latest polls showing Macron winning with 55% of the votes. Le Pen's win could provoke tensions with European allies and weigh on the euro. Sterling fell against the dollar to its lowest since November 2020 after-sales data and recent Bank of England comments signaled a possible slowdown in the expected rate hike path.

Day Trading or Swing Trading?

Euro-EUR

The single currency failed to gain a boost from pro-EU centrist Emmanuel Macron's re-election as France's president and as investors' fears about global growth outweighed their relief about far-right candidate Marine Le Pen's defeat. With 97% of votes counted, Macron was on course for a solid 57.4% of the vote, interior ministry figures showed. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.0769 and a high of 1.0850 before closing the day around 1.0797 in the New York session.

Japanese Yen-JPY

The Japanese Yen fell as the dollar surged to a more than two-year high on Friday, continuing to draw support from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments on Thursday that seemed to back a half a percentage point tightening at next month's policy meeting, as well as his remarks on likely consecutive rate hikes this year. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 127.71 and a high of 129.09 before closing the day around 128.53 in the U.S session.

British Pound-GBP

The British Pound traded lower as Britain's economy is losing steam as households face a tightening cost-of-living squeeze, according to data published on Friday which showed sliding retail sales and consumer confidence approaching all-time lows. The pound slid by more than a cent for the first time since November 2020. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2820 and a high of 1.3033 before closing the day at 1.2830 in the New York session.

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Canadian Dollar-CAD

The Canadian Dollar weakened to a five-week low against its US counterpart on Friday as oil prices dropped and the greenback broadly climbed, with the loonie sliding despite the Bank of Canada opening the door to larger interest rate hikes. The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, was burdened by the prospect of weaker global growth. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2565 and a high of 1.2723 before closing the day at 1.2708 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar-AUD

The Australian Dollar was back on the defensive on Friday after hawkish comments from U.S policymakers spooked equity markets and soured risk appetites. Meanwhile, Fed officials were confirming the likelihood of a 50-basis point rate rise in May and possibly moving by 75 basis points if needed. The hawkishness spilled over into local markets which narrowed the odds RBA could lift its 0.1% cash rate. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7358 and a high of 0.7416 before closing the day at 0.7410 in the New York session.

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Euro-Yen EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.19%.

Sterling-Yen GBP/JPY

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 1.38%.

Aussie-Yen AUD/JPY

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 76 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 1.62%.

Euro-Sterling EUR/GBP

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 53 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has gained 1.19%.

Sterling-Swiss GBP/CHF

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 1.15%.

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The Japanese yen bounced from a fresh two-decade low in yesterday’s session

• The Bank of Japan stepped into the market again to defend its ultra-low interest-rate policy
• Market expectations solidified for a first interest rate hike from the ECB as early as July
• The British pound climbed against the dollar, gaining after four days of losses

Forex market

The euro perked up to a one-week high today as market expectations solidified for a first interest rate hike from the European Central Bank as early as July. Joachim Nagel, president of Germany's Bundesbank, joined fellow policymakers this week in saying the ECB could raise interest rates at the start of the third quarter. 

Another policymaker Martins Kazaks said this week a rate hike in July "was possible". Against the U.S. dollar, the euro rose 0.4% to $1.0895 and its highest level since April 14. The euro's rise was quite broad-based, with the currency chalking up gains versus the yen, Swiss franc, and Norwegian crown. The euro is all about the ECB drumbeat for a July hike. Money markets are now pricing in a 20 basis point rise from the ECB by July and more than 70 basis points of cumulative increases by the end of 2022. That would take benchmark interest rates above zero for the first time since 2013. European political news was also supportive. 

Economic Calendar

French President Emmanuel Macron cleared a major hurdle ahead of Sunday's runoff election with a combative performance in a TV debate against far-right candidate Marine Le Pen. The Chinese yuan was the big loser in early London trading, its offshore unit declining nearly half a percent to 6.47 yuan per dollar and its lowest level since September. 

The British pound climbed against the dollar yesterday, gaining after four days of losses, with investor attention turning to potential policy signals from the Bank of England this week. Speeches today by Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann and Governor Andrew Bailey were seen as potentially key drivers for the pound. After data last week showed British consumer price inflation hit a thirty-year high of 7% in March, traders are watching for indications of how the BoE views the rating outlook. 

The BoE has recently softened its language on the need for more rate increases. IMF forecasts for British GDP growth this year were cut to 3.7% from January’s forecast of 4.7%.

Euro-EUR

The single currency perked up to a one-week high as market expectations solidified for a first interest rate hike from the ECB as early as July. President of Germany's Bundesbank joined fellow policymakers in saying the ECB could raise interest rates at the start of the 3rd quarter. Another policymaker Martins Kazaks said a rate hike in July "was possible". Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.0782 and a high of 1.0865 before closing the day around 1.0851 in the New York session.

Japanese Yen-JPY

The Japanese Yen bounced from a fresh two-decade low yesterday after the Bank of Japan stepped into the market again to defend its ultra-low interest-rate policy, drawing a sharp contrast with the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening path. The BOJ again offered to buy unlimited amounts of Japanese government bonds. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 127.43 and a high of 129.39 before closing the day around 127.82 in the U.S session.

British Pound-GBP

The British Pound climbed against the dollar yesterday, gaining after four days of losses, with investor attention turning to potential policy signals from the Bank of England this week. Speeches today by Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann and Governor Andrew Bailey are seen as potentially key drivers for the pound. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2989 and a high of 1.3069 before closing the day at 1.3066 in the New York session.

Canadian Dollar-CAD

The Canadian Dollar strengthened to its highest level in more than three weeks yesterday, as domestic inflation data bolstered expectations for another upsized interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada in June. Canada's annual inflation rate accelerated faster than expected in March, hitting a 31-year high of 6.7%, amid broad price pressures. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2469 and a high of 1.2622 before closing the day at 1.2496 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar-AUD

The Australian Dollar shot to seven-year highs against a sinking Japanese yen yesterday as major shifts in trade flows and bond yields favored the resource-heavy currencies. Such was the exodus of cash from the yen that it helped the Aussie stabilize on its U.S counterpart after a run of losses. At the same time, the conflict in Ukraine has lifted prices for many commodities. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7358 and a high of 0.7416 before closing the day at 0.7410 in the New York session.

Elliott Wave trading idea for S&P500 and Dow Jones - Easter holidays

Euro-Yen EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.20%.

Sterling-Yen GBP/JPY

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.26%.

Aussie-Yen AUD/JPY

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 76 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.24%.

Euro-Sterling EUR/GBP

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 53 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has gained 0.06%.

Sterling-Swiss GBP/CHF

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.14%.

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Elliott Wave trading idea for S&P500 and Dow Jones - Easter holidays

Hello traders and investors. Happy Easter holidays! I am Radi Valov, a professional trader and today I will share with you an update on my Elliott Wave analysis of US indices.

Anyone who wants to trace my previous analysis of US indices and get more info and see longer time frames can see them below:

21.03.2022: Elliott Wave trade idea for S&P500 and Dow Jones UPDATE

09.03.2020: Elliot Waves trading idea for S&P500 and Dow Jones UPDATE

25.02.2022: Elliot Waves trading idea for SP500 DowJones and Nasdaq 

15.02.2022: Elliot waves trading idea for SP500 and the Dow Jones 

04.02.2022: Elliott waves signal for S&P500  

31.01.2022: Elliott waves signals for SP500 and Dow Jones

After my last analysis, in both indices I'm looking at, the upward movement continued just below the targets I described as a supposed area in my analysis.

S&P500-Daily Chart

 

I consider the rise to the zone of 4640 for the S&P 500  and 35385 for the Dow Jones as wave (i) of wave  [iii]  of wave 5, after reaching these local peaks corrective downward movement is expected to develop (marked with wave (ii) in the trading chart).

In both indices, the structure of the corrective downward movement for wave (ii) appears to be a complete double zigzag.

S&P500-H4 Chart

 

My expectations are that after the bottom from April 12 - 34085 for the Dow Jones and from April 18 - 4361 for the S&P 500 the development of the next upward wave has begun, which will take both indices to the foot of their historical peaks.

In particular, I expect a possible target for the S&P 500 in the area around 4680-4710 and 35800-36300 for the Dow Jones, after which we can see a corrective movement again.

I would like to draw the attention of all those who pay attention to technical divergences: at the last bottom for this correction of the S&P 500 from April 18, the Dow Jones does NOT make a new bottom. This discrepancy usually occurs when reaching local bottoms or peaks and is a confirmation in itself that the current wave is exhausted and at its end.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Financial markets in the first-ever round of global "quantitative tightening"

US stock market: U.S stocks surged yesterday on the back of stronger than expected corporate earnings, but bleak forecasts on global economic growth pushed up bond yields and drove down oil. 

The tech-heavy NASDAQ led the way for gains in U.S markets, as many corporations began to report stronger than expected earnings. Those reports helped investors shake off warnings from global forecasters of a slowdown in economic growth, which weighed on other sectors like bonds and oil. Of the 49 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported quarterly earnings as of Tuesday, nearly 80% have topped profit estimates. 

Economic Calendar

The surge came even as global economic bodies began to air warnings on economic growth. Both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund slashed their global economic outlooks for 2022 by nearly a full percentage point, citing turmoil emanating from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the pitched battle against inflation worldwide.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.45%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Nike Inc., which rose 4.12% or 5.42 points to trade at 137.05 at the close. Meanwhile, Boeing Co added 3.41% or 6.13 points to end at 185.98 and Walt Disney Company was up 3.23% or 4.13 points to 131.90 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were The Travelers Companies Inc., which fell 4.89% or 9.06 points to trade at 176.16 at the close. Chevron Corp declined 1.18% or 2.06 points to end at 171.83 and Merck & Company Inc. was down 0.33% or 0.28 points to 85.79.

Forex News: Forex analysis

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index climbed 2.15%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Checkmate Pharmaceuticals Inc. which rose 329.46% to 10.35, Sono Group NV which was up 65.22% to settle at 7.60 and Toughbuilt Industries Inc. which gained 37.01% to close at 0.20. The worst performers were Lyra Therapeutics Inc. which was down 20.92% to 5.48 in late trade, Mawson Infrastructure Group Inc. which lost 18.71% to settle at 4.04, and Arqit Quantum Inc. which was down 16.33% to 10.45 at the close.

Oil price - Crude Oil market, Brent Oil market

Oil prices rebounded today from sharp losses in the previous session as concerns about tighter supplies from Russia and Libya dominated, while industry data showed a drop in U.S crude inventories last week. WTI crude futures contract, which expires today, rose 46 cents, or 0.5%, to $103.02 a barrel. The second-month contract gained 64 cents to $102.69 a barrel. 

Forex and Commodities Trading Signals

Global oil prices have been volatile, pulled higher by a tighter supply outlook following sanctions on Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter and a key European supplier, after its invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a "special operation". However, a softer global economic outlook and ongoing COVID-19 lockdowns in China that have hurt demand in the world's top crude importer are weighing on prices. 

On the supply side, the OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, produced 1.45 million barrels per day (bpd) below its production targets in March, as Russian output began to decline following sanctions imposed by the West.

Precious and Base Metals - Gold price, Silver price, Palladium price

Gold prices eased today, following a sharp drop in the previous session, as elevated U.S Treasury yields continued to pull investors away from zero-yield bullion. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,946.04 per ounce. U.S gold futures fell 0.5% to $1,949.50. In the previous session, gold prices fell up to 1.8% to an over one-week low as a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields overshadowed safe-haven inflows into bullion. 

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U.S. Treasury yields continued to surge to multi-year highs as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve to aggressively raise rates as the central bank tries to stem soaring inflation. Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates and higher yields, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. 

The dollar held near recent highs, making the greenback-priced gold less attractive for other currency holders. The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday slashed its forecast for global economic growth by nearly a full percentage point, citing Russia's war in Ukraine, and warned that inflation was now a "clear and present danger" for many countries. 

Major central banks, already plotting interest rate hikes in a fight against inflation, are also preparing a common pullback from key financial markets in the first-ever round of global "quantitative tightening" expected to restrict credit and add stress to an already-slowing world economy. Spot silver dipped 0.5% to $25.04 per ounce, platinum eased 1.1% to $979.74, and palladium edged down 0.1% to $2,369.36.

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Copper prices rose to their highest in two weeks yesterday, buoyed by hopes that more economic stimulus from China would boost demand from the world’s top consumer of the metal. China, which accounts for about half of global metals demand, will step up financial support for industries, companies, and people affected by COVID-19 outbreaks, the central bank said on Monday in its latest move to cushion the economic slowdown. 

Traditional Agricultures - Corn futures, Wheat futures,  Soybean futures

Corn was largely unchanged today in the Asian trading session and near a decade-high scale in the previous session, as traders fretted over planting delays in the United States and a lack of supplies from war-torn Ukraine. Soybeans and wheat inched higher earlier in today’s session.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.