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Friday 15 April 2022

Trade Zone Webinar - Live Market Update 20-04-2022

Join Simon Massey, a lead trader at Trade Room Plus, as he takes over the Trade Zone mantle for April. Register for this exclusive and free 30-minute webinar to help plan your next trade in real-time, as Simon looks ahead at the potential trading opportunities taking place as the weekend approaches. 

In this webinar, you'll learn:

  • The potential trading opportunities currently in play in the indices, forex, crypto, and commodities markets 
  • The key trade levels to set your trade entry and exit points 
  • Gain an understanding of Simon's own trading approach and the every day trading strategies he uses
  •  Find out how the week's events may affect the markets before Friday's market close

When is it: Wed, Apr 20, 2022, 12:00 PM - 12:30 PM EEST 

Don't miss out - reserve your spot, register today!

Join our all NEW Trading Week Ahead LIVE

When is it: 18-04-2022 | 6PM AEST (9AM BST)

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This presentation is for information and learning purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed as an invitation to pursue investment services, an invitation to enter into a transaction and/or investment advice, or a recommendation.

Thursday 14 April 2022

The US economy seems to be isolated enough and showing enough signs of inflation

  • The U.S dollar eased back from a nearly two-year high in yesterday’s trading session
  • The euro reversed course and turned positive ahead of a policy-setting meeting
  • The Canadian dollar rallied after the Bank of Canada yesterday raised interest rates

Forex market

The dollar lost ground against most major peers on Thursday, falling from a two-year peak hit overnight, as U.S. yields paused their march higher after U.S data released earlier in the week showed inflation lower than some analysts had feared. Even the battered yen had some respite, making a small recovery from a 20-year low hit overnight, though analysts reckoned the yen's tone remained weak. 

Otherwise, investors were awaiting a European Central Bank meeting later in the day, to see whether it was as hawkish as some of its global peers, after a spate of rate increases in recent days. The euro rose 0.2% yesterday ahead of the meeting, to $1.0911, and sterling gained 0.1% to a one-week

 high of $1.3141, both extending larger gains made in the previous session. Today's focus will be the ECB meeting, and we're looking for a relatively hawkish outcome, so that might give a bit of support to the euro in the near term. 

Economic Calendar

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six peers, was down 0.17% at 99.670, compared to yesterday's intraday peak of 100.52, its highest since May 2020. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was 2.6693%. It rose steadily earlier this month - driven by expectations of more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening to combat inflation - and reached as high as 2.836% on Tuesday, ahead of U.S. inflation figures. 

However, while high, these were not quite as bad as some had feared, which observers said caused yields to pause. Other central banks reinforced the hawkish global mood ahead of the ECB meeting. Earlier in the day, the Bank of Korea, surprised markets with a rate hike, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore also tightened policy. Yesterday, the Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of New Zealand both raised rates by 50 basis points, the largest hike for each in around 20 years.

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Euro-EUR

The single currency reversed course and turned positive ahead of a policy-setting meeting at the ECB today. Although the market is not anticipating any interest rate changes from the ECB at Thursday's meeting, market participants will be looking for a more hawkish tone from ECB President Christine Lagarde that could tee up a rate hike later in the year. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.0807 and a high of 1.0892 before closing the day around 1.0888 in the New York session.

Japanese Yen-JPY

The Japanese Yen weakened 0.19% versus the greenback. The Japanese yen pared losses against the dollar, which had soared to a nearly 20-year high against the yen at one point on Wednesday as aggressive tightening from the Federal Reserve contrasted sharply with the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 125.32 and a high of 126.30 before closing the day around 125.59 in the U.S session.

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British Pound-GBP

The British Pound dropped yesterday to its lowest level against the U.S dollar since November 2020 as British consumer price inflation leaped to its highest level in three decades. Raising doubts on how aggressive the Bank of England tightening measures will be, British consumer prices jumped to an annual rate of 7.0% in March. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2971 and a high of 1.3115 before closing the day at 1.3115 in the New York session.

Canadian Dollar-CAD

The Canadian Dollar strengthened against its U.S counterpart yesterday, recovering from its lowest level in nearly four weeks, as oil prices climbed and the Bank of Canada announced its biggest single interest rate hike in more than two decades. The central bank raised its benchmark overnight rate to 1% from 0.5%. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2552 and a high of 1.2673 before closing the day at 1.2566 in the New York session.

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Australian Dollar-AUD

The Australian Dollar hit a hurdle today when local jobs data failed to meet high expectations, though markets are convinced interest rates will still rise by June given mounting inflationary pressures. Bulls were disappointed when data showed unemployment stayed at 4.0% in March when they had looked for a drop to a 50-year low of 3.9%. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7358 and a high of 0.7416 before closing the day at 0.7410 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.81%.

Sterling-Yen GBP/JPY

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 1.11%.

Aussie-Yen AUD/JPY

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 76 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.17%.

Euro-Sterling EUR/GBP

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 53 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.32%.

Sterling-Swiss GBP/CHF

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 1.07%.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Wednesday 13 April 2022

Live Market Update Today with guest analyst Simon Massey

You still have time to register for today's Live Market Update, starting at 7 PM AEST (10 AM BST), with guest analyst Simon Massey of Trade Room plus. Register now to trade with an experienced market professional

Today's webinar will cover:

  • Find out what assets Simon is looking at this week from Indices, Forex, Crypto, and Futures markets heading into the weekend
  • A look back at the earlier trade ideas from this week’s Trading Week Ahead to see how the markets have progressed
  • A review of the reasons behind the movements made in the market and what we might expect moving forward
  • Live Q&A session to address all your market and trade-related queries and questions

Don't miss out - reserve your spot, register today!

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This presentation is for information and learning purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed as an invitation to pursue investment services, an invitation to enter into a transaction and/or investment advice, or a recommendation.

Cryptocurrency Essential webinar series 4th episode

Do you know what sets Solana apart from Cardano? In week four of our Cryptocurrency Essentials webinar series, our mentors at the Corellian Academy break down everything you need to know about the fastest blockchain in the world, and the potential trade opportunities available.

Topics to be covered this week:

  • An up-to-date overview of Solana (SOL), its recent performance, and its comparison with Cardano (ADA)
  • Digital currencies Corellian is focusing on this week, with key chart levels, and technical analysis
  • Learn how to adapt your trading strategy to 'trading a crypto cross' – Solana (SOL) VS Cardano (ADA)
  • A preview of Steller (XLM), an emerging cryptocurrency, and the reasons why Corellian is watching it
  • Real-time market analysis, with a focus on the upcoming week
  • Live Q&A with the cryptocurrency experts at Corellian

Don't miss out - reserve your spot, register today!

 When is it? Thursday 14th April 2022 | 7 PM AEST (10 AM BST)

 How long is it? 40 minutes

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This presentation is for information and learning purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed as an invitation to pursue investment services, an invitation to enter into a transaction and/or investment advice, or a recommendation.

Tuesday 12 April 2022

USD remains supported due to the Fed’s (Federal Reserve) active monetary policy

  • The euro fell on Tuesday unable to hold on to the post-French election gains
  • The dollar held firm supported by high U.S. yields ahead of inflation data expected
  • The greenback has gained almost 10% versus the yen in the past three months

Forex market

The euro fell today unable to hold on to the post-French election gains, as the dollar held firm supported by high U.S. yields ahead of inflation data expected to reinforce bets of aggressive monetary tightening. The euro fell 0.19% to $1.08625, after surging the previous day to $1.09550 on the news that incumbent President Emmanuel Macron beat far-right challenger Marine Le Pen in the first round of presidential voting. 

But ahead of U.S. inflation data, which is expected to show that prices gained the most in over 16 years, the dollar index edged 0.12% higher to 100.15, after hitting a fresh May 2020 high. USD remains supported due to the Fed’s (Federal Reserve) active monetary policy, but a lot has been priced in as regards monetary policy so the USD is probably going to find it increasingly difficult to appreciate further. 

Economic Calendar

The dollar's recent gains against the Japanese yen have been it's most striking. The greenback has gained almost 10% versus the Japanese currency in the past three months. It was trading 0.25% higher at 125.63 yen today, very close to a June 2015 high of 125.77 touched on the previous day. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the government was closely watching the yen and that excess volatility and disorderly movements could have an adverse effect on the economy and financial stability. 

The dollar also gained on the offshore Chinese yuan, reaching a two-week high of 6.390 before softening. U.S. consumer prices likely increased by the most in 16-1/2 years in March, according to a Reuters poll of economists, as the war in Ukraine pushed the cost of gasoline to record highs. Ahead of the data release due later today, U.S. longer-term yields inched higher, with the yield on benchmark 10-year notes rising to its highest since December 2018 at 2.8360%. Sterling dropped 0.17% after UK employment data showed the jobless rate slipped further below.

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Euro-EUR

The single currency is unable to hold on to the post-French election gains, as the dollar held firm supported by high U.S yields ahead of inflation data expected to reinforce bets of aggressive monetary tightening. The euro fell on the news that President Emmanuel Macron beat far-right challenger Marine Le Pen in the first round of presidential voting. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.0835 and a high of 1.0890 before closing the day around 1.0874 in the New York session.

Japanese Yen-JPY

The Japanese Yen has lost almost 10% versus the U.S Dollar in the past three months. Japanese policymakers warned today against any rapid moves in the foreign exchange market, underscoring the importance of stability as authorities kept a wary watch on the yen after it slumped to six-year lows against the dollar. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 123.64 and a high of 124.65 before closing the day around 124.28 in the U.S session.

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British Pound-GBP

The British Pound fell yesterday against the euro and the dollar after data showed the UK economy slowed more sharply than expected in February. Monthly gross domestic product rose by 0.1% in February, down from 0.8% growth in January. A poll of economists had forecast a 0.3% increase. Sterling initially drifted lower in the wake of the data miss. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2980 and a high of 1.3084 before closing the day at 1.3032 in the New York session.

Canadian Dollar-CAD

The Canadian Dollar weakened against the greenback yesterday and the yield on benchmark government debt climbed. Canadian government 10-year bond yields rose 7 basis points to 2.704%. The yield on similar U.S government benchmark debt rose to 2.7801%. U.S May crude futures fell $3.97 to settle at $94.29 a barrel yesterday. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2562 and a high of 1.2616 before closing the day at 1.2577 in the New York session.

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Australian Dollar-AUD

The Australian Dollar has drifted a bit lower during the trading session yesterday, as we continue to see a bit of negativity. However, there is at least a little bit of a fight left in the currency. The Reserve Bank of Australia had dropped the word “patience” from its statement and that had people thinking that perhaps they were much closer to raising interest rates than originally thought Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7358 and a high of 0.7416 before closing the day at 0.7410 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.24%.

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Sterling-Yen GBP/JPY

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.03%.

Aussie-Yen AUD/JPY 

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 76 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.01%.

Euro-Sterling EUR/GBP

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 53 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has gained 0.29%.

Sterling-Swiss GBP/CHF

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.31%.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Monday 11 April 2022

Investors are weighing the probability of a recession with two outcomes

US stock markets: The Dow rose and the S&P 500 ended lower in choppy trade on Friday, as beaten-down bank shares gained and investors grappled with how best to deal with an economy that could skid as the Federal Reserve moves to aggressively tackle inflation. 

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit a three-year high of 2.73%, helping boost the S&P banking index which rose 1.18%, after slumping to 13-month lows on Thursday. The index is down 10.8% year to date. Since peaking at two-month highs in late March, the market has trended lower as the Fed signals it will aggressively hike rates, leading investors to reposition their portfolios. 

Economic Calendar

Economically sensitive value shares this year have outperformed tech-heavy growth stocks, which often depend on low rates. Investors are weighing the probability of a recession with two outcomes. On the one hand, the Fed could engineer a soft landing with slowing but positive growth, making banks woefully oversold.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.40%. The biggest gainers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Home Depot Inc., which rose 2.76% or 8.36 points to trade at 311.11 at the close. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. added 2.30% or 7.24 points to end at 321.39 and JPMorgan Chase & Co was up 1.83% or 2.40 points to 133.49 in late trade. The biggest losers included Boeing Co, which lost 1.56% or 2.77 points to trade at 175.20 in late trade. Salesforce.com Inc. declined 1.49% or 2.99 points to end at 197.17 and Microsoft Corporation shed 1.46% or 4.40 points to 296.97.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index declined 1.34%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Phio Pharmaceuticals Corp which rose 159.18% to 2.35, Medavail Holdings Inc. which was up 39.01% to settle at 1.96, and Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd which gained 24.54% to close at 46.99. The worst performers were Kaleido Biosciences Inc. which was down 81.76% to 0.27 in late trade and Genocea Biosciences Inc. which lost 69.23% to settle at 0.40 and C4 Therapeutics Inc. which was down 50.57% to 11.32 at the close.

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Oil price - Crude Oil market, Brent Oil market

Oil prices slipped in early Asian trading, following the second straight weekly decline after world consumers announced plans to release crude from strategic stocks and as Chinese lockdowns continued. U.S West Texas Intermediate slid 1%. For several weeks, the benchmarks have been at their most volatile since June 2020. 

The market has been watching developments in China, where authorities have kept Shanghai, a city of 26 million people, locked down under its "zero tolerance" for COVID-19. China is the world's biggest oil importer. Member nations of the International Energy Agency (IEA) will release 60 million barrels over the next six months, with the United States matching that amount as part of its 180 million barrel release announced in March.

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The release could also deter producers, including the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and U.S. shale producers, from accelerating output increases even with prices around $100 a barrel.

Precious and Base Metals - Gold price, Silver price, Palladium price

Gold prices dipped in range-bound trading today, as elevated Treasury yields boosted the dollar and countered support from uncertainty around the Ukraine war, while palladium rose after London's decision to block trading of the metal from Russia. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,942.85 per ounce, after hitting a more than one-week high of $1,949.32 earlier in the day. U.S gold futures were up 0.1% at $1,947.40. 

Gold is still trading sideways and that reflects the conflicting currents that we're looking at. There are still real concerns about the geopolitical outlook and the potential for escalation in Ukraine. At the same time, a stronger U.S. dollar and the potential for higher interest rates around the globe are keeping a lid on enthusiasm for gold. 

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The U.S. dollar index gained ground, bolstered by U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hitting a more than three-year high and prospects of aggressive rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve to contain soaring inflation. A stronger dollar makes gold less attractive for other currency holders, while higher U.S. interest rates and yields increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which is also used as a hedge against inflationary pressures. 

Ukraine's armed forces braced on Monday for a new Russian offensive as powerful explosions rocked cities in the south and east, lending some support to the safe-haven metal. Palladium gained 3% at 2,499.19 after hitting a more than two-week high earlier in the session. The surge in palladium prices is likely to accelerate the shift from palladium to platinum for use in catalytic converters. 

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The auto-catalyst metal had gained 8.6% on Friday after newly refined Russian platinum and palladium was suspended from trading in London, the metals' biggest trade hub. Spot silver was up 0.1% at $24.77 per ounce and platinum rose 0.7% to $981.88.

Traditional Agricultures - Corn futures, Wheat futures,  Soybean futures

Wheat, soybean, and corn futures rose in early trading today, extending gains after the U.S. government's latest assessment of global supply and demand reflected the impact of the Ukraine crisis on Black Sea shipments. Grains prices have largely been underpinned by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has stalled large amounts of Ukrainian exports of wheat, corn, and sunflower oil.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.