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Wednesday, 13 April 2022

Cryptocurrency Essential webinar series 4th episode

Do you know what sets Solana apart from Cardano? In week four of our Cryptocurrency Essentials webinar series, our mentors at the Corellian Academy break down everything you need to know about the fastest blockchain in the world, and the potential trade opportunities available.

Topics to be covered this week:

  • An up-to-date overview of Solana (SOL), its recent performance, and its comparison with Cardano (ADA)
  • Digital currencies Corellian is focusing on this week, with key chart levels, and technical analysis
  • Learn how to adapt your trading strategy to 'trading a crypto cross' – Solana (SOL) VS Cardano (ADA)
  • A preview of Steller (XLM), an emerging cryptocurrency, and the reasons why Corellian is watching it
  • Real-time market analysis, with a focus on the upcoming week
  • Live Q&A with the cryptocurrency experts at Corellian

Don't miss out - reserve your spot, register today!

 When is it? Thursday 14th April 2022 | 7 PM AEST (10 AM BST)

 How long is it? 40 minutes

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This presentation is for information and learning purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed as an invitation to pursue investment services, an invitation to enter into a transaction and/or investment advice, or a recommendation.

Tuesday, 12 April 2022

USD remains supported due to the Fed’s (Federal Reserve) active monetary policy

  • The euro fell on Tuesday unable to hold on to the post-French election gains
  • The dollar held firm supported by high U.S. yields ahead of inflation data expected
  • The greenback has gained almost 10% versus the yen in the past three months

Forex market

The euro fell today unable to hold on to the post-French election gains, as the dollar held firm supported by high U.S. yields ahead of inflation data expected to reinforce bets of aggressive monetary tightening. The euro fell 0.19% to $1.08625, after surging the previous day to $1.09550 on the news that incumbent President Emmanuel Macron beat far-right challenger Marine Le Pen in the first round of presidential voting. 

But ahead of U.S. inflation data, which is expected to show that prices gained the most in over 16 years, the dollar index edged 0.12% higher to 100.15, after hitting a fresh May 2020 high. USD remains supported due to the Fed’s (Federal Reserve) active monetary policy, but a lot has been priced in as regards monetary policy so the USD is probably going to find it increasingly difficult to appreciate further. 

Economic Calendar

The dollar's recent gains against the Japanese yen have been it's most striking. The greenback has gained almost 10% versus the Japanese currency in the past three months. It was trading 0.25% higher at 125.63 yen today, very close to a June 2015 high of 125.77 touched on the previous day. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the government was closely watching the yen and that excess volatility and disorderly movements could have an adverse effect on the economy and financial stability. 

The dollar also gained on the offshore Chinese yuan, reaching a two-week high of 6.390 before softening. U.S. consumer prices likely increased by the most in 16-1/2 years in March, according to a Reuters poll of economists, as the war in Ukraine pushed the cost of gasoline to record highs. Ahead of the data release due later today, U.S. longer-term yields inched higher, with the yield on benchmark 10-year notes rising to its highest since December 2018 at 2.8360%. Sterling dropped 0.17% after UK employment data showed the jobless rate slipped further below.

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Euro-EUR

The single currency is unable to hold on to the post-French election gains, as the dollar held firm supported by high U.S yields ahead of inflation data expected to reinforce bets of aggressive monetary tightening. The euro fell on the news that President Emmanuel Macron beat far-right challenger Marine Le Pen in the first round of presidential voting. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.0835 and a high of 1.0890 before closing the day around 1.0874 in the New York session.

Japanese Yen-JPY

The Japanese Yen has lost almost 10% versus the U.S Dollar in the past three months. Japanese policymakers warned today against any rapid moves in the foreign exchange market, underscoring the importance of stability as authorities kept a wary watch on the yen after it slumped to six-year lows against the dollar. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 123.64 and a high of 124.65 before closing the day around 124.28 in the U.S session.

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British Pound-GBP

The British Pound fell yesterday against the euro and the dollar after data showed the UK economy slowed more sharply than expected in February. Monthly gross domestic product rose by 0.1% in February, down from 0.8% growth in January. A poll of economists had forecast a 0.3% increase. Sterling initially drifted lower in the wake of the data miss. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2980 and a high of 1.3084 before closing the day at 1.3032 in the New York session.

Canadian Dollar-CAD

The Canadian Dollar weakened against the greenback yesterday and the yield on benchmark government debt climbed. Canadian government 10-year bond yields rose 7 basis points to 2.704%. The yield on similar U.S government benchmark debt rose to 2.7801%. U.S May crude futures fell $3.97 to settle at $94.29 a barrel yesterday. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2562 and a high of 1.2616 before closing the day at 1.2577 in the New York session.

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Australian Dollar-AUD

The Australian Dollar has drifted a bit lower during the trading session yesterday, as we continue to see a bit of negativity. However, there is at least a little bit of a fight left in the currency. The Reserve Bank of Australia had dropped the word “patience” from its statement and that had people thinking that perhaps they were much closer to raising interest rates than originally thought Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7358 and a high of 0.7416 before closing the day at 0.7410 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.24%.

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Sterling-Yen GBP/JPY

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.03%.

Aussie-Yen AUD/JPY 

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 76 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.01%.

Euro-Sterling EUR/GBP

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 53 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has gained 0.29%.

Sterling-Swiss GBP/CHF

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.31%.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Monday, 11 April 2022

Investors are weighing the probability of a recession with two outcomes

US stock markets: The Dow rose and the S&P 500 ended lower in choppy trade on Friday, as beaten-down bank shares gained and investors grappled with how best to deal with an economy that could skid as the Federal Reserve moves to aggressively tackle inflation. 

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit a three-year high of 2.73%, helping boost the S&P banking index which rose 1.18%, after slumping to 13-month lows on Thursday. The index is down 10.8% year to date. Since peaking at two-month highs in late March, the market has trended lower as the Fed signals it will aggressively hike rates, leading investors to reposition their portfolios. 

Economic Calendar

Economically sensitive value shares this year have outperformed tech-heavy growth stocks, which often depend on low rates. Investors are weighing the probability of a recession with two outcomes. On the one hand, the Fed could engineer a soft landing with slowing but positive growth, making banks woefully oversold.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.40%. The biggest gainers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Home Depot Inc., which rose 2.76% or 8.36 points to trade at 311.11 at the close. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. added 2.30% or 7.24 points to end at 321.39 and JPMorgan Chase & Co was up 1.83% or 2.40 points to 133.49 in late trade. The biggest losers included Boeing Co, which lost 1.56% or 2.77 points to trade at 175.20 in late trade. Salesforce.com Inc. declined 1.49% or 2.99 points to end at 197.17 and Microsoft Corporation shed 1.46% or 4.40 points to 296.97.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index declined 1.34%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Phio Pharmaceuticals Corp which rose 159.18% to 2.35, Medavail Holdings Inc. which was up 39.01% to settle at 1.96, and Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd which gained 24.54% to close at 46.99. The worst performers were Kaleido Biosciences Inc. which was down 81.76% to 0.27 in late trade and Genocea Biosciences Inc. which lost 69.23% to settle at 0.40 and C4 Therapeutics Inc. which was down 50.57% to 11.32 at the close.

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Oil price - Crude Oil market, Brent Oil market

Oil prices slipped in early Asian trading, following the second straight weekly decline after world consumers announced plans to release crude from strategic stocks and as Chinese lockdowns continued. U.S West Texas Intermediate slid 1%. For several weeks, the benchmarks have been at their most volatile since June 2020. 

The market has been watching developments in China, where authorities have kept Shanghai, a city of 26 million people, locked down under its "zero tolerance" for COVID-19. China is the world's biggest oil importer. Member nations of the International Energy Agency (IEA) will release 60 million barrels over the next six months, with the United States matching that amount as part of its 180 million barrel release announced in March.

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The release could also deter producers, including the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and U.S. shale producers, from accelerating output increases even with prices around $100 a barrel.

Precious and Base Metals - Gold price, Silver price, Palladium price

Gold prices dipped in range-bound trading today, as elevated Treasury yields boosted the dollar and countered support from uncertainty around the Ukraine war, while palladium rose after London's decision to block trading of the metal from Russia. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,942.85 per ounce, after hitting a more than one-week high of $1,949.32 earlier in the day. U.S gold futures were up 0.1% at $1,947.40. 

Gold is still trading sideways and that reflects the conflicting currents that we're looking at. There are still real concerns about the geopolitical outlook and the potential for escalation in Ukraine. At the same time, a stronger U.S. dollar and the potential for higher interest rates around the globe are keeping a lid on enthusiasm for gold. 

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The U.S. dollar index gained ground, bolstered by U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hitting a more than three-year high and prospects of aggressive rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve to contain soaring inflation. A stronger dollar makes gold less attractive for other currency holders, while higher U.S. interest rates and yields increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which is also used as a hedge against inflationary pressures. 

Ukraine's armed forces braced on Monday for a new Russian offensive as powerful explosions rocked cities in the south and east, lending some support to the safe-haven metal. Palladium gained 3% at 2,499.19 after hitting a more than two-week high earlier in the session. The surge in palladium prices is likely to accelerate the shift from palladium to platinum for use in catalytic converters. 

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The auto-catalyst metal had gained 8.6% on Friday after newly refined Russian platinum and palladium was suspended from trading in London, the metals' biggest trade hub. Spot silver was up 0.1% at $24.77 per ounce and platinum rose 0.7% to $981.88.

Traditional Agricultures - Corn futures, Wheat futures,  Soybean futures

Wheat, soybean, and corn futures rose in early trading today, extending gains after the U.S. government's latest assessment of global supply and demand reflected the impact of the Ukraine crisis on Black Sea shipments. Grains prices have largely been underpinned by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has stalled large amounts of Ukrainian exports of wheat, corn, and sunflower oil.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Euro rallied after French leader Emmanuel Macron beat far-right challenger Marine Le Pen

  • The dollar gained on expectations the Federal Reserve will act quickly to stem inflation
  • Macron's lead in the first round provided some respite for the euro
  • The U.S dollar gained as much as 0.5% versus the Australian and New Zealand dollars

Forex market

The euro looked set to snap a seven-day losing streak versus the dollar today, as the single currency rallied after French leader Emmanuel Macron beat far-right challenger Marine Le Pen in the country's first round of presidential voting. 

Investor concerns about the future direction of the euro zone's second-biggest economy have weighed on the euro and added to worries over the economic costs of war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the dollar has been pushed higher by rising U.S. yields and expectations the Federal Reserve will act quickly to stem inflation. 

Economic Calendar

Macron will face Le Pen in what promises to be a tightly fought French presidential election runoff on April 24. Nonetheless, Macron's lead in the first round provided some respite for the euro - lifting it by as much as three-quarters of a percent in Asian trading hours to $1.0955. It was last up 0.4% at $1.09150. 

Currency analysts said the contest remained on a knife edge with negative implications for the euro. The narrower than expected victory for President Macron will keep alive fears that there is an outside chance that Le Pen can become president. The first-round results and the opinion polls pointing towards a close result in the second round will remain a modest weight on the euro in the coming weeks. 

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The dollar index - which tracks the greenback against a basket of six peers - was broadly flat on the day, just shy of the 100 mark hit last week for the first time in nearly two years. As the dollar has gained ground, the Japanese yen has been subjected to some of the strongest selling pressure, with investors seeing little reason to exit bets against the yen while the Bank of Japan holds yields near zero. There's nothing there to frighten people out of dollar/yen positions. Sterling was broadly flat versus the dollar at $1.30290.

Euro-EUR

The single currency looked set to snap a seven-day losing streak versus the dollar as the single currency rallied after French leader Emmanuel Macron beat far-right challenger Marine Le Pen in the country's first round of presidential voting. Investor concerns about the future direction of the euro zone's second-biggest economy have weighed on the euro. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.0835 and a high of 1.0890 before closing the day around 1.0874 in the New York session.

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Japanese Yen-JPY

The Japanese Yen fell to a seven-year low versus the dollar. It was last down three-quarters of a percent. As the dollar has gained ground, the Japanese yen has been subjected to some of the strongest selling pressure, with investors seeing little reason to exit bets against the yen while the Bank of Japan holds yields near zero. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 123.64 and a high of 124.65 before closing the day around 124.28 in the U.S session.

British Pound-GBP

The British Pound has attracted some significant bids to nearly amid optimism over a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The comments from the Kremlin on Friday that Russia's special operation in Ukraine could be completed in foreseeable future given aims are being achieved and work is being carried out by the military and peace negotiators. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2980 and a high of 1.3084 before closing the day at 1.3032 in the New York session.

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Canadian Dollar-CAD

The Canadian Dollar traded higher as Canada's unemployment rate fell to 5.3% in March, the lowest level on record, highlighting the tightening of the country's labor market, data showed on Friday, with the economy adding a net 72,500 jobs. The job gain was slightly below analyst predictions of 80,000, while the unemployment rate met expectations. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2562 and a high of 1.2616 before closing the day at 1.2577 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar-AUD

The Australian Dollar looked deflated on Friday, having been dragged from multi-month peaks as markets pumped up pricing for U.S. interest rate hikes. The Aussie fared better on the crosses, gaining 0.9% for the week on an ailing Japanese yen while the euro shed 1.4% against the Australian currency and touched a five-year low. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7358 and a high of 0.7416 before closing the day at 0.7410 in the New York session.

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Euro-Yen EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.24%.

Sterling-Yen GBP/JPY

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.03%.

Aussie-Yen AUD/JPY

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 76 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.01%.

Euro-Sterling EUR/GBP

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 53 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has gained 0.29%.

Sterling-Swiss GBP/CHF

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.31%.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Live Market Update: Indices and Forex in the Spotlight

Join us once again as Simon Massey, a lead trader at Trade Room Plus, discusses the major assets he's looking at as markets open today and he shares with you the levels you need to be tracking as you start your new trading week.

In this webinar, you'll learn: 

  • The potential trading opportunities currently in play in the indices, forex, crypto, and commodities markets 
  • The key trade levels to set your trade entry and exit points
  •  Gain an understanding of Simon's own trading approach and the every day trading strategies he uses
  •  Find out how the week's events may affect the markets before Friday's market close

JOIN SIMON THIS WEDNESDAY FOR THIS WEEK’S LIVE MARKET UPDATE. REGISTER NOW

Register for this exclusive and free 30-minute webinar to help plan your next trade in real-time, as Simon looks ahead at the potential trading opportunities taking place as the weekend approaches.

Watch today's video as he discusses the present positions of  U.S. and European indices, forex, and Bitcoin.

 Watch the video below to get all of Simon’s latest thoughts

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This presentation is for information and learning purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed as an invitation to pursue investment services, an invitation to enter into a transaction and/or investment advice, or a recommendation.

Thursday, 7 April 2022

The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hovered close to multi-year highs

US stock markets: Stock indexes fell yesterday and the U.S dollar surged to a nearly two-year peak after the Federal Reserve released minutes from its last meeting that reinforced views the central bank may tighten aggressively to curb inflation. 

The benchmark U.S 10-year Treasury yield rose, but was off its session high after the minutes, while oil prices fell sharply on the day. Trading was choppy on Wall Street following the minutes, with stocks briefly paring losses and then extending them. The NASDAQ ended down more than 2%, leading to declines among the major indexes. 

The Fed is determined to rein in inflation, and we just hope and pray that there will be a soft landing of the economy and not a hard landing that sends us into a recession. According to minutes of the March 15-16 policy meeting, Fed officials "generally agreed" to cut up to $95 billion a month from the central bank's asset holdings as another tool in the fight against surging inflation, even as the war in Ukraine tempered the first U.S. interest rate increase.

Economic Calendar

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.42%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, which rose 2.70% or 13.99 points to trade at 531.75 at the close. Meanwhile, Johnson & Johnson added 2.60% or 4.62 points to end at 182.23 and Walmart Inc. was up 2.32% or 3.52 points to 154.99 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Salesforce.com Inc., which fell 4.44% or 9.32 points to trade at 200.82 at the close. Microsoft Corporation declined 3.66% or 11.38 points to end at 299.50 and Visa Inc. Class A was down 3.13% or 7.08 points to 219.01.

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NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index fell 2.22%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Advent Technologies Holdings Inc. which rose 79.70% to 3.63, Moxian Inc. which was up 39.76% to settle at 2.32 and Mobiquity Technologies Inc. which gained 29.63% to close at 2.10. The worst performers were Guardforce AI Co Ltd which was down 32.54% to 1.14 in late trade, GWG Holdings Inc. which lost 25.14% to settle at 2.62 and Integrated Media Technology Ltd which was down 21.44% to 20.52 at the close.

Oil price - Crude Oil market, Brent Oil market

Oil futures fell sharply yesterday after large consuming nations said they would release oil from reserves to counter tightening supply and hawkish minutes from the U.S central bank that bolstered the dollar. Selling accelerated into the close, leaving both the Brent and West Texas Intermediate benchmarks at their lowest closing levels since March 16. 

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U.S crude fell $5.73, or 5.6%, to $96.23 a barrel. Member states of the International Energy Agency (IEA) will release 120 million barrels from strategic reserves to try to quell price gains. The release will include 60 million from the United States, according to two sources familiar with the matter. That commitment forms part of the previous U.S announcement of a 180 million-barrel reserve release. This is the second time the IEA has released reserves this year and effectively boosts worldwide supply by roughly 2 million barrels a day for at least the next two months as the world tries to overcome the potential loss of Russian oil.

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Precious and Base Metals - Gold price, Silver price, Palladium price

Gold was flat in range-bound trade today, as the uncertainty over the Ukraine conflict offset pressure from the firmer dollar and yields following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s aggressive stance to combat inflation. Spot gold was flat $1,925.61 per ounce. U.S gold futures was up 0.3% to $1,927.90. With the correlation between gold and Treasury yields breaking, the war and high inflation take precedence over the Treasury bills. And that’s the reason why we’ve seen gold prices actually holding well, but also not going up because of the pressure of high-interest rates. 

The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hovered close to multi-year highs hit in the previous session, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Many Fed officials said they were prepared to raise rates in half-percentage-point increments in coming policy meetings to tame inflation, according to the minutes released yesterday. 

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The dollar hovered near a two-year high against a basket of currencies after Fed minutes showed the central bank is preparing to move aggressively to head off inflation. A stronger dollar makes gold less attractive for other currency holders. However, an escalation in geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and people waiting for the Western countries to impose fresh sanctions on Russia - all these are supporting gold. 

Ukraine wants sanctions that are economically destructive enough for Russia to end its war after accusing some countries of still prioritizing money over punishment for civilian killings that the West condemns as war crimes. Spot silver fell 0.5% to $24.32 per ounce, platinum shed 0.5% to $948.34 and palladium rose 1.4% to $2,228.01.

Traditional Agricultures - Corn futures, Wheat futures,  Soybean futures

Grains futures rose in early Asian trading today ahead of a weekly export sales report from the U.S Department of Agriculture, while traders kept a close watch on the Ukraine crisis that has disrupted global supplies. Ahead of the USDA report, analysts expected the government to report U.S. corn sales in the week ended March 31 at 575,000 tonnes to 1.4 million tonnes, soybean sales at 600,000 tonnes to 1.550 million tonnes and wheat sales at 100,000 to 750,000 tonnes. Weather forecasts showed little rain for the coming two weeks.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.