Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation" to disarm its neighbor

US stock markets:  U.S stock indexes slid in yesterday’s session, dragged lower by Apple, energy, and bank shares, ahead of the first face-to-face peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in more than two weeks. 

Oil majors Exxon and Chevron fell over 2% each after crude prices tumbled more than 7% on rising fears about weaker fuel demand in China due to a surge in COVID-19 infections. Apple Inc. slipped 0.6%, weighing the most on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ indexes after a report said the company was planning to cut iPhone and AirPod output as rising inflation starts to weigh on demand for consumer electronics. 

Economic Calendar

Strong economic data and gains in beaten-down growth stocks have powered Wall Street’s main indexes in recent days despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve policymakers. Banks declined 2.3% after a recent run-up on expectations that the Fed could push harder and faster to tame inflation running at four-decade highs. Morgan Stanley downgraded U.S. banks, saying rate hikes have been priced in.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.27% to hit a new 1-month high. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Microsoft Corporation, which rose 2.31% or 7.02 points to trade at 310.70 at the close. Meanwhile, Salesforce.com Inc. added 2.01% or 4.25 points to end at 215.28, and Walmart Inc. was up 1.78% or 2.55 points to 146.00 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Chevron Corp, which fell 1.75% or 2.96 points to trade at 166.35 at the close. Dow Inc. declined 0.91% or 0.59 points to end at 64.11 and JPMorgan Chase & Co was down 0.74% or 1.05 points to 140.87.

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NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index gained 1.31%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation which rose 81.25% to 2.32, DatChat Inc. which was up 61.45% to settle at 2.68, and Newegg Commerce Inc. which gained 43.41% to close at 7.40. The worst performers were Clever Leaves Holdings Inc. which was down 50.26% to 1.91 in late trade, Neuroone Medical Technologies Corp which lost 46.85% to settle at 1.18, and Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was down 35.96% to 16.01 at the close.

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Oil price - Crude Oil market, Brent Oil market

Oil prices today extended losses from the previous day as Ukraine and Russia headed for peace talks and on concerns about demand as China's financial hub of Shanghai shut down to curb a surge in COVID-19 cases. U.S crude futures were down 59 cents, or 0.6%, at $105.37after hitting a low of $103.46.

Ukraine and Russia were set to meet in Istanbul today for their first peace talks in over two weeks. Sanctions imposed on Russia after it invaded Ukraine have curtailed oil supply and sent prices to 14-year highs earlier this month. Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation" to disarm its neighbor. Oil prices are under pressure again on expectations for peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, which could lead to an easing or avoidance of Western sanctions on Russian oil. A successful ceasefire could also raise the prospect of reviving an Iranian nuclear deal. 

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Selling pressure grew on concerns that China may impose more restrictions in other places to contain the pandemic.

Precious and Base Metals - Gold price, Silver price, Palladium price

Gold prices were steady today as the U.S. dollar held firm and Treasury yields climbed, while market participants looked forward to Russia-Ukraine peace talks starting later in the day. Spot gold was unchanged at $1,921.74 per ounce, having fallen as much as 2.1% on Monday. U.S gold futures were down 0.9% at $1,922.60. 

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The lingering geopolitical risk is offering a little bit of support, but the big elephant in the room would be the U.S Federal Reserve moving into a more restrictive territory given the inflation angst that's hitting the markets right now. With the Fed completely moving into data dependence, I think a strong payroll number could strengthen the dollar, shoot yields a little bit higher and that could obviously work quite negatively for gold, but I don't think there's a real knockout below until the war premium gets completely evaporated. 

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The dollar index held firm near a three-week high hit in the previous session, making gold more expensive for other currency holders. U.S. benchmark 10-year yields hovered close to three-year highs, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Ukraine said its top objective at the first face-to-face talks with Russia in more than two weeks, due to take place in Turkey on Tuesday, was to secure a ceasefire, although both it and the United States were skeptical of a major breakthrough.

Gold has resistance at $1,965 and $1,975 an ounce. Support lies at $1,917 and $1,910. Spot silver was up 0.1% at $24.86 per ounce, platinum was flat at $984.78 and palladium rose 2.6% to $2,291.28.

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Traditional Agricultures - Corn futures, Wheat futures,  Soybean futures

Wheat, corn, and soybean futures fell in yesterday’s trading session as worries over coronavirus cases in China weighed on commodity markets while grain traders also adjusted positions ahead of key U.S crop reports due later this week. The broad selloff in commodities continued into midday today, as fund managers react to massive shutdowns in China due to COVID, as well as to lingering hopes for peace talk success in Ukraine. 

Ukraine and Russia were preparing for the first face-to-face peace talks in more than two weeks, but a senior U.S official said Russian President Vladimir Putin did not appear ready to make compromises to end the war.

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U.S Fed expected to deliver a half-point interest rate rise in May to tackle rising inflation

• The dollar hit a six-year high versus the yen after the BoJ moved to contain rising bond yields
• U.S Treasury yields soared to new multi-year highs
• Interest rate hike expectations helped lift the dollar to its highest in two weeks

Forex market

The dollar hit a six-year high versus the yen after the Bank of Japan moved to contain rising bond yields, while U.S Treasury yields soared to new multi-year highs, highlighting a divergence between the BOJ and other major central banks. 

Treasury 10-year yields vaulted above 2.5% to three-year highs, with the U.S Federal Reserve expected to deliver a half-point interest rate rise in May as it tackles rising inflation, having kicked off its tightening cycle this month. 

We now expect the FOMC to hike by 50 bps at the next two meetings before shifting back to a 25-bps-per meeting cadence for the remainder of the year. Interest rate hike expectations helped lift the dollar to its highest in two weeks against a basket of six major peer currencies. Against the yen, the dollar surged as much as 2.5% to its highest level since August 2015 and the biggest one-day rise since March 2020.

Economic Calendar

Yen losses in March surpass 7% and the currency is set for its biggest monthly and quarterly falls since 2016. The dollar was last up 1.34% against the Japanese currency at 123.715 yen. Struggling to swim against the tide lifting interest rates higher globally, the BOJ staunchly defended its 0.25% yield cap on Monday by offering to buy an unlimited amount of government bonds (JGBs) for the first four days of this week. While that did not stop 10-year yields from hitting the upper limit of the BOJ's policy band, it sent the yen spiraling. 

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On net, JGBs mostly shook off what was just a repeated gesture to defend the 10-year yield ceiling but the signal toward expanding money supply contributed to yen softness alongside the more dominant Federal Reserve effects on the dollar. The Japanese currency also lost ground against the euro, which is increasingly underpinned by expectations the European Central Bank will join the rate hike club this year. The euro gained 1.27% to 135.895 yen, a four-year high.

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Euro-EUR

The single currency edged up against the greenback. The single currency's fortunes this week could be determined by inflation figures from major European economies, with the bloc's harmonized HICP inflation seen edging up to 6.5% in March. The U.S Federal Reserve expected to deliver a half-point interest rate rise in May as it tackles rising inflation. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.0979 and a high of 1.1036 before closing the day around 1.0981 in the New York session.

Japanese Yen-JPY

The Japanese fought to regain a footing, recovering a little from heavy selling as some traders start to see risks of official pushback if Japan's currency falls much further. The yen has been hammered some 7% lower through March as the BoJ has stuck with dovish policy settings. Japan's central bank bought a little more than $500 million in bonds. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 121.16 and a high of 122.41 before closing the day around 122.13 in the U.S session.

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British Pound-GBP

The British Pound fell as investors focused on monetary policy divergence between Britain, the United States and the euro area. In a speech in Brussels, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey largely stuck to the tone of this month’s interest rate announcement, in which officials softened their language on the need for further rate hikes.. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3157 and a high of 1.3223 before closing the day at 1.3183 in the New York session.

Canadian Dollar-CAD

The Canadian Dollar weakened against its U.S counterpart yesterday, pulling back from a two-month high, as oil prices tumbled and the greenback broadly climbed. It follows nine straight days of gains for the currency, the longest winning streak since August 2016. On Friday, it touched its strongest level since Jan. 20 at 1.2462. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2462 and a high of 1.2550 before closing the day at 1.2473 in the New York session.

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Australian Dollar-AUD

The Australian Dollar hovered near multi-year peaks on the yen and euro today as commodity prices looked set to remain high for an extended period, delivering a sustained export boost to the resource-heavy currencies. That outlook represented major terms of trade shock for Japan, which imports most of its resources. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7358 and a high of 0.7416 before closing the day at 0.7410 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.30%.

Sterling-Yen GBP/JPY

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.19%.

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Aussie-Yen AUD/JPY

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 76 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.11%.

Euro-Sterling EUR/GBP

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 53 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.12%.

Sterling-Swiss GBP/CHF

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.02%.

CFD News: US Stock Markets

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Inflation figures from major European economies are due on Wednesday

•  Bank of Japan intervened to stop government bond yields from rising above their key target
• The market sees monetary policy divergence between the U.S and Japan as the key driver
• Potentially driving the dollar this week is Friday's non-farm payroll data in the U.S

Forex market

The Japanese yen slipped nearly 1% to a six-year today after the Bank of Japan intervened to stop government bond yields from rising above its key target, while rising U.S yields pushed the dollar higher against other currencies too. 

The BOJ, which has repeatedly said it is committed to keeping monetary policy loose, on Monday made two offers to buy an unlimited amount of government bonds with maturities of more than five years and up to 10 years. The central bank is aiming to stop rising global interest rates from pushing up Japanese yields. 

The dollar climbed roughly 0.95% to 123.25 yen, its highest since December 2015. It rallied over 7% so far in March, its biggest monthly gain in over five years. The market sees monetary policy divergence between the U.S and Japan as the key driver of dollar-yen, so in contrast to the hawkish Fed comments recently, the (BOJ's action) gives the impression that the BOJ remains dovish, and that's leading to a higher dollar-yen. 

Economic Calendar

I think the risk is still to the upside in the near term, especially if this monetary policy divergence story stays intact. But the speed has been quite fast and it does seem a little overheated, so if we see any contrary headlines, we could see some correction as well. The 10-year Treasuries yield was last at 2.5567%, its highest since May 2019, and up 6.5 basis points on the day, as traders position themselves for an aggressive series of rate hikes from the U.S Federal Reserve. 

The two-year yield was 2.412%, its highest since April 2019, with these higher rates underpinning the dollar. The greenback index against a basket of major rivals advanced 0.38% to 99.194. Inflation figures from major European economies and the Euro Zone are due from Wednesday, which could also affect the direction of the euro. 

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Also potentially driving the dollar this week is Friday's non-farm payroll data in the U.S., though given the market is already positioned for an aggressive pace of rate hikes this year, its effect could be muted say, analysts. The Aussie dollar bucked the trend, however, inching higher to $0.7513 to hold near last week's four-month high, helped on the day by rising Australian bond yields, as well as the longer-term impact of higher commodity prices. Aussie currency watchers are also looking out for Australia's budget on Tuesday.

Euro-EUR

The single currency will remain heavy this week. The balance of risks suggests EUR/USD may test 1.0800 in the coming weeks. Inflation figures from major European economies and the Eurozone are due from Wednesday, which could also affect the direction of the euro. Also potentially driving the dollar this week is Friday's nonfarm payroll data in the U.S. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.0979 and a high of 1.1036 before closing the day around 1.0981 in the New York session.

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Yen-JPY 

The Japanese Yen slipped nearly 1% to a six-year low on Monday, after the Bank of Japan intervened to stop government bond yields from rising above its key target while rising U.S yields pushed the dollar higher against other currencies too. The BOJ has repeatedly said it is committed to keeping monetary policy loose. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 121.16 and a high of 122.41 before closing the day around 122.13 in the U.S session.

British Pound-GBP

The British Pound steadied against the U.S dollar and euro on Friday after consumer morale fell to its lowest level in 16 months and retail sales unexpectedly declined. The Office for National Statistics said February retail sales volumes were down by 0.3% from January as stormy weather deterred some shoppers from venturing out. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3157 and a high of 1.3223 before closing the day at 1.3183 in the New York session.

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Canadian Dollar-CAD

The Canadian Dollar strengthened to its highest level in more than two months against the greenback on Friday as oil prices rose and comments by a Bank of Canada deputy governor reinforced the central bank’s hawkish stance on interest rates. It was the ninth consecutive day of gains for the currency, which is the longest winning streak since August 2016. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2462 and a high of 1.2550 before closing the day at 1.2473 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar-AUD

The Australian Dollar has been on a tear versus most of its major peers in recent weeks, boosted by rising commodity prices and a rebound in market sentiment. Upbeat domestic economic data has also helped to lift the Aussie Dollar. Last week, Australia’s March purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the manufacturing and services sectors showed that the post-lockdown economy continues to improve. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7358 and a high of 0.7416 before closing the day at 0.7410 in the New York session.

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Euro-Yen EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.30%.

Sterling-Yen GBP/JPY

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.19%.

Aussie-Yen AUD/JPY

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 76 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.11%.

Euro-Sterling EUR/GBP

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 53 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.12%.

Sterling-Swiss GBP/CHF

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.02%.

Elliott wave trading idea for Gold and Silver safe assets trade

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Elliott wave trading idea for Gold and Silver safe assets trade

Hello traders and investors. I am Radi Valov, a professional trader, and today I would like to make a quick update to my commodities analysis of Gold and Silver.

Anyone who wants to can trace my previous commodities analysis of Gold and Silver with larger and older time frames can see them below:

14.03.2020: Elliott waves trading idea for Gold and Silver safe assets UPDATE

28.02.2022: Elliot Waves trading idea for Gold, Silver, and Gdx 

14.02.2022: Elliott waves signal for Gold update

07.02.2022: Elliott waves signal for Silver

04.02.2022: Elliott waves signal for Gold

Let's start with the gold trading chart.

Gold Daily Chart

After reaching the top in the area of 2070, a downward movement for wave (ii) develops. At the moment, the fall has a structure of completed zigzag to the bottom in the area of 1890. Most likely this zigzag is only part of the wave (ii), and not the whole correction, so I put? it on the chart. The structure of the correction allows this week to see another two upward movements to the area around 1980-2030, followed by a new downward movement that will find support in the area around 1850 for the end of wave (ii).

Silver Weekly Chart

The two metals are currently in a fairly good correlation. The situation is similar to silver. From the top, for wave (i) we have a completed triple down with a zigzag correction structure to the bottom in the area of 24,400. Then began the development of lateral upward movement, which is more likely a wave b / x. I expect to see another rise to around 25,900 this week, followed by another downward movement, which will find support in around 23,900 for the end of wave (ii).

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Demand for Gold and other precious metal ETF's remains remarkably strong

US stock markets: Street pushed stocks and Treasury yields down yesterday after both had powered higher earlier in the week as investors took in the strength of the economy and hawkish comments from U.S policymakers. Two-year U.S Treasury yields have risen sharply so far in March and were set for their biggest monthly jump since 2004. Investors have been relatively sanguine about the implications of higher yields on stock market valuations, with many choosing to buy back in after a bruising few months for equity prices. 

Economic Calendar

The economics conversation came as Western leaders began gathering in Brussels to plan more measures to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt his month-old Ukraine campaign; Putin, in response, said Moscow planned to switch its gas sales to "unfriendly" countries to roubles. 

Oil prices rose in volatile trading, supported by disruption of Russian and Kazakh crude exports. U.S crude recently rose 4.71% to $114.42 per barrel and Brent was at $121.37, up 5.1% on the day.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.29%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Chevron Corp, which rose 1.06% or 1.74 points to trade at 165.83 at the close. Meanwhile, Apple Inc. added 0.82% or 1.39 points to end at 170.21 and Merck & Company Inc. was up 0.53% or 0.42 points to 79.72 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Home Depot Inc., which fell 3.88% or 12.78 points to trade at 316.95 at the close. Salesforce.com Inc. declined 3.25% or 7.09 points to end at 211.12 and Cisco Systems Inc. was down 3.01% or 1.69 points to 54.48.

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NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index declined 1.32%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Creative Medical Technology Holdings Inc. which rose 82.35% to 3.10, XORTX Therapeutics Inc. which was up 43.80% to settle at 1.74 and Imperial Petroleum Inc. which gained 37.25% to close at 2.10. The worst performers were Codex DNA Inc. which was down 34.13% to 6.06 in late trade, AdTheorent Holding Company Inc. which lost 26.06% to settle at 7.69, and XJ Luxventure Ltd which was down 23.01% to 3.38 at the close.

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Oil price - Crude Oil market, Brent Oil market

Crude prices declined in volatile trading today as investors assessed the potential for new supply in the tight markets amid prospects of a new Iran deal. U.S West Texas Intermediate futures fell 96 cents, or 0.84%, to $113.97 a barrel. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Wednesday the United States and its allies have made progress in Iran nuclear talks but issues remain.

A lifting of Iranian export restrictions would help alleviate the immense tightness prevalent in crude markets right now. Iran is already preparing for a ramp-up in exports, and the state refiner NIOC has reportedly started to reach out to former key customers in India and South Korea. Oil markets jumped more than 5% on Wednesday following reports that crude exports from Kazakhstan's Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal had completely halted following storm damage. Russia's deputy prime minister said oil supplies could be stopped for two months.

Elliott waves trading idea for Gold and Silver safe assets UPDATE

Precious and Base Metals - Gold price, Silver price, Palladium price

Gold rose yesterday as unruly inflation and the intensifying Ukraine crisis fed demand for the safe-haven metal, although a firmer dollar and high bond yields put a lid on gains. Spot gold rose 0.8% to $1,937.52 per ounce. U.S gold futures settled up 0.8% at$1,937.30.

You're seeing a little bit of safe-haven demand and a little perceived bargain hunting at lower price levels in the gold market. The yellow metal had scaled record highs earlier in March but retreated sharply from those levels in the run-up to last week's Federal Reserve meeting. Prices have since moved into a more steady range as the market digested a more hawkish outlook from Fed policymakers. 

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High inflation is in favor of precious metals and it is not going to go away anytime soon. Yields on the benchmark U.S. 10- year Treasury hit their highest in nearly three years, yet eased to 2.357%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding zero yield bullion. The dollar was also higher on the day, making gold expensive for holders of other currencies. 

Adding to gold's appeal, U.S. stock indexes fell on Wednesday as oil prices climbed over $121 per barrel. Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, hit their highest since March 2021 this week. What's phenomenal at the moment and a good indicator of a beginning of a gold bull market is ETF (exchange-traded fund) demand remains remarkably strong. Spot silver rose 1.2% to $25.05 per ounce, platinum fell 0.6% to $1,017.15, and palladium rose 1.4% to $2,518.30.

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Traditional Agricultures - Corn futures, Wheat futures,  Soybean futures

Soybean futures rose for a third consecutive session yesterday, hitting their highest in nearly a month on expectations that demand for U.S supplies will remain strong due to harvest shortfalls in South America. The crop woes in Argentina and Brazil also lent support to the corn market, while wheat eased as traders assessed the long-term implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Soybeans also were benefiting from strength in the cash market, where dealers along Midwest rivers were boosting their bids for the oilseed as they tried to find supplies to ship to exporters at the U.S Gulf. Traders were still waiting for signs U.S exporters were winning some of the wheat business that typically goes to Russia or Ukraine.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.