Inflation in Britain shot up faster than expected to hit a new 30-year high

• The dollar climbed in yesterday’s session while the euro weakened as oil prices shot higher
• Biden is due to arrive in Brussels later today on his first foreign trip since the war in Ukraine
• The yen has been weak against the dollar recently, slipping to a new six-year low of 121.40

Forex market

The dollar climbed yesterday while the euro weakened as oil prices shot higher again with U.S President Joe Biden poised to announce, alongside European leaders, new sanctions against Russia during his trip to Europe. 

Biden is due to arrive in Brussels later on Wednesday on his first foreign trip since the war in Ukraine began and will meet NATO and European leaders in an emergency summit at the Western military alliance's headquarters. Sources said the U.S package would include measures targeting Russian members of parliament. 

Economic Calendar

Prices for commodities such as oil and wheat have climbed as tensions in Ukraine have escalated, putting additional upward pressure on already high inflation due to supply chain bottlenecks. Rising inflation has led many central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, to take measures to rein in prices, such as by raising interest rates. 

The capital flow is going to be I don’t want to be in Europe, it is closer to Ukraine literally in the geographical sense, but also it is the fallout from the sanctions, there is a lot of money rotating back out of Europe and back towards the States. If we get another round of sanctions, then people, therefore, say the blowback on the West is going to fall on Europe disproportionately.

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Crude prices were up more than 5% yesterday, supported by disruption to Russian and Kazakh crude exports. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell raised the possibility of raising interest rates by more than 25 basis points at upcoming meetings, a more aggressive stance echoed by other policymakers, which has supported the greenback and helped boost the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note to more than 2.4%. On Wednesday, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester became the latest Fed policymakers to indicate a bigger hike was in the offing at the central bank's May meeting.

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Euro-EUR

The single currency traded lower as Eurozone consumer confidence fell by 9.9 points in March from the February number, figures released yesterday showed. The European Commission said a flash estimate showed euro zone consumer morale decreased to -18.7 this month from -8.8 in February. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a fall to -12.9. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1001 and a high of 1.1117 before closing the day around 1.1049 in the New York session.

Yen-JPY

The Japanese Yen ended yesterday’s session lower. Bank of Japan (BOJ) board member Goushi Kataoka said on Thursday a weak yen was positive for the economy, with the damage due to rising import costs likely very small. While Japan may see consumer inflation exceed 1.5% for a prolonged period due to technical factors. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 118.45 and a high of 119.38 before closing the day around 119.13 in the U.S session.

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British Pound-GBP

The British Pound held at a two-week high against the euro and softened against the dollar after British finance minister Rishi Sunak announced measures to ease the UK’s cost-of-living squeeze and inflation hit a 30-year high. Sunak cut taxes for workers and reduced duty on fuel against the backdrop of slowing economic growth and fast-rising inflation. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3108 and a high of 1.3195 before closing the day at 1.3177 in the New York session.

Canadian Dollar-CAD

The Canadian Dollar was little changed with the currency holding near a two-month high as recent dialing back of financial market volatility led to investors focusing more on the upswing in commodity prices. Canada today will outline plans to increase oil exports to help alleviate the tight global market following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2586 and a high of 1.2644 before closing the day at 1.2597 in the New York session.

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Australian Dollar-AUD

The Australian Dollar stood tall while the yen slumped further as higher energy prices continued to drive moves in foreign exchange markets yesterday. Against the Japanese currency, the Australian dollar edged up to hit its highest level since December 2015 and has gained 8% in March so far. Versus the dollar, it touched a four-and a- half month high. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7358 and a high of 0.7416 before closing the day at 0.7410 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.10%.

Sterling-Yen GBP/JPY

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.72%.

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Aussie-Yen AUD/JPY

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 76 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.97%.

Euro-Sterling EUR/GBP

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 53 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.60%.

Sterling-Swiss GBP/CHF

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.28%.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

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Gold prices rose yesterday as fighting in Ukraine boosted demand

US stock markets: U.S. stocks declined broadly while oil prices and Treasury yields pushed higher yesterday as investors refocused on risks from conflict in Ukraine and the U.S Federal Reserve's actions on inflation. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 201.94 points or 0.58%, the S&P 500 lost 1.94 points or 0.04% and the NASDAQ dropped 55.38 points or 0.4%. 

Global stock markets rallied last week in anticipation of an eventual peace deal on Ukraine. But on Monday, Ukraine defied a Russian ultimatum that its forces lay down arms in Mariupol, while the European Union considered a possible energy embargo against Russia. 

Economic Calendar

The market is digesting the impact of tighter financial conditions, higher oil prices, and continued geopolitical uncertainty against a backdrop of growth, at least in the U.S. The U.S central bank must move quickly to bring too-high inflation to heel, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said yesterday, adding that it could use bigger-than-usual interest rate hikes if needed to do so.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.58%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Chevron Corp, which rose 1.81% or 2.92 points to trade at 164.65 at the close. Meanwhile, Dow Inc. added 1.54% or 0.96 points to end at 63.35 and The Travelers Companies Inc. was up 1.26% or 2.27 points to 182.58 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Boeing Co, which fell 3.60% or 6.94 points to trade at 185.89 at the close. Home Depot Inc. declined 3.35% or 11.41 points to end at 329.33 and Salesforce.com Inc. was down 2.33% or 5.10 points to 213.70.

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NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index fell 0.40%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Neurosense Therapeutics Ltd which rose 299.36% to 6.23, Clarus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. which was up 58.44% to settle at 1.22 and Yumanity Therapeutics Inc. which gained 58.04% to close at 1.77. The worst performers were Vallon Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was down 68.95% to 2.31 in late trade, Allena Pharmaceuticals Inc. which lost 43.16% to settle at 0.28 and Imperial Petroleum Inc. which was down 36.71% to 1.50 at the close.

Oil price - Crude Oil market, Brent Oil market

Oil prices settled up more than 7% on Monday, with global benchmark Brent climbing above $115 a barrel, as European Union nations disagreed on whether to join the United States in a Russian oil embargo after an attack on Saudi oil facilities. U.S crude futures settled at $112.12 per barrel, up to $7.42 or 7.09%. 

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European Union governments will consider whether to impose an oil embargo on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine as they gather this week with U.S. President Joe Biden for a series of summits designed to harden the West's response to Moscow. The EU and allies have already imposed a panoply of measures against Russia, including freezing its central bank's assets. 

Ukraine defied a Russian demand that its forces lay down arms before dawn on Monday in Mariupol, where hundreds of thousands of civilians have been trapped in a city under siege. With little sign of the conflict easing, the focus returned to whether the market would be able to replace Russian barrels hit by sanctions.

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Precious and Base Metals - Gold price, Silver price, Palladium price

Gold prices rose yesterday as fighting in Ukraine boosted demand for safe-haven bullion, while investors kept a close tab on Moscow-Kyiv peace talks. Spot gold rose 0.5% to $1,931.16 per ounce. U.S gold futures for April settled mostly unchanged at $1,929.50. 

Another escalation around Ukraine will drive significant safe-haven flows to gold, even inflation hedge moves if we see sanctions that trigger another commodity surge. Russia and Ukraine were nearing agreement on "critical" issues, Turkey's foreign minister said on Sunday, but demand for riskier assets retreated and oil prices climbed as fighting continued. 

While rumors of a potential compromise over the weekend brought gold prices down from their highs, the next launching pad for gold would be the $1,900 area. Last week, gold shed more than 3% on hopes for progress in the talks and a U.S interest rate hike. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic said yesterday he was open to a more aggressive policy tightening while penciling in six rate hikes for 2022.

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The market implies a 50-50 chance of a half-point hike in May and an even greater chance by June. Even if the Fed's upper estimates of rate raises become reality, inflation will still be ahead, and real interest rates negative, maintaining a positive environment for gold in the medium term. Spot silver rose 0.8% to $25.15, platinum was up 1.7% at $1,038.98, while palladium rose 3.2% to $2,569.68. 

The Ukraine conflict coupled with COVID-related restrictions in semiconductor fabrication hubs in China could hurt automotive demand for metals such as palladium, used as an autocatalyst in vehicle exhausts to curb emissions. Spot silver rose 0.2% to $25.24 per ounce and platinum was flat at $1,036.56.

Traditional Agricultures - Corn futures, Wheat futures,  Soybean futures

Wheat and corn futures jumped yesterday, with traders saying that exports from the Black Sea region will continue to be disrupted this week due to the fighting in Ukraine. Soybean futures also rose sharply, following gains in the crude oil market that also stemmed from major ructions to energy shipments related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Traders also noted buying by investment funds after all three commodities notched losses last week.

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U.S Fed Chair opened the door for the central bank for a more aggressive monetary policy

• The policymaker said he sees six rate hikes this year and two for 2023
• Markets have been volatile over the past month as the situation in Ukraine has escalated
• Investors unloaded the Japanese Yen and sent it spearing below the psychological 120 level

Forex market

The dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies yesterday, in the wake of comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that opened the door for the central bank to take a more aggressive monetary policy path. The greenback had been fluctuating between slight gains and losses earlier in the day and weakened slightly after comments from Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic. 

The policymaker said he sees six rate hikes this year and two for 2023, a more dovish stance than most of his colleagues as he has concerns about the effects of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the U.S. economy. But the dollar gained ground after Powell said the central bank must move "expeditiously" to bring too-high inflation under control and will if needed, use bigger-than-usual interest rate hikes to do so. He keeps saying the same thing over and over, that we've got to get inflation down and whatever it takes that's what we're going to do.

Economic Calendar

The market unfortunately is hanging on to old norms, that they'll just do a quarter of a percentage point every time. The Fed is kind of rewriting that playbook - we may have to go every meeting, we may have to do something more than 25 basis points, and we might have to do rate hikes and quantitative tightening at the same time. 

Markets have been volatile over the past month as the situation in Ukraine has escalated, increasing the prices of commodities such as oil and putting upward pressure on already high inflation. The Fed raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points last week for the first time since 2018 as it attempts to combat rising prices while trying to avoid a policy error that could send the U.S. economy into recession. 

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Investors are now focused on the potential speed and size of future rate hikes. Ukraine defied a Russian demand that its forces lay down arms in the besieged port city of Mariupol before dawn yesterday. While many central banks around the globe have been hiking rates, with the Fed the latest to do so, the Bank of Japan on Friday maintained its massive stimulus program and held rates steady, while warning of increased risks from the Ukraine crisis to a delicate economic recovery. That disparity has served to weaken the yen, with the Japanese currency trading near six-year lows versus the dollar despite its safe-haven status.

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Euro-EUR

The single currency ended yesterday’s session lower. Russia's war in Ukraine will dent eurozone growth but the block is still set to expand, even if the conflict escalates, European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said today. He added that while high energy prices are pushing inflation to record highs. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1001 and a high of 1.1117 before closing the day around 1.1049 in the New York session.

Yen-JPY

The Japanese Yen fell against the U.S Dollar as investors unloaded yen and sent it spearing below the psychological 120 level as the Bank of Japan looks increasingly isolated in its dovish policy stance. The yen hit a six-year low, having lost more than 4% on the dollar this month as leaping U.S yields and a deteriorating trade balance suck cash. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 118.45 and a high of 119.38 before closing the day around 119.13 in the U.S session.

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British Pound-GBP

The British Pound recovered against the dollar yesterday ahead of key domestic drivers for the currency, including inflation data, a panel discussion from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and finance minister Rishi Sunak's Spring Statement. All are set to take place on Wednesday. Annual headline CPI is seen climbing to 5.9%, according to a Reuters poll. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3108 and a high of 1.3195 before closing the day at 1.3177 in the New York session.

Canadian Dollar-CAD

The Canadian Dollar strengthened to its highest level in nearly two months against its U.S counterpart as oil prices climbed and speculators raised bullish bets on the currency. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, jumped as European Union nations considered joining the United States in a Russian oil embargo and after a weekend attack on Saudi oil facilities. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2586 and a high of 1.2644 before closing the day at 1.2597 in the New York session.

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Australian Dollar-AUD

The Australian Dollar took a step back today as an uber-hawkish outlook for US interest rates hammered bond markets and sent local yields lurching to three-year peaks. Australian bonds moved in lock-step with a huge increase in US yields as the Federal Reserve flagged the risk of one or more outsized rate hikes of 50 basis points. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7358 and a high of 0.7416 before closing the day at 0.7410 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.10%.

Sterling-Yen GBP/JPY

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.72%.

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Aussie-Yen AUD/JPY

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 76 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.97%.

Euro-Sterling EUR/GBP

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 53 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.60%.

Sterling-Swiss GBP/CHF

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.28%.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

EU governments will consider whether to impose an oil embargo on Russia

US stock markets: Wall Street's three major indexes closed higher on Friday, with the biggest boost from recently battered technology stocks, after talks between U.S President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping over the Ukraine crisis ended without big surprises. 

Investors were also relieved by slowing gains in oil prices as they continued to digest the Federal Reserve's Wednesday interest rate increase and its aggressive plan for further hikes aimed at combating soaring inflation. U.S. President Joe Biden warned Chinese leader Xi Jinping during a call that there would be "consequences" if Beijing gave material support to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the White House said. Both sides stressed the need for a diplomatic solution to the crisis. 

Economic Calendar

While President Xi Jinping called on NATO nations to hold a dialogue with Moscow, he did not assign blame to Russia for the invasion. Wall Street's three main indexes boasted their biggest weekly percentage gains since early November 2020 with the S&P adding 6.2% while the Dow rose 5.5% and the NASDAQ jumping 8.2%.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.80%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Salesforce.com Inc., which rose 3.96% or 8.33 points to trade at 218.74 at the close. Meanwhile, Nike Inc. added 2.98% or 3.80 points to end at 131.21 and Visa Inc. Class A was up 2.65% or 5.65 points to 219.10 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Verizon Communications Inc., which fell 2.39% or 1.25 points to trade at 51.11 at the close. Johnson & Johnson declined 1.11% or 1.97 points to end at 174.83 and Dow Inc. was down 0.67% or 0.42 points to 62.42.

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NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index gained 2.05%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Connect Biopharma Holdings Ltd which rose 54.21% to 4.95, Rezolute Inc. which was up 52.42% to settle at 4.10 and Redbox Entertainment Inc. which gained 50.28% to close at 2.69. The worst performers were Bt Brands Inc. which was down 39.22% to 1.55 in late trade, Neptune Wellness Solutions Inc. which lost 31.63% to settle at 0.21 and Nymox Pharmaceutical Corp which was down 28.57% to 1.35 at the close.

Oil price - Crude Oil market, Brent Oil market

Oil prices jumped more than $3 today, with Brent above $111 a barrel, as European Union nations consider joining the United States in a Russian oil embargo, while a weekend attack on Saudi oil facilities caused jitters. U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $3.98, or 3.8%, to $108.68, extending a 1.7% jump last Friday. 

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Prices moved higher ahead of talks this week between European Union governments and U.S. President Joe Biden for a series of summits that aim to harden the West's response to Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. EU governments will consider whether to impose an oil embargo on Russia. Early on Monday, Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister, Iryna Vershchuk, said there was no chance the country's forces would surrender in the besieged eastern port city of Mariupol. 

With little sign of the conflict easing, the focus returned to whether the market would be able to replace Russian barrels hit by sanctions.

Precious and Base Metals - Gold price, Silver price, Palladium price

Gold prices rose today, lifted by demand for the safe-haven metal as the Ukraine crisis showed no signs of abatement, although the gains were capped by the U.S Federal Reserve's plan of aggressive measures to combat inflation. 

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,924.45 per ounce. U.S gold futures were down 0.3% at $1,924.00. A little bit of safe-haven flows is going into gold today because Ukraine officially rejected the deadline from Russia. Ukraine today rejected Russian calls to surrender the port city of Mariupol, where residents are besieged with little food, water, and power and fierce fighting shows little sign of easing. 

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Preventing further gains in the metal, two of the Fed's most hawkish policymakers said on Friday the central bank needs to take more aggressive steps to combat inflation. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he wants to raise rates to 1.75% to 2% this year, according to an essay published on the regional Fed bank's website. 

Higher interest rates tend to raise the opportunity cost of holding non-interest paying gold. Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, rose 0.8% to 1,082.44 tonnes on Friday — a high since March 2021. Palladium, used by automakers in catalytic converters to curb emissions, gained 2.8% at $2,560.71 per ounce. It had hit a record high of $3,440.76 on March 7, driven by fears of supply disruptions from top producer Russia. 

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The auto-catalyst metal is responding better to the events unfolding in Ukraine because with Ukraine officially saying no to Russia, it puts peace talks on the back foot, and of course that brings further concerns over supplying constraints moving forward. Spot silver was flat at $24.96 per ounce, platinum rose 0.4% to $1,025.83.

Traditional Agricultures - Corn futures, Wheat futures,  Soybean futures

Wheat rose today in the Asian trading session for the second session in three, as the Russia-Ukraine war and dry weather in parts of the U.S grain belt raised concerns over global supplies. Corn and soybeans climbed about 1% each. Wheat prices have declined since hitting their peak earlier in March, which is generating some buying interest. But the war is not anywhere close to being getting over and supplies from the Black Sea region remain an issue.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.