Gold prices rose yesterday as fighting in Ukraine boosted demand

US stock markets: U.S. stocks declined broadly while oil prices and Treasury yields pushed higher yesterday as investors refocused on risks from conflict in Ukraine and the U.S Federal Reserve's actions on inflation. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 201.94 points or 0.58%, the S&P 500 lost 1.94 points or 0.04% and the NASDAQ dropped 55.38 points or 0.4%. 

Global stock markets rallied last week in anticipation of an eventual peace deal on Ukraine. But on Monday, Ukraine defied a Russian ultimatum that its forces lay down arms in Mariupol, while the European Union considered a possible energy embargo against Russia. 

Economic Calendar

The market is digesting the impact of tighter financial conditions, higher oil prices, and continued geopolitical uncertainty against a backdrop of growth, at least in the U.S. The U.S central bank must move quickly to bring too-high inflation to heel, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said yesterday, adding that it could use bigger-than-usual interest rate hikes if needed to do so.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.58%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Chevron Corp, which rose 1.81% or 2.92 points to trade at 164.65 at the close. Meanwhile, Dow Inc. added 1.54% or 0.96 points to end at 63.35 and The Travelers Companies Inc. was up 1.26% or 2.27 points to 182.58 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Boeing Co, which fell 3.60% or 6.94 points to trade at 185.89 at the close. Home Depot Inc. declined 3.35% or 11.41 points to end at 329.33 and Salesforce.com Inc. was down 2.33% or 5.10 points to 213.70.

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NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index fell 0.40%. The top performers on the NASDAQ were Neurosense Therapeutics Ltd which rose 299.36% to 6.23, Clarus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. which was up 58.44% to settle at 1.22 and Yumanity Therapeutics Inc. which gained 58.04% to close at 1.77. The worst performers were Vallon Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was down 68.95% to 2.31 in late trade, Allena Pharmaceuticals Inc. which lost 43.16% to settle at 0.28 and Imperial Petroleum Inc. which was down 36.71% to 1.50 at the close.

Oil price - Crude Oil market, Brent Oil market

Oil prices settled up more than 7% on Monday, with global benchmark Brent climbing above $115 a barrel, as European Union nations disagreed on whether to join the United States in a Russian oil embargo after an attack on Saudi oil facilities. U.S crude futures settled at $112.12 per barrel, up to $7.42 or 7.09%. 

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European Union governments will consider whether to impose an oil embargo on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine as they gather this week with U.S. President Joe Biden for a series of summits designed to harden the West's response to Moscow. The EU and allies have already imposed a panoply of measures against Russia, including freezing its central bank's assets. 

Ukraine defied a Russian demand that its forces lay down arms before dawn on Monday in Mariupol, where hundreds of thousands of civilians have been trapped in a city under siege. With little sign of the conflict easing, the focus returned to whether the market would be able to replace Russian barrels hit by sanctions.

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Precious and Base Metals - Gold price, Silver price, Palladium price

Gold prices rose yesterday as fighting in Ukraine boosted demand for safe-haven bullion, while investors kept a close tab on Moscow-Kyiv peace talks. Spot gold rose 0.5% to $1,931.16 per ounce. U.S gold futures for April settled mostly unchanged at $1,929.50. 

Another escalation around Ukraine will drive significant safe-haven flows to gold, even inflation hedge moves if we see sanctions that trigger another commodity surge. Russia and Ukraine were nearing agreement on "critical" issues, Turkey's foreign minister said on Sunday, but demand for riskier assets retreated and oil prices climbed as fighting continued. 

While rumors of a potential compromise over the weekend brought gold prices down from their highs, the next launching pad for gold would be the $1,900 area. Last week, gold shed more than 3% on hopes for progress in the talks and a U.S interest rate hike. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic said yesterday he was open to a more aggressive policy tightening while penciling in six rate hikes for 2022.

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The market implies a 50-50 chance of a half-point hike in May and an even greater chance by June. Even if the Fed's upper estimates of rate raises become reality, inflation will still be ahead, and real interest rates negative, maintaining a positive environment for gold in the medium term. Spot silver rose 0.8% to $25.15, platinum was up 1.7% at $1,038.98, while palladium rose 3.2% to $2,569.68. 

The Ukraine conflict coupled with COVID-related restrictions in semiconductor fabrication hubs in China could hurt automotive demand for metals such as palladium, used as an autocatalyst in vehicle exhausts to curb emissions. Spot silver rose 0.2% to $25.24 per ounce and platinum was flat at $1,036.56.

Traditional Agricultures - Corn futures, Wheat futures,  Soybean futures

Wheat and corn futures jumped yesterday, with traders saying that exports from the Black Sea region will continue to be disrupted this week due to the fighting in Ukraine. Soybean futures also rose sharply, following gains in the crude oil market that also stemmed from major ructions to energy shipments related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Traders also noted buying by investment funds after all three commodities notched losses last week.

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U.S Fed Chair opened the door for the central bank for a more aggressive monetary policy

• The policymaker said he sees six rate hikes this year and two for 2023
• Markets have been volatile over the past month as the situation in Ukraine has escalated
• Investors unloaded the Japanese Yen and sent it spearing below the psychological 120 level

Forex market

The dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies yesterday, in the wake of comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that opened the door for the central bank to take a more aggressive monetary policy path. The greenback had been fluctuating between slight gains and losses earlier in the day and weakened slightly after comments from Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic. 

The policymaker said he sees six rate hikes this year and two for 2023, a more dovish stance than most of his colleagues as he has concerns about the effects of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the U.S. economy. But the dollar gained ground after Powell said the central bank must move "expeditiously" to bring too-high inflation under control and will if needed, use bigger-than-usual interest rate hikes to do so. He keeps saying the same thing over and over, that we've got to get inflation down and whatever it takes that's what we're going to do.

Economic Calendar

The market unfortunately is hanging on to old norms, that they'll just do a quarter of a percentage point every time. The Fed is kind of rewriting that playbook - we may have to go every meeting, we may have to do something more than 25 basis points, and we might have to do rate hikes and quantitative tightening at the same time. 

Markets have been volatile over the past month as the situation in Ukraine has escalated, increasing the prices of commodities such as oil and putting upward pressure on already high inflation. The Fed raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points last week for the first time since 2018 as it attempts to combat rising prices while trying to avoid a policy error that could send the U.S. economy into recession. 

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Investors are now focused on the potential speed and size of future rate hikes. Ukraine defied a Russian demand that its forces lay down arms in the besieged port city of Mariupol before dawn yesterday. While many central banks around the globe have been hiking rates, with the Fed the latest to do so, the Bank of Japan on Friday maintained its massive stimulus program and held rates steady, while warning of increased risks from the Ukraine crisis to a delicate economic recovery. That disparity has served to weaken the yen, with the Japanese currency trading near six-year lows versus the dollar despite its safe-haven status.

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Euro-EUR

The single currency ended yesterday’s session lower. Russia's war in Ukraine will dent eurozone growth but the block is still set to expand, even if the conflict escalates, European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said today. He added that while high energy prices are pushing inflation to record highs. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1001 and a high of 1.1117 before closing the day around 1.1049 in the New York session.

Yen-JPY

The Japanese Yen fell against the U.S Dollar as investors unloaded yen and sent it spearing below the psychological 120 level as the Bank of Japan looks increasingly isolated in its dovish policy stance. The yen hit a six-year low, having lost more than 4% on the dollar this month as leaping U.S yields and a deteriorating trade balance suck cash. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 118.45 and a high of 119.38 before closing the day around 119.13 in the U.S session.

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British Pound-GBP

The British Pound recovered against the dollar yesterday ahead of key domestic drivers for the currency, including inflation data, a panel discussion from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and finance minister Rishi Sunak's Spring Statement. All are set to take place on Wednesday. Annual headline CPI is seen climbing to 5.9%, according to a Reuters poll. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3108 and a high of 1.3195 before closing the day at 1.3177 in the New York session.

Canadian Dollar-CAD

The Canadian Dollar strengthened to its highest level in nearly two months against its U.S counterpart as oil prices climbed and speculators raised bullish bets on the currency. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, jumped as European Union nations considered joining the United States in a Russian oil embargo and after a weekend attack on Saudi oil facilities. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2586 and a high of 1.2644 before closing the day at 1.2597 in the New York session.

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Australian Dollar-AUD

The Australian Dollar took a step back today as an uber-hawkish outlook for US interest rates hammered bond markets and sent local yields lurching to three-year peaks. Australian bonds moved in lock-step with a huge increase in US yields as the Federal Reserve flagged the risk of one or more outsized rate hikes of 50 basis points. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7358 and a high of 0.7416 before closing the day at 0.7410 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.10%.

Sterling-Yen GBP/JPY

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.72%.

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Aussie-Yen AUD/JPY

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 76 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.97%.

Euro-Sterling EUR/GBP

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 53 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.60%.

Sterling-Swiss GBP/CHF

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.28%.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

EU governments will consider whether to impose an oil embargo on Russia

US stock markets: Wall Street's three major indexes closed higher on Friday, with the biggest boost from recently battered technology stocks, after talks between U.S President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping over the Ukraine crisis ended without big surprises. 

Investors were also relieved by slowing gains in oil prices as they continued to digest the Federal Reserve's Wednesday interest rate increase and its aggressive plan for further hikes aimed at combating soaring inflation. U.S. President Joe Biden warned Chinese leader Xi Jinping during a call that there would be "consequences" if Beijing gave material support to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the White House said. Both sides stressed the need for a diplomatic solution to the crisis. 

Economic Calendar

While President Xi Jinping called on NATO nations to hold a dialogue with Moscow, he did not assign blame to Russia for the invasion. Wall Street's three main indexes boasted their biggest weekly percentage gains since early November 2020 with the S&P adding 6.2% while the Dow rose 5.5% and the NASDAQ jumping 8.2%.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.80%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Salesforce.com Inc., which rose 3.96% or 8.33 points to trade at 218.74 at the close. Meanwhile, Nike Inc. added 2.98% or 3.80 points to end at 131.21 and Visa Inc. Class A was up 2.65% or 5.65 points to 219.10 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Verizon Communications Inc., which fell 2.39% or 1.25 points to trade at 51.11 at the close. Johnson & Johnson declined 1.11% or 1.97 points to end at 174.83 and Dow Inc. was down 0.67% or 0.42 points to 62.42.

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NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index gained 2.05%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Connect Biopharma Holdings Ltd which rose 54.21% to 4.95, Rezolute Inc. which was up 52.42% to settle at 4.10 and Redbox Entertainment Inc. which gained 50.28% to close at 2.69. The worst performers were Bt Brands Inc. which was down 39.22% to 1.55 in late trade, Neptune Wellness Solutions Inc. which lost 31.63% to settle at 0.21 and Nymox Pharmaceutical Corp which was down 28.57% to 1.35 at the close.

Oil price - Crude Oil market, Brent Oil market

Oil prices jumped more than $3 today, with Brent above $111 a barrel, as European Union nations consider joining the United States in a Russian oil embargo, while a weekend attack on Saudi oil facilities caused jitters. U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $3.98, or 3.8%, to $108.68, extending a 1.7% jump last Friday. 

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Prices moved higher ahead of talks this week between European Union governments and U.S. President Joe Biden for a series of summits that aim to harden the West's response to Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. EU governments will consider whether to impose an oil embargo on Russia. Early on Monday, Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister, Iryna Vershchuk, said there was no chance the country's forces would surrender in the besieged eastern port city of Mariupol. 

With little sign of the conflict easing, the focus returned to whether the market would be able to replace Russian barrels hit by sanctions.

Precious and Base Metals - Gold price, Silver price, Palladium price

Gold prices rose today, lifted by demand for the safe-haven metal as the Ukraine crisis showed no signs of abatement, although the gains were capped by the U.S Federal Reserve's plan of aggressive measures to combat inflation. 

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,924.45 per ounce. U.S gold futures were down 0.3% at $1,924.00. A little bit of safe-haven flows is going into gold today because Ukraine officially rejected the deadline from Russia. Ukraine today rejected Russian calls to surrender the port city of Mariupol, where residents are besieged with little food, water, and power and fierce fighting shows little sign of easing. 

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Preventing further gains in the metal, two of the Fed's most hawkish policymakers said on Friday the central bank needs to take more aggressive steps to combat inflation. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he wants to raise rates to 1.75% to 2% this year, according to an essay published on the regional Fed bank's website. 

Higher interest rates tend to raise the opportunity cost of holding non-interest paying gold. Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, rose 0.8% to 1,082.44 tonnes on Friday — a high since March 2021. Palladium, used by automakers in catalytic converters to curb emissions, gained 2.8% at $2,560.71 per ounce. It had hit a record high of $3,440.76 on March 7, driven by fears of supply disruptions from top producer Russia. 

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The auto-catalyst metal is responding better to the events unfolding in Ukraine because with Ukraine officially saying no to Russia, it puts peace talks on the back foot, and of course that brings further concerns over supplying constraints moving forward. Spot silver was flat at $24.96 per ounce, platinum rose 0.4% to $1,025.83.

Traditional Agricultures - Corn futures, Wheat futures,  Soybean futures

Wheat rose today in the Asian trading session for the second session in three, as the Russia-Ukraine war and dry weather in parts of the U.S grain belt raised concerns over global supplies. Corn and soybeans climbed about 1% each. Wheat prices have declined since hitting their peak earlier in March, which is generating some buying interest. But the war is not anywhere close to being getting over and supplies from the Black Sea region remain an issue.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The euro zone's trade balance was in deficit for the third consecutive month

• The yen extended its decline on Monday and the euro and sterling came under pressure
• The British pound rose against the euro but was flat against the U.S. dollar on Friday
• Canadian retail sales bounced back beating expectations as shoppers ventured out to car dealerships

Forex market

The yen extended its decline today and the euro and sterling came under pressure, with investors awaiting Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's remarks later in the day and other central bank policymakers this week for monetary policy clues. 

The dollar climbed slightly on the yen to as much as 119.3 yen challenging the six-year peak of 119.39 touched on Friday. The dollar finished last week 1.6% higher versus the Japanese currency. Analysts said they thought moves in the pair could slow this week, but they predict the dollar will climb further on the yen in the coming months as the gap between the U.S. and Japanese interest rates widens.

Economic Calendar

Japan's inflation dynamic is very different from that experienced in other major economies we monitor, As a result, an exit from the ultra-easy monetary policy by the Bank of Japan remains a long way off in our view. In contrast, the U.S. central bank raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points last week for the first time since the pandemic. 

Traders' focus is now firmly on the speed and size of future rate hikes and the height of their eventual peak, as policymakers try to curb soaring inflation. A series of speeches by Fed policymakers this week, kicked off by Powell today, could provide some clues. At least one Fed speaker is due each day this week and Powell himself making another appearance on Wednesday. Markets will be watching to see the attitude of more dovish Fed policymakers, if they should sound hawkish it would reinforce expectations of more aggressive rate rises early in the Fed's path to higher rates. 

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Markets anticipate further rate increases at the Fed's subsequent meetings, with pricing indicating nearly a 90% chance of at least 75 basis points of increases across the Fed's May and June meetings. Such high expectations helped the dollar climb steadily in the early part of this year, but with several Fed increases already priced in, it could struggle to gain further traction. 

Given already-hawkish market expectations of Fed tightening, it is hard to foresee USD strength persisting beyond the near term. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six peers, was a whisker firmer at 98.335. The euro was at $1.1038, 0.17% lower, and sterling was at $1.3156 off 0.16% with the future direction of both dependent on the war in Ukraine, which has hurt expectations of European economic growth. In the short term, speeches this week by several policymakers at the European Central Bank, including president Christine Lagarde, could also play a role.

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Euro-EUR

The single currency traded lower as the euro zone's trade balance was in deficit for the third consecutive month in January as surging energy prices led to a sharp increase in the value of imports, even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine prompted further price spikes. Germany's trade surplus fell by 78% from January 2021, France's deficit deepened. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1001 and a high of 1.1117 before closing the day around 1.1049 in the New York session.

Yen-JPY

The Japanese Yen extended its decline today and the euro and sterling came under pressure, with investors awaiting Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's remarks later in the day and other central bank policymakers this week for monetary policy clues. The dollar finished last week 1.6% higher versus the Japanese currency. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 118.45 and a high of 119.38 before closing the day around 119.13 in the U.S session.

British Pound-GBP

The British Pound rose against the euro but was flat against the U.S. dollar on Friday, a day after the Bank of England increased its interest rate for the third consecutive meeting but softened its language over future tightening plans. Sterling was little changed against the dollar at $1.3147 but was still on track for its first positive week in four. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3108 and a high of 1.3195 before closing the day at 1.3177 in the New York session.

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Canadian Dollar-CAD

The Canadian Dollar gained as retail sales bounced back in January, beating expectations, as shoppers ventured out to car dealerships and home improvement shops, official data showed Friday, though February retail sales likely fell. Retail sales increased 3.2% to C$58.94 billion ($46.7 billion) in January, led by higher sales of motor vehicles and parts. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2586 and a high of 1.2644 before closing the day at 1.2597 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar-AUD

The Australian Dollar has surged higher on the back of positive risk sentiment to start the week. Commodity markets continue to recover from the rout seen at the start of last week. The underlying fundamentals remain strong for the Aussie, although the RBA are not likely to be making a move on rates anytime soon. The domestic jobs data last week was a solid beat. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7358 and a high of 0.7416 before closing the day at 0.7410 in the New York session.

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​Euro-Yen EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.10%.

Sterling-Yen GBP/JPY

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.72%.

Aussie-Yen AUD/JPY

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 76 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.97%.

Euro-Sterling EUR/GBP

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 53 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.60%.

Sterling-Swiss GBP/CHF

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.28%.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris 21st – 25th March

Boris Schlossberg is back once again to give his take on the Trading Week Ahead this week. As expected, The Fed came out last week and approved a quarter percentage point interest rate rise,  its first since December 2018 and possibly one of many more to come as the U.S. faces up to rampant inflation. With that big decision now priced into the markets, all eyes will be on whether stocks will be able to sustain last week's fresh gains into a second week. 

There are still many headlines to be written and with the Ukrainian conflict entering its second month, there may be many more twists and turns. In today's Trade Zone Trading Week Ahead, we look ahead at potential moves in equities, oil, gold, Bitcoin and also discuss why forex might now be an interesting play.

When: Mar 23, 2022 1:00 PM - 1:30 PM EET 

What: Find out what is hot in indices, forex, crypto, gold, and oil

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This live session is a unique opportunity to plan your next trade in real-time, as Boris and Kathy look ahead at the potential moves taking shape as the weekend approaches. Find out what is hot in indices, forex, crypto, gold and oil, as they discuss the financial assets they are watching, as well as the key levels to look out for when placing your stops.

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Elliott Wave trade idea for S&P500 and Dow Jones UPDATE

Hello traders and investors. I am Radi Valov, a professional trader and today I will share with you you a quick update of my Elliott Wave analysis of US indices. Those of you who have read my previous Elliott Wave analysis know that since the evening of February 24 I have released an update for an important bottom in S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average.

09.03.2020: Elliot Waves trading idea for S&P500 and Dow Jones UPDATE

25.02.2022: Elliot Waves trading idea for SP500 DowJones and Nasdaq 

15.02.2022: Elliot waves trading idea for SP500 and the Dow Jones 

04.02.2022: Elliott waves signal for S&P500  

31.01.2022: Elliott waves signals for SP500 and Dow Jones

S&P500-Daily Chart

Despite the negative events in the recent weeks and even more negative sentiment in the market, last week of all US indices only Nasdaq made a new bottom. This divergence is usually observed towards the end of movements and is a great indicator.

S&P500-H4 Chart

After the bottom on February 24, I consider the rise in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones as the leading diagonal for wave 1 (with red in the graph) and the deep retest of the bottom in both indices as wave 2. I must note that market sentiment during wave 2 was more negative than when it reached the bottom, which is a great confirmation of the bullish scenario and a very common phenomenon observed in the second waves.

We are currently developing at the beginning of wave 3 and I expect the upward movement to continue this week without significant adjustment to the area around 3550-3580 for S&P 500 and 35500-35800 for the Dow Jones.

In the medium term, according to my preferential Elliott Wave analysis, the S&P 500 / Dow Jones industrial average will move in the upward price channel on a daily chart and in the second half of the year, we will have new historical highs. The potential target for wave 5 is the area around 4970-5200 for S&P 500 and 37700-39000 for  Dow Jones.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.