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Thursday 17 March 2022

Canada's annual inflation rate accelerated in February to hit a fresh 30-year high

  •  The dollar fell on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve moved to a hawkish monetary policy
  • The yen was pinned to a six-year low on the dollar today in the Asian session
  • The U.S Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2018

Forex market

The dollar fell in yesterday’s trading session after the U.S Federal Reserve moved to a hawkish monetary policy but without delivering a tougher surprise that might have added to its weeks-long momentum. 

The dollar index, which had gained 3% since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war on Feb. 24 and 10% since May, fell as much as 0.6% on Wednesday as traders parsed Fed statements following a two-day meeting. There were no additional hawkish surprises. 

The dollar lost value to the euro and the British pound, both of which had been up earlier in the day in the hope for a compromise in Russia and Ukraine peace talks. The euro and pound both gained 0.7%, with the euro trading at $1.1032. The Fed raised interest rates by the expected quarter of a percentage point and projected its policy rate would reach a range of 1.75% to 2% by the end of this year and 2.8% next year. 

Economic Calendar

The decline in the dollar index was surprising and could reflect disappointment that the Fed rhetoric was not more hawkish. The Fed did project the equivalent of quarter-percentage-point rate increases at each of its six remaining policy meetings this year but that was in line with market expectations for rates. Yields on 10-year U.S Treasuries reached 2.2% and two-year yields rose to 1%, flattening the yield curve. 

The Bank of England meets later in today’s session and markets expect it to raise rates by another quarter-point. The Bank of Japan is expected on Friday to leave ultra-loose policy settings in place. The dollar rose 0.4% on the Japanese yen and during the day touched 119.13 yen, the highest in more than five years. The commodity-sensitive Australian dollar added 1.3% to $0.7288.

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Euro-EUR

The single currency gained as the dollar fell after the U.S Federal Reserve moved to a hawkish monetary policy but without delivering a tougher surprise that might have added to its weeks-long momentum. The dollar index, which had gained 3% since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war on Feb. 24 and 10% since May, fell as much as 0.6% yesterday. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.0884 and a high of 1.0665 before closing the day around 1.0934 in the New York session.

Yen-JPY

The Japanese Yen was pinned to a six-year low on the dollar today, as a U.S rate hike and hawkish outlook underscored just how far the BoJ is likely to lag worldwide policy tightening, while stellar jobs data lifted the Australian dollar. Increasing the target federal funds rate by a quarter-percentage point, the U.S Fed raised rates for the first time since 2018. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 114.63 and a high of 115.53 before closing the day around 114.83 in the U.S session.

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British Pound-GBP 

The British Pound edged higher against the U.S dollar yesterday supported by optimism on negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, though a Bank of England rate decision capped gains. New talk of compromise from both Moscow and Kyiv on status for Ukraine outside of NATO lifted hope for a potential breakthrough after three weeks of the war. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3200 and a high of 1.3353 before closing the day at 1.3238 in the New York session.

Canadian Dollar-CAD 

The Canadian Dollar traded higher as Canada's annual inflation rate accelerated in February to hit a fresh 30-year high, with broad price gains hitting consumers on all fronts, data showed yesterday, bolstering the case for the Bank of Canada to move forcefully on rates. At 5.7%, the gain beat analysts' estimates of a rise of 5.5% and is the highest since August 1991. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2667 and a high of 1.2789 before closing the day at 1.2735 in the New York session.

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Australian Dollar-AUD

The Australian Dollar gained as Australian employment surged in February as the economy recovered surprisingly quickly from an Omicron outbreak, driving unemployment down to lows not seen since 2008 and piling on the pressure for an early rise in interest rates. Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics today showed employment jumped by 77,400 in February from a month earlier. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7138 and a high of 0.7235 before closing the day at 0.7231 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen EUR/JPY 

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 1.70%.

Sterling-Yen GBP/JPY

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 1.35%.

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Aussie-Yen AUD/JPY

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.06%.

Euro-Sterling EUR/GBP

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.35%.

Sterling-Swiss GBP/CHF

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.86%.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Wednesday 16 March 2022

A strong U.S dollar is a key element exerting pressure on oil prices

US stock markets: The three main Wall Street stock indexes rallied yesterday, a day before an expected interest rate hike by the U.S Federal Reserve, while oil prices dropped 7% in hopes of an end to the conflict in Ukraine. 

Investors are expecting the U.S central bank to raise interest rates for the first time in three years by at least 25 basis points amid surging prices. Traders will also be closely watching the Fed for details on how it plans to end its bond-buying program. 

Ahead of the Fed's meeting on Wednesday, the benchmark 10-year note yields eased from more than two-year highs and were last at 2.1544%, after earlier rising to 2.169%, the highest since June 2019. I think the big event this week is going to be Fed discussing what they're going to do with the portfolio and how fast they're going to move. 

Economic Calendar

The expectation in the short term of course is going to be the raising of the rates by a quarter of a percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.82%, the S&P 500 gained 2.14% and the Nasdaq Composite added 2.92%.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.82%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Walt Disney Company, which rose 4.01% or 5.17 points to trade at 134.20 at the close. Meanwhile, Microsoft Corporation added 3.87% or 10.71 points to end at 287.15 and Procter & Gamble Company was up 3.64% or 5.28 points to 150.33 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Chevron Corp, which fell 5.00% or 8.34 points to trade at 158.38 at the close. Dow Inc. declined 2.37% or 1.43 points to end at 58.85 and Caterpillar Inc. was up 0.44% or 0.95 points to 216.39.

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NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index gained 2.92%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Sonim Technologies Inc. which rose 103.33% to 1.22, Incannex Healthcare Ltd ADR which was up 48.47% to settle at 34.00 and Jaguar Health Inc. which gained 44.53% to close at 0.55. The worst performers were Evolv Technologies Holdings Inc. which was down 43.14% to 1.70 in late trade, Cepton Inc. which lost 28.79% to settle at 4.28 and Better Therapeutics Inc. which was down 22.96% to 3.12 at the close.

Oil price - Crude Oil market, Brent Oil market

Oil prices rose over $1, bouncing back after earlier declines, as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues to stoke volatile trading with ceasefire talks the latest market trigger. U.S crude rose 45 cents, or 0.5%, at $96.89 a barrel. 

Ukrainian President said in a video address released early today that the positions of Ukraine and Russia at peace talks were sounding more realistic, but more time was needed. Traders are awaiting more clues from ceasefire talks after a two-day selloff in the oil markets, but the crude prices may continue being under pressure as high inflation will eventually drag on economic growth and weaken demands.

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A strong U.S dollar is a key element exerting pressure on oil prices and investors expect the U.S Fed to adopt a more hawkish monetary policy to curb flaring inflation. Analysts expect the Fed to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point at the end of its two-day policy meeting today.

Precious and Base Metals - Gold price, Silver price, Palladium price Precious and Base Metals

Gold extended its slide yesterday as ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine reduced demand for safe-haven assets, while bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve may raise interest rates for the first time in three years added to pressure on bullion. Spot gold was down 1.3% at $1,926 per ounce, after earlier touching its lowest since March 2 at $1,920.36. 

U.S gold futures fell 1.7% to $1,927.80. Some faint hopes that talks between Ukraine and Russia may somehow lead to a de-escalation that has affected safe-haven demand for gold. While gold is seeing a bit of a lull, the Ukraine situation is still unfolding, with market volatility and uncertainty likely to remain quite high. 

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European stocks fell more than 2% as concerns about surging coronavirus cases in China added to nerves ahead of the Fed policy meeting. The Fed is expected to raise borrowing costs by a quarter of a percentage point at the end of its two-day meeting today. The impending announcement has kept U.S. 10-year treasury yields elevated and put pressure on gold since rising U.S. interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. 

The first-rate hike move from the U.S. quite often signals a low point in gold, so we’ll see what kind of signal they send tomorrow, and how hawkish their statement is, which will probably determine the short-term outlook from here. Meanwhile, spot palladium was up 1.1% at $2,412.55 per ounce, after its weakest session in two years on Monday on easing supply fears. 

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Palladium is a notoriously low-liquidity market, Hansen said, and with the war premium being taken out of commodity markets, palladium has not been shielded. Spot silver shed 1.6% to $24.62 per ounce, while platinum slipped 1.6% to $1,013.58.

Traditional Agricultures - Corn futures, Wheat futures,  Soybean futures

Wheat futures gained yesterday, supported as export curbs by Russia fuelled concerns about global supply, while traders see the recent decline as an opportunity for bargain buying. Soybeans fell in reaction to investor worries that renewed coronavirus outbreaks in China could curb demand, while corn traded both sides of even as trade awaited talks between Moscow and Kyiv that could progress towards a ceasefire. Corn and soybeans were pressured by outside markets with crude oil, falling steeply.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

China posted a steep jump in daily COVID-19 infections doubling

US stock markets: Major U.S stock indexes closed mostly lower in yesterday’s session, led by a more than 2% drop in NASDAQ, as investors sold tech and big growth names ahead of this week's Federal Reserve meeting and an expected hike in interest rates. 

The Dow ended flat, with financial and healthcare shares giving the index some support. Developments in the Ukraine-Russia conflict added to investor caution as Russian and Ukrainian delegations held the fourth round of talks yesterday, but no progress was announced, while Russian forces allowed the first convoy of cars to escape Ukraine's besieged port of Mariupol. 

Economic Calendar

Apple Inc. shares fell 2.7% and weighed the most on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ after its supplier Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd, known as Foxconn, suspended operations in China's Shenzhen amid rising COVID-19 cases. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in three years Wednesday in an effort to combat rising inflation.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended almost unchanged. The biggest gainers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were American Express Company, which rose 2.91% or 4.89 points to trade at 172.79 at the close. The Travelers Companies Inc. added 1.99% or 3.45 points to end at 177.18 and Coca-Cola Co was up 1.84% or 1.06 points to 58.54 in late trade. The biggest losers included Nike Inc., which lost 4.13% or 5.06 points to trade at 117.57 in late trade. Intel Corporation declined 3.12% or 1.43 points to end at 44.40 and Apple Inc. shed 2.66% or 4.11 points to 150.62.

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NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index declined 2.04%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Incannex Healthcare Ltd ADR which rose 61.72% to 22.90, Red Cat Holdings Inc. which was up 48.37% to settle at 2.73 and Q And K International Group Ltd which gained 37.56% to close at 1.69. The worst performers were Nektar Therapeutics which was down 60.87% to 4.16 in late trade, Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Ltd which lost 47.86% to settle at 2.56 and Electric Last Mile Solutions Inc. which was down 47.71% to 0.99 at the close.

Oil price - Crude Oil market, Brent Oil market

Oil prices extended losses, sliding to a two-week low as ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine eased fears of further supply disruptions, and surging COVID-19 cases in China fueled concerns about slower demand. 

U.S crude fell below the $100 level for the first time since March 1, dropping $5.49 or 5.3%. It fell to as low as $96.70 earlier in the session. Expectations of positive developments in the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks bolstered hopes to ease tightness in the global crude market. 

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Fresh lockdowns to curb the COVID-19 pandemic in China also raised concerns over slower demand. China posted a steep jump in daily COVID-19 infections on Tuesday, with new cases more than doubling from a day earlier to hit a two-year high, raising concerns about the rising economic costs of the country's tough containment measures. 

Further talks between Ukrainian and Russian negotiators to ease the crisis were expected after discussions via video ended with no new progress announced.

Precious and Base Metals - Gold price, Silver price, Palladium price

Gold prices fell today to their lowest in more than a week, as U.S. Treasury yields surged ahead of an expected rate hike from the Federal Reserve, and as hopes for progress in Russia-Ukraine talks further dampened the metal's safe-haven appeal. Spot gold was down 0.4% at $1,942.96 per ounce, after touching its lowest since March 4 at $1,940 earlier in the session. U.S gold futures fell 0.5% to $1,951.20. 

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U.S. Treasury yields jumped to two-and-a-half-year highs on Monday, ahead of what is expected to be the Fed's first rate hike in three years on Wednesday to try to tame soaring inflation that shows no signs of slowing. 

Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Russian and Ukrainian delegations held the fourth round of talks on Monday - by video link rather than in person - but no new progress was announced. Discussions were due to resume on Tuesday. 

Palladium, used by automakers in catalytic converters to curb emissions, fell 1% to $2,363.06 per ounce, after declining more than 15% in the previous session on easing supply fears. Russian mining giant Nornickel's biggest shareholder told Russian RBC TV on Saturday that the group had managed to secure alternative routes for its palladium deliveries even as it faced logistical constraints. 

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A market authority said last week that Russian refiners can continue to sell platinum and palladium in London, the world's biggest precious metals trading center. The auto-catalyst metal hit a record high of $3,440.76 last week, driven by fears of supply disruptions from top producer Russia. Spot silver shed 0.4% to $24.92 per ounce, while platinum was down 0.1% to $1,029.16.

Traditional Agricultures - Corn futures, Wheat futures,  Soybean futures

Corn fell pressured by uncertainty in the Black Sea region as talks of a ceasefire in Ukraine could open up the region to exports, though progress remains uncertain. Wheat eased earlier but returned to near even on news that Russia is suspending exports to protect domestic food supplies as tariffs damage its economy. Soybeans were initially supported by Argentina’s decision to halt exports registration of soy oil which could increase oilseed demand in other countries to produce alternative supplies.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Tuesday 15 March 2022

The fundamentals of the euro area economy are strong EUR/USD

  • The yen remained under pressure today in the Asian trading session and the euro edged higher
  • The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to raise rates for the first time since the pandemic
  • Markets anticipate a 25 basis point rise at this meeting, according to the CME's Fed watch tool
  • Russian and Ukrainian delegations held the fourth round of talks but no new progress was announced

The yen remained under pressure on Tuesday and the euro edged higher as talks between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators continued, but moves were more muted than in recent days as the market's attention turned to this week's Fed meeting.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to raise rates for the first time since the pandemic at its meeting which concludes Wednesday, with traders looking for indications about the pace of future rate hikes. Markets anticipate a 25 basis point rise at this meeting, according to the CME's Fed watch tool, but pricing has risen to indicate a 70% chance of a larger 50 basis point hike at its subsequent meeting in May, due to concerns about inflation. 

Economic Calendar

We think the statement and Chair Powell's press conference after the meeting will be influential in terms of market pricing for a 50 basis point rise in May and beyond, and that will impact the U.S dollar intraday. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major peers was at 98.881, down 0.23% on the day mainly due to losses against the euro, but still in sight of the 99.415 touched a week ago, its highest level since May 2020. 

The yen fell as low as 118.44 per dollar on Tuesday, a new five-year low, as its recent slide showed no signs of stopping. The contrast between rising benchmark rates in the United States and low rates in Japan is becoming ever more apparent as the Fed begins to tighten, particularly with both the Fed and the Bank of Japan meeting this week. 

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Analysts at Bank of America raised their forecast for the dollar-yen to 123 by the third quarter of this year. The return of risk sentiment to markets, partly on the back of hints of a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine, has also taken away some of the support for the safe-haven Japanese currency. Russian and Ukrainian delegations held the fourth round of talks but no new progress was announced.

Euro

The single currency gained as Eurozone finance ministers agreed to tighten fiscal policy next year after pumping billions into the economy due to the coronavirus pandemic, but also to be ready with more cash should the war in Ukraine make it necessary. "The fundamentals of the euro area economy are strong," the ministers from the Euro Zone said. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.0884 and a high of 1.0665 before closing the day around 1.0934 in the New York session.

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Yen

The Japanese Yen remained under pressure and the euro edged higher as talks between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators continued, but moves were more muted than in recent days as the market's attention turned to this week's Fed meeting. The U.S Fed is set to raise rates for the first time since the pandemic at its meeting which concludes Wednesday. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 114.63 and a high of 115.53 before closing the day around 114.83 in the U.S session.

British Pound

The British Pound eked out gains against the U.S dollar yesterday, recovering after falling to a 16-month low, as tentative hopes for progress in talks between Russia and Ukraine dampened demand for U.S currency and other safe assets. The market was also looking to policy announcements from the Bank of England and the U.S Federal Reserve later this week. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3200 and a high of 1.3353 before closing the day at 1.3238 in the New York session.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened against its U.S counterpart yesterday as signs of progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine reduced investor worries that commodity supplies will be in short supply. Canada is a major producer of commodities, including oil. It is primarily a macro story as markets are repricing the Russian premium. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2667 and a high of 1.2789 before closing the day at 1.2735 in the New York session.

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Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar slipped yesterday as hints of progress in Russian-Ukraine talks saw global commodity prices come off the boil, while the U.S dollar looked forward to the start of an extended cycle of rate hikes this week. The Aussie fared better on the yen as the Bank of Japan is keeping bond yields near zero and high resource prices are weakening Japan's trade account. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7138 and a high of 0.7235 before closing the day at 0.7231 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 1.70%.

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 1.35%.

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.06%.

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Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.35%.

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.86%.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

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Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg

Boris Schlossberg is back once again to give his take on the Trading Week Ahead this week. It's a big week for the US Fed this week, as it meets to push through its first increase in interest rates since the pandemic, against an increasingly volatile situation in Ukraine. Last week, the markets witnessed parabolic moves for both oil and gold as risk-off sentiment increased, however, those moves didn't last long and soon reversed Gold and Oil to the Nasdaq and Bitcoin.

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Have a burning question for Boris and Kathy after today's Week Ahead analysis? Well, this Wednesday is your chance to talk to the man themselves, while also getting an update on how this week's trading has progressed. Book your seat at this Wednesday's live webinar to get all the updated insight into what key levels to look out for as we approach the weekend.

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