Trade Zone Week Ahead with Boris Schlossberg

Boris Schlossberg is back once again to give his take on the Trading Week Ahead this week. It's a big week for the US Fed this week, as it meets to push through its first increase in interest rates since the pandemic, against an increasingly volatile situation in Ukraine. Last week, the markets witnessed parabolic moves for both oil and gold as risk-off sentiment increased, however, those moves didn't last long and soon reversed Gold and Oil to the Nasdaq and Bitcoin.

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Have a burning question for Boris and Kathy after today's Week Ahead analysis? Well, this Wednesday is your chance to talk to the man themselves, while also getting an update on how this week's trading has progressed. Book your seat at this Wednesday's live webinar to get all the updated insight into what key levels to look out for as we approach the weekend.

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The markets seems to be pricing in on the FOMC meeting

US stock markets: Major U.S stock indexes tumbled on Friday as tech and growth shares led a broad decline and investors worried about the conflict in Ukraine while attention turned to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 229.88 points or 0.69%, the S&P 500 lost 55.21 points or 1.30% and the NASDAQ dropped 286.15 points or 2.18%. Notably, a key measure of U.S. inflation expectations climbed to 3% and near-record highs. That merely cemented expectations the Federal Reserve would lift rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting this week and signal more to come through members' "dot plot" forecasts.

Economic Calendar

The dots will likely be mainly clustered around four or five hikes for 2022, up from three previously, given the stronger pace of inflation since the January FOMC meeting. We suspect we could also get an addendum on how the Fed plans to reduce the size of the balance sheet as early as this week.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.69%. The biggest gainers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were McDonald’s Corporation, which rose 2.19% or 4.87 points to trade at 226.87 at the close. Caterpillar Inc. added 1.44% or 3.04 points to end at 214.83 and The Travelers Companies Inc. was up 1.07% or 1.84 points to 173.73 in late trade. The biggest losers included Nike Inc., which lost 2.70% or 3.40 points to trade at 122.63 in late trade. Apple Inc. declined 2.39% or 3.79 points to end at 154.73 and JPMorgan Chase & Co shed 2.25% or 2.97 points to 128.89.

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NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index lost 2.18%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Terawulf Inc. which rose 49.29% to 9.51, Guardforce AI Co Ltd which was up 45.04% to settle at 0.78 and Clearside Biomedical Inc. which gained 42.59% to close at 1.92. The worst performers were Orphazyme which was down 45.75% to 0.68 in late trade, Zhongchao Inc. which lost 38.24% to settle at 1.05 and Exela Technologies Inc. which was down 32.68% to 0.57 at the close.

Oil price - Crude Oil market, Brent Oil market

Oil prices shed as much as $4 a barrel today, extending last week's decline as diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine geared up and markets braced for higher U.S interest rates. U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures eased $3.85 or 3.5% to $105.48 a barrel. 

Ukrainian and Russian negotiators are set to talk again via video link after both sides cited progress. Negotiators had given their most upbeat assessments after weekend negotiations, suggesting there could be positive results within days. 

Trade Commodities Today! GOLD, SILVER, and OIL

Oil prices might continue moderating this week as investors have been digesting the impact of sanctions on Russia, along with parties showing signs of negotiation towards ceasing fire. As markets had priced in for a much tighter supply from February to early March, the focus is shifting to the monetary policy in the upcoming FOMC meeting this week, which could strengthen the USD further, and pressure on commodity prices. 

The U.S Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 15-16 to decide whether or not to raise interest rates.

Precious and Base Metals - Gold price, Silver price, Palladium price

Gold prices fell today as U.S rate-hike expectations lifted Treasury yields to their highest in a month, while hopes for progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks improved risk appetite, denting bullion's appeal. 

Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Higher rates, aimed at curbing inflation, also dent gold's appeal as an inflation hedge. Spot gold was down 0.5% at $1,975.90 per ounce. U.S gold futures shed 0.3% to $1,979.90. One key reason is surging Treasury yields.

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Also market seems to be pricing in on the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting on Wednesday at which the U.S. Federal Reserve may start to kick off the tightening cycle. So, this is a negative factor for gold. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to a near one-month high as the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at a two-day event later this week. 

Our expectations are, barring any unforeseen events in the current Russia-Ukraine conflict, for the gold price to settle towards $1,900/oz over the following weeks. Global shares gained as diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine were stepping up on Monday, with Ukrainian and Russian negotiators set to talk again after both sides cited progress.

Palladium, used by automakers in catalytic converters to curb emissions, dipped 4.5% to $2,688.93 per ounce. The metal hit a record high of $3,440.76 last week, driven by fears of supply disruptions from top producer Russia. Russian mining giant Nornickel is facing significant logistics issues but has managed to secure alternative routes for its palladium deliveries. Among other metals, spot silver shed 0.6% to $25.64 per ounce, while platinum dropped 2.4% to $1,053.92.

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Traditional Agricultures - Corn futures, Wheat futures,  Soybean futures

Wheat and corn futures fell today on hopes supply from the Black Sea region could normalize as Russian and Ukrainian officials gave their most upbeat assessments yet of progress in their talks following Moscow's invasion of its neighbor. Soybean futures rose on Argentina's decision to halt exports registration of soy products, which could tighten the oilseed supplies already squeezed by drought.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Volatility in commodity prices and threatening global economic growth

• The dollar rose on Friday, notching a five-year high against the safe-haven yen
• Russian President said there had been some progress in talks between Moscow and Ukraine
• Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a "special operation," has roiled markets

The dollar rose on Friday, notching a five-year high against the safe-haven yen, while commodity-linked currencies slumped after Russian President Vladimir Putin said there had been some progress in talks between Moscow and Ukraine. 

Putin said in a meeting with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko that there had been "certain positive shifts" in negotiations with Ukraine and that talks continued practically on a daily basis. Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a "special operation," has roiled markets, causing volatility in commodity prices and threatening global economic growth prospects. 

The dollar initially declined on the news, but then gradually firmed and was last up 0.76% against a basket of six global peers at 99.11. The index was on track for a 0.56% increase for the week, following last week's 2% rise, which was its largest weekly percentage gain since April 2020. The greenback hit a five-year high against the Japanese yen, which was down 1.03% at 117.32 yen.

Economic Calendar

When people are taking a look at which economies are poised to handle the widespread inflationary pressures, the U.S. economy is looking like it's going to be the outperformer and that's why you're seeing the dollar do well against the yen in these risk-averse times. The dollar has also been supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates at the end of its March 15-16 policy meeting, with inflation running hot. 

While the U.S. central bank is all but certain to hike rates from the COVID-19 pandemic low, the Bank of Japan, which also holds a policy meeting next week, is set to remain an outlier. The euro slid 0.69% against the dollar to $1.0912, erasing gains from the overnight session and putting it on track to end the week slightly lower for what would be its sixth-straight weekly loss. The single currency has fallen more than 2.5% against the U.S. dollar in March. 

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After hitting a nearly two-year low on Monday amid growing stagflation worries arising from the Ukraine war, the euro received some support from the European Central Bank's announcement that it will phase out its stimulus, opening the door to an interest rate hike before the end of 2022. 

Commodity-linked currencies, including the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar, were lower versus the greenback, with the Aussie and the kiwi both down 0.8%. Currencies that had been gainers because of the commodity chaos are starting to come down a little bit.

Euro

The single currency traded lower in Friday’s trading session. Eurozone finance ministers are likely to endorse later in today's session the European Commission's view that fiscal policy should move from supportive to neutral in 2023, but that they must be ready with more cash should the war in Ukraine make it necessary. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.0900 and a high of 1.1041 before closing the day around 1.0909 in the New York session.

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Yen

The Japanese Yen fell to a new 5 year low. The dollar initially declined on the news, but then gradually firmed and was last up 0.76% against a basket of six global peers at 99.11. The index was on track for a 0.56% increase for the week, following last week's 2% rise, which was its largest weekly percentage gain since April 2020.. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 116.10 and a high of 117.34 before closing the day around 117.25 in the U.S session.

British Pound

The British Pound slipped to a 16-month low on Friday against the safe-haven U.S dollar and was heading for its third consecutive weekly decline as stronger-than-expected UK economic growth did little to support the pound. The Office for National Statistics said Britain’s economy grew 0.8% in January, the strongest monthly expansion since June. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3025 and a high of 1.3123 before closing the day at 1.3032 in the New York session.

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Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar strengthened against its broadly stronger U.S counterpart on Friday as domestic data showed a blockbuster jobs gain in February, helping to underpin expectations for another Bank of Canada interest rate hike next month. Canada added 336,600 jobs in February, more than double the 160,000 analysts had forecast. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2691 and a high of 1.2791 before closing the day at 1.2744 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar slipped today in the Asian trading session as hints of progress in Russian-Ukraine talks saw global commodity prices come off the boil, while the U.S dollar looked forward to the start of an extended cycle of rate hikes this week. Futures continue to price in a first hike of the 0.1% cash rate by June, or July at the latest. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7138 and a high of 0.7235 before closing the day at 0.7231 in the New York session.

Trading Signals and Trading Forecasts

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.27%.

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.58%.

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.05%.

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.28%.

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.17%.

Elliott waves trading idea for Gold and Silver safe assets UPDATE

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Elliott waves trading idea for Gold and Silver safe assets UPDATE

Hello traders and investors. I am Radi Valov, a professional trader, and today I would like to show you an update of my previous analysis on the commodities Gold and Silver. Recent weeks have been quite positive for both metals, which have traditionally been considered safe assets during market turbulence. Even before the invasion of Ukraine began, my expectations were for an upward development in both commodities. 

Anyone who wants to can view my previous analyzes with larger and older time frames. Below are my previous analysis on the commodities Gold and Silver:

28.02.2022: Elliot Waves trading idea for Gold, Silver, and Gdx 

14.02.2022: Elliott waves signal for Gold update

07.02.2022: Elliott waves signal for Silver

04.02.2022: Elliott waves signal for Gold

Today I will start with the weekly silver chart.

Silver Weekly Chart

After closing this week, I have every reason to view the bottom-up rise on February 3-21,900 as a completed impulse for wave (I). This means that in the coming weeks there will be a downward correction, my expectation is that the correction will find support in the area around 24-24,800 and after its completion will start a very strong upward momentum for wave (iii). 

The critical point at the moment for the whole analysis is the bottom wave (i) - 21,900.

Gold Daily Chart

And with gold, I see the rise after the bottom of wave (e) as a complete impulse for wave (i). My expectations are for the development of a downward correction for wave (ii) to find support in the area around 1900-1940. After the correction is completed, a new upward phase will develop, which will take the price to new historical highs.

The critical point for the whole analysis at the moment is the bottom of wave (e) -1780.

At this stage it is still too early to determine the type of correction for both metals, with further development when there is already a structure in place I will release an update with more details on smaller time frames.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The dollar hit a new five-year top on the yen on Friday after a strong U.S. inflation report

• Hawkish turn from the ECB was offset by growth risks emanating from the Ukraine crisis
• The Sterling rose against the euro yesterday after a brief fall
• The Australian dollar was heading higher again today, continuing the zig-zag pattern

Forex market

The dollar hit a new five-year top on the yen on Friday after a strong U.S. inflation report, while the euro struggled to hold its own as a hawkish turn from the European Central Bank was offset by growth risks emanating from the Ukraine crisis. 

The greenback rose as high as 116.55 yen in early trade, its highest level since January 2017. The dollar is up 1.5% on the yen this week, its biggest weekly gain since October. Dollar-yen looks to be overwhelmingly a yield play. It seems the contrast between an on-hold BOJ and a Fed readying for liftoff is just too tempting to ignore.

Economic Calendar

Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan have policy meetings next week, but while the Fed is all but certain to hike rates from their pandemic low, the BOJ is set to remain an outlier and hold onto a dovish stance on monetary policy, weighing on the yen. Data on Thursday showed that U.S. consumer prices surged 7.9% year-over-year in February, the largest annual increase in 40 years, even before the surge in commodities prices caused by the war in Ukraine has had its full effect.

The CPI data basically indicates that the Fed should be hiking rates this month, but it also indicates that they will keep going with hikes at least initially. The euro was last little changed at $1.1005. It finished a choppy Thursday 0.8% lower, but in the course of the day, it had risen to as high as $1.112 and dropped as low as $1.0975. 

Trading Signals and Trading Forecasts

The more hawkish message from the ECB had a temporary upward pressure on the euro but it was very short-lived which tells you that other dynamics are overriding any considerations about what the ECB might do, including news coming from Ukraine. The ECB said yesterday it will phase out its stimulus in the third quarter, opening the door to an interest rate hike before the end of 2022 to combat soaring inflation. 

Talks between Ukraine and Russia's foreign ministers on Thursday made little apparent progress towards ending a war that is now in its third week. The war has also weighed on sterling which was languishing near a 16 month low.

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Euro

The single currency retreated from its overnight gains yesterday following the European Central Bank's announcement it will phase out its stimulus in the third quarter, while the dollar strengthened after a strong U.S. inflation report. The ECB is trailing other major central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.0884 and a high of 1.0665 before closing the day around 1.0934 in the New York session.

Yen

The Japanese Yen fell to a new 5 years lower after a strong U.S inflation report. The greenback rose as high as 116.55 yen in early trade, its highest level since January 2017. The dollar is up 1.5% on the yen this week, its biggest weekly gain since October. Data on Thursday showed that U.S consumer prices surged 7.9% year-over-year in February. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 114.63 and a high of 115.53 before closing the day around 114.83 in the U.S session.

British Pound

The British Pound rose against the euro yesterday after a brief fall when the European Central Bank announced it would end asset purchases earlier than expected. Meanwhile, it fell versus the dollar after easing oil prices and unsuccessful talks between Ukraine’s and Russia’s foreign ministers failed to dampen demand for safe-haven currencies. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3200 and a high of 1.3353 before closing the day at 1.3238 in the New York session.

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Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar was little changed against a broadly stronger U.S counterpart yesterday, with the loonie holding on to its previous day's gains as oil prices rose and U.S data showed inflation climbing to a 40-year high. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, bounced from a sharp drop in the previous session. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2667 and a high of 1.2789 before closing the day at 1.2735 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar heading higher again today, continuing the zig-zag pattern of the week as the risk of a prolonged Russian-Ukraine conflict kept commodity prices elevated and weighed on the euro. There was much surprise in the market at news Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Guy Debelle had resigned to take a job in a green energy group. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7138 and a high of 0.7235 before closing the day at 0.7231 in the New York session.

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Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 1.70%.

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 1.35%.

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.06%.

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.35%.

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.86%.

What is Forex Trading?

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Elliott waves forex trading idea for USD/JPY medium-term upward cycle

Hello traders and investors. I am Radi Valov, a professional trader and today, March 11, 2022, I will present my Elliot waves analysis of one of the most traded currency pairs on the forex market - USD / JPY. Despite the increased volatility in all forex, commodities, and crypto markets in the recent weeks due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine the USD / JPY, trade was quite calm without sharp movements.

I'll start directly with the weekly forex trading chart.  If you would like to see bigger and older time frames you can look at my previous analyses of this currency pair. 09.02.2022: Elliott waves forex signal for USD/JPY

 USD/JPY Weekly Chart

On the weekly chart we are in a medium-term upward cycle, which I expect to develop within the upward price channel of the chart and in the long run to reach its upper limit in the area of about 150.

 USD/JPY Daily Chart

In the previous analysis I published for this currency pair, my expectations were for the development of wave 4. Since then, the corrective movement has developed, which in structure meets all the rules for a symmetrical triangle. Symmetrical triangles are generally corrections in the 4th or X wave.

After the bottom in the zone of 114.60 from last Friday, the triangle for wave 4 can be considered complete and I expect an upward development for wave 5, which will take this pair to the zone around 118.80, and with the extension of this 5th wave, it is possible to see a lot. higher values to the area around 123 before the completion of this first ascending phase for wave (1) or (A).

For all those who are looking for deals with a very good risk/return ratio, good opportunities can be found in USD / JPY in the coming days.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.