Elliott waves forex trading idea for AUD/USD

Hello traders and investors. I am Radi Valov, a professional trader and today  I will present you my forex analysis for AUD /USD. In general, in recent weeks the forex market has had more volatility too. Today I want to pay special attention to this currency pair, as according to my forex analysis we are in the initial stage of a new upward cycle.

AUD/USD-Weekly Chart

The Australian and New Zealand dollars are generally perceived as risky assets and have traditionally risen during the rising phases of the stock market. However, in recent weeks the correlation between these two currency pairs and the stock markets has been much weaker and we are likely to see a new trend. 

Since my previous analysis of this forex pair, my expectations are that the correction for wave (B) or (X) has ended as a double zigzag and a new upturn phase is beginning, which in the long run will take AUD / USD to around 0.90.

AUD/USD-Daily Chart

A confirmation that we have started a new upward cycle we will have at a break of 0.7560. (peak of wave X)

After the bottom in the area of 0.6960 on a two-day chart, a triple has developed upwards, which I have designated as (a) - (c) - (c). At this stage, wave (c) may not be over yet, but my expectations here are for a slight correction to find support in the area around 0.7280-7330, after which the upward movement to continue with potential targets first 0.7560 and 0.7760.

Elliott waves forex trading idea for EUR/USD GBP/USD and AUD/USD

Until we see a breakthrough in the 0.7560 alternate scenarios with blue on the graph is still possible. In this scenario, the last Z wave should start from a current level to make a new bottom, but for now, the preferential scenario is red on the chart and we stick to it. If there is a potential development to confirm the bearish option, I will release a quick update.

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Elliott waves trading idea for Copper update

Hello traders and investors. I am Radi Valov, a professional trader and today  I would like to make a quick update to my analysis for copper. The moment for this commodity is especially interesting because according to my analysis, the movement here is just beginning. (see my previous analysis for copper)

Copper-Daily Chart

After today's closing, it can be safely assumed that the symmetrical triangle I am considering for wave (4) is complete. This means that we are starting a new ascending phase for wave (5). A potential conservative target for this wave is around 550-580, but it should be borne in mind that very often the last fifth wave in commodities becomes the longest in impulse movement and ends with parabolic acceleration, which means a much larger target. A critical point for the bullish scenario at the moment is the bottom of wave E - 444. A break at this level would mean that the alternative scenario with blue on the graph is valid.

Copper-1 Hour Chart

After the bottom, which I consider for the end of wave E, a very clear impulse movement develops and I allowed myself to go down to a one-hour trading chart for all who are looking for a precise input with a very high risk/return ratio.

I expect in the coming days to see a correction of this rise marked as wave 1 on the chart. It is possible that the price will return to the area around 460-466, which would be an ideal level of support for the development of upward acceleration for wave 3.

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Developments around the war in Ukraine will remain the main driver of euro price action

• Investors worried about the impact of conflict in Ukraine on the euro zone's economic prospects
• Data yesterday showed U.S. private employers hired more workers than expected in February
• The Canadian currency extended gains after the Bank of Canada on Wednesday raised interest rates

The dollar edged higher against the euro on Wednesday, as investors worried about the impact of an escalating conflict in Ukraine on the euro zone's economic prospects, while commodity-linked currencies strengthened. 

The Russian rouble extended its recent slide to hit record lows in Moscow trade as stinging Western sanctions over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine pummeled Russia's financial system. Developments around the war in Ukraine will remain the main driver of euro price action for the session.

 A continued escalation of conflict with no clear off-ramps for Russia is pulling the euro toward a test of 1.10 in the coming days. The euro was 0.3% lower against the dollar, after slipping to a fresh 21-month low of 1.1059, earlier in the session. 

Economic Calendar

We believe investors should underweight the euro area in both the currency and the equity space given its vulnerability to any further escalation. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve will move forward with plans to raise interest rates this month to try to tame inflation, even as the outbreak of war in Ukraine has made the outlook "highly uncertain", Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday. Judging from just his testimony... it's pretty much in line with our view that the Federal Reserve is going to hike rates at the next meeting. 

Data on Wednesday showed U.S. private employers hired more workers than expected in February and data for the prior month was revised sharply higher as the labor market recovery gathers steam. Commodity-linked currencies, including the Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand currencies were firmer as investors expect to benefit from higher commodity prices.

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Euro

The single currency was pinned near a 21-month low today by worries that Russia's invasion of Ukraine will hurt European growth, while commodity currencies hit multi-week highs as export prices surged. On a corporate level there is web of complex relationships between the EU and Russian firms, particularly in the energy sector. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1140 and a high of 1.1245 before closing the day around 1.1216 in the New York session.

Yen

The Japanese Yen gained as investors worried about the impact of an escalating conflict in Ukraine, while commodity-linked currencies strengthened. Meanwhile, the U.S Federal Reserve will move forward with plans to raise interest rates this month to try to tame inflation, even as the outbreak of war in Ukraine has made the outlook highly uncertain Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 114.84 and a high of 115.72 before closing the day around 114.98 in the U.S session.

British Pound

The British Pound rose against a weakening euro yesterday, with investors focusing on market bets on UK and eurozone rate hikes amid concerns about the economic impact of the war in Ukraine. The pound edged higher also versus a rising dollar while investors continued to rush into safe-haven assets. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3326 and a high of 1.3430 before closing the day at 1.3416 in the New York session.

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Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar rose yesterday against the greenback and all the other G10 currencies, as the Bank of Canada hiked interest rates for the first time since October 2018 despite recent financial market volatility due to the crisis in Ukraine. Canada's central bank hiked its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.50% as expected to help fight inflation. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2657 and a high of 1.2807 before closing the day at 1.2672 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar sped to a four-year high on the euro yesterday as monster gains in commodity prices looked set to shower exporters in cash, and Europe desperately sought replacements for Russian supplies. Commodities are on a tear as ever-tightening sanctions on Russia have markets fearing major shortages of everything from oil to aluminum to wheat. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7138 and a high of 0.7235 before closing the day at 0.7231 in the New York session.

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Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.96%.

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.43%.

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.07%.

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.51%.

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.89%.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Brent surpassing $107 and U.S. crude above $106 per barrel

US stock markets: Wall Street slumped today, with financial stocks bearing the brunt of the damage for a second straight day as the Russia-Ukraine crisis deepened and stirred anxiety among investors. 

All 11 major S&P sectors declined, with financials tumbling 4.3% and tracking their biggest daily percentage decline since June 2020. Wells Fargo lost 6.1%, while the broader banks index slid 5.7% as U.S. 10- year Treasury yields slumped to five-week lows amid a flight to safe-haven debt. Chevron Corp climbed 2.7% to hit a record high after the oil major also raised its share buyback program and forecast for operating cash flow through 2026, and as oil prices surged. 

Economic Calendar

Russia warned Kyiv residents to flee their homes and rained rockets on the city of Kharkiv as Russian commanders intensified their bombardment of Ukrainian urban areas in a shift of tactics after their six-day assault stalled. The conflict has drawn sharp reprisals from the West including the blocking of certain Russian lenders’ access to the SWIFT international payment system.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.76%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Chevron Corp, which rose 3.9722% or 5.71 points to trade at 149.72 at the close. Meanwhile, Home Depot Inc. added 1.3995% or 4.42 points to end at 320.25 and Walmart Inc. was up 0.6141% or 0.82 points to 135.99 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were American Express Company, which fell 8.4713% or 16.47 points to trade at 178.05 at the close. Boeing Co declined 5.0794% or 10.43 points to end at 194.91 and JPMorgan Chase & Co was down 3.7729% or 5.34 points to 136.44.

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NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index fell 1.59%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Avenue Therapeutics Inc. which rose 78.46% to 0.60, CTi Biopharma Corp which was up 63.15% to settle at 3.09 and Gbs which gained 50% to close at 0.69. The worst performers were Vroom which was down 46.54% to 3.25 in late trade, Mullen Automotive Inc. which lost 39.34% to settle at 1.02 and Goodrx Holdings Inc. which was down 38.94% to 16.72 at the close.

Oil price - Crude Oil market, Brent Oil market

Oil prices surged over 7% on Tuesday to their highest since 2014, as a global agreement to release crude reserves failed to calm fears about supply disruptions from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Members of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which includes the United States and Japan, agreed to release 60 million barrels of crude from their reserves to try to quell the sharp increase in prices that pushed major benchmarks past $100 a barrel. However, news of that release - equivalent to less than one day of worldwide oil consumption - only magnified the market's fear that supply will be inadequate to cover growing disruptions. 

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U.S WTI crude rose $7.69, or 8.0%, to settle at $103.41. That was its highest close since July 2014 and its biggest daily percentage gain since November 2020. Markets rallied further in thin post-close trading, with Brent surpassing $107 and U.S. crude above $106 per barrel after the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said U.S crude stocks fell by more than 6 million barrels in the most recent week.

Precious and Base Metals - Gold price, Silver price, Palladium price

Gold was down today morning in Asia as the U.S. dollar strengthens. Gold futures were down 0.26% to $1,938.75. The yellow metal rose about 6.5% in February, hitting an 18-month high of $1,973.96 last week. The dollar, which normally moves inversely to gold, inched up 0.04%. 

Investors are flocking to safe-haven assets as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine intensified. Russia warned Kyiv residents to flee their homes, and Russian commanders have intensified the bombardment of Ukrainian cities. The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield rose to 1.7548% from 1.711% late on Tuesday. Investors are concerned about aggressive interest rate hikes of the U.S. Federal Reserve in the next few months amid the Ukraine tensions and soaring inflation. 

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Investors also await Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before the U.S. Congress on Wednesday and Thursday for more clues on interest rate hikes. SPDR Gold Trust, holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 1.3% to 1,042.38 tones on Tuesday, the highest since July 2021. In other precious metals. 

Palladium rose 1.2%, after hitting a seven-month peak of $2,722.79 on Tuesday. Russia is the biggest producer of palladium, with Moscow-based Nornickel accounting for 40% of the metal’s global mine production last year. Silver fell 0.9%, while platinum was up 0.1%. Palladium rose today, extending gains after hitting a seven-month peak in the previous session as the Russia-Ukraine crisis worsened, while gold fell after the dollar strengthened. 

The war and the sanctions imposed by Western nations on Russia significantly cut off access to Russian palladium supply. Ukraine's besieged cities were bracing for more attacks on Wednesday, as Russian commanders facing fierce Ukrainian resistance intensify their bombardment of urban areas in a push toward the capital Kyiv.

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Traditional Agricultures - Corn futures

Corn futures jumped by their daily limit while wheat futures spiked after hitting 13-1/2-year highs on Friday on concerns that Russia's attack on Ukraine will continue to disrupt exports from the Black Sea region. Ukrainian ports will remain closed until Russia's invasion ends, the head of Ukraine's Maritime Administration said.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The euro was under pressure as intensifying Russian bombardment of Ukraine's cities

• The dollar was down on Wednesday morning in Asia, but the moves were small
• Investors flocking to safe-haven assets as Russia’s invasion into Ukraine intensified
• Investors who have assets in Russia that will be increasingly challenging to divest

The dollar was down today morning in Asia, but the moves were small. Investors flocking to safe-haven assets as Russia’s invasion into Ukraine intensified. 

The US Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies inched down 0.01%. The euro was under pressure today as intensifying Russian bombardment of Ukraine's cities and surging oil prices raised investors' concerns about a hit to Europe's economy and growth.

Economic Calendar

The common currency briefly fell below support to touch a 21-month low of $1.1090 overnight, before recovering a slightly to last trade at $1.1114. The risk is a sustained move below $1.1106 if market participants downgrade the Eurozone economic outlook. Sterling, which fell 0.7% overnight, was also squeezed at $1.3305. 

Russian forces were attempting to encircle and subdue Ukrainian cities with intensifying bombardments on Wednesday, seven days into an invasion that has sparked massive international sanctions, pushing international companies to halt sales, cut ties, and dump tens of billions of dollars worth of investments.

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Russia's ruble remained under pressure at 108 per dollar, having fallen as low as 120 earlier in the week. Commodity-linked currencies, such as the Australian dollar, continued to hold their own as surging prices for oil, gas, coal, and grains provided support. The Australian dollar gained 0.2% to $0.7265, also helped by data showing the Australian economy performed strongly in the fourth quarter. The Aussie is at a one-year high versus the euro. The strength of commodity prices combined with Australia's much improved current account position suggests that there is good reason to expect AUD/USD to break with its traditional role of a 'higher risk' G10 currency. 

In contrast, high energy prices have been capping gains for the safe-haven Japanese yen, despite the geopolitical turmoil, as Japan imports the bulk of its energy. It slipped back to 115.06 per dollar today. Markets were largely unmoved by U.S. President Joe Biden's State of the Union address.

CFD News: US Stock Markets

Euro

The single currency was under pressure today as intensifying Russian bombardment of Ukraine's cities and surging oil prices raised investors' concerns about a hit to Europe's economy and growth. The risk is a sustained move below $1.1106 if market participants downgrade the Eurozone economic outlook. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1140 and a high of 1.1245 before closing the day around 1.1216 in the New York session.

Yen

The Japanese Yen traded lower despite the geopolitical turmoil, as Japan imports the bulk of its energy. It slipped back to 115.06 per dollar. Markets were largely unmoved by U.S President Joe Biden's State of the Union address. Biden touched on the subject of America's recent troubles with high inflation but the solutions he offered were long-term. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 114.84 and a high of 115.72 before closing the day around 114.98 in the U.S session.

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British Pound

The British Pound steadied yesterday against the euro and the dollar as investors awaited speeches from Bank of England officials and watched for developments on the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Risk assets, like stocks and sterling, regained some ground after reports of ceasefire talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials began on the Belarusian border. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3326 and a high of 1.3430 before closing the day at 1.3416 in the New York session.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged higher as investors weighed uncertainty caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and domestic data showed the economy expanding at a robust pace in the fourth quarter. The Canadian economy grew 6.7% in the fourth quarter on an annualized basis, beating analyst expectations and the BoC's own forecast of 5.8%. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2657 and a high of 1.2807 before closing the day at 1.2672 in the New York session.

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Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar hit a one-year high on the euro today as investors were attracted by Australia's status as a net energy exporter and distance from Europe's troubles. The war in Ukraine, and the resulting spike in energy prices, have darkened the outlook for European growth and seen markets drastically scale back expectations on when the European Central Bank may tighten policy. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7138 and a high of 0.7235 before closing the day at 0.7231 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50, and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.96%.

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14, 50, and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 42 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.43%.

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 54 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.07%.

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal.

The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.51%.

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.89%.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Gold is often used as a safe store of value during times of political and financial uncertainty

US Stock Markets: Wall Street ended mixed yesterday, joining a selloff that began on European bourses as the latest wave of western sanctions targeting Russia added to worries about inflation. 

The United States over the weekend announced punishing sanctions on Russia that touched on its central bank and the ability of some financial institutions to access the SWIFT financial messaging system. The impression coming off the weekend is that Russia, and all those that oppose Russia's invasion of Ukraine, are digging in for a longer and more damaging battle on the military, financial and economic fronts. 

Economic Calendar

This week's calendar includes congressional appearances by Fed Chair Jerome Powell expected to focus on the central bank's efforts to counter inflation, as well as several key economic reports, including February jobs data. As trading began in New York, investors retreated from riskier assets while seeking out precious metals, Treasury bonds, and other safe-haven investments.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.49% yesterday. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Chevron Corp, which unchanged 0% or 0 points to trade at 133.42 at the close. Meanwhile, Boeing Co unchanged 0% or 0 points to end at 209.03, and Salesforce.com Inc. was unchanged 0% or 0 points to 196.84 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were JPMorgan Chase & Co, which unchanged 0% or 0 points to trade at 152.14 at the close. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. unchanged 0% or 0 points to end at 346.04 and Nike Inc. was 0% or 0 points to 142.95.

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NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index gained 0.41% yesterday. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Mullen Automotive Inc. which was unchanged from 0% to 0.63, Neurosense Therapeutics Ltd which was unchanged 0% to settle at 1.57, and China SXT Pharmaceuticals Inc. which unchanged 0% to close at 0.1826. The worst performers were VEON Ltd. which was unchanged from 0% to 1.3500 in late trade, Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Inc. which was unchanged at 0% to settle at 2.740 and Esports Entertainment Group Inc. which was unchanged at 0% to 2.97 at the close.

Oil - Crude Oil Market

Oil prices surged today as concerns over potential supply disruptions after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and related sanctions outweighed talks of a coordinated global crude stocks release. U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) April crude futures were up $2.56, or 2.67%, at $98.28. 

The contract touched a high of $99.10 a barrel the previous day, ending up more than 4%. A huge Russian military convoy approached Ukraine's capital Kyiv on Tuesday after ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine failed to reach a breakthrough. 

Russia's economic isolation worsened as the world's biggest shipping firm Maersk on Tuesday said it would halt container shipping to and from Russia. The fragile situation in Ukraine and financial and energy sanctions against Russia will keep the energy crisis stoked and oil well above $100 per barrel in the near-term and even higher if the conflict escalates further.

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Precious and Base Metals - Gold Market

Gold prices edged lower today after Russian and Ukrainian officials held the first round of ceasefire talks overnight, dampening demand for the safe-haven bullion. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,906.00 per ounce. U.S gold futures rose 0.5% to $1,909.30. High-level talks between Kyiv and Moscow ended with no agreement except to keep talking, but Asian markets stabilized on signs of no immediate escalation of sanctions. 

There was a swing in risk sentiment during the New York session, which reversed much of the Ukraine panic seen on Monday in Asia and Europe trade after sanctions were ramped up on Russia over the weekend. Investors are, for now, less concerned that the Ukraine war will lead to a double-dip recession and that has seen a rush back into equities at the expense of havens like gold.

CFD News

China's factory activity expanded slightly in February as new orders improved, pointing to some resilience in the world's second-largest economy. Gold often used a safe store of value during times of political and financial uncertainty, had risen about 6.5% in February, having soared to an 18- month high of $1,973.96 last week. We believe that gold may experience price volatility in either direction due to potential tactical positioning but investment demand is likely to be supported longer-term by high inflation, geopolitics, and overall market pullbacks. Auto-catalyst metal palladium gained 0.6% to $2,504.81, having reached its highest level since July 2021 at $2,711.18 last week. Spot silver was flat at $24.42 per ounce, while platinum rose 0.5% to $1,048.58.

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Traditional Agricultures

Wheat futures spiked after hitting 13-1/2-year highs on Friday, lifted by concerns that Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions will continue to disrupt grain exports from the Black Sea region. Corn and

soybean futures also rallied on worries over the crisis. Egypt's state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, canceled a second international tender for wheat amid supply uncertainty and market turbulence following the invasion. The impact of sanctions on Russia is also being assessed. Importers will have to switch elsewhere at a time of pretty tight global supplies.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.