Dollar holds near 100.00 as Iran hardliner threatens Strait of Hormuz. Oil surges past $93. PCE inflation, JOLTS, and Canada jobs in focus today.
Dollar Holds Near 100.00 as Iran War Continues; PCE Data Awaited; PCE and JOLTS Awaited
The Iran war intensifies with a new hardline leader threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil toward $94 and keeping safe-haven demand for the dollar alive. The Dollar holds near 100.00 as markets brace for today’s PCE inflation data the Fed’s preferred gauge alongside JOLTS job openings and Canada jobs reports. Will hot inflation push the Dollar past 100? Can oil break higher without triggering a broader risk-off move? This report covers the key levels, data reactions, and trading scenarios you need for the session ahead.
⚡ Market Overview
- US Dollar Index: Holds firm near 99.58, just below the key 100.00 level, as traders await PCE inflation data.
- Iran War: New hardline leader takes stance, vowing to block the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices surging.
- Oil: WTI crude jumps to $93.72 on renewed supply disruption fears.
- Today’s Catalysts: UK GDP, Canada jobs data, US PCE inflation, Durable Goods, and JOLTS Job Openings.
- Stocks: Indices end lower; Nasdaq at 24,557, S&P 500 at 6,690.
Current Market Snapshot (March 13, 2026)
| Asset | Price |
|---|---|
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 99.578 |
| EUR/USD | 1.15020 |
| GBP/USD | 1.33310 |
| USD/JPY | 159.494 |
| USD/CAD | 1.36444 |
| AUD/USD | 0.70640 |
| NZD/USD | 0.58308 |
| Gold (XAU/USD) | $5,103 |
| Silver (XAG/USD) | $84.34 |
| WTI Crude Oil | $93.72 |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $71,333 |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2,109 |
| Nasdaq | 24,557 |
| Dow Jones | 46,835 |
| S&P 500 | 6,690 |
Iran War: New Hardline Leader Vows to Block Strait of Hormuz
The Middle East conflict has entered a new, more dangerous phase. Iran’s newly installed hardline leader has taken an aggressive stance, explicitly threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes.
Market Impact
- WTI Crude: Surged to $93.72 as traders priced in a higher probability of supply disruptions.
- Oil-Linked Currencies: The move had a mixed impact. USD/CAD initially dipped on stronger oil (which benefits the Canadian Dollar) but settled higher at 1.36444 as broad USD strength dominated.
- Safe-Haven Demand: The escalation underpins demand for the US Dollar and Gold, though gold’s price action remains capped by rising yields.
What It Means
The threat to block the strait is not new, but the hardline rhetoric signals a higher willingness to follow through. Any actual disruption would send oil prices toward $100+ and exacerbate global inflation fears.
💵 US Dollar: Awaiting PCE at 100.00
The Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 99.58, consolidating just below the psychologically critical 100.00 level.
Why the Dollar Is Strong
- Fed Repricing: Markets have sharply reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026. Stronger US data and persistent inflation have pushed the first cut further out.
- Safe-Haven Demand: The escalating Iran war continues to drive flows into the Dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency.
- Rising Yields: US Treasury yields remain elevated, supported by the hawkish Fed repricing and higher oil-driven inflation expectations.
Today’s Test: PCE Inflation Data
All eyes are on the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—due later today.
| PCE Outcome | Likely DXY Reaction |
|---|---|
| Higher than forecast | Break above 100.00; rally accelerates |
| In-line with forecast | Hold near 99.50-99.80; consolidation |
| Lower than forecast | Pullback toward 99.00; profit-taking |
Other US data today: Durable Goods Orders and JOLTS Job Openings will also influence rate expectations.
Forex Pair Reactions
EUR/USD: Holding Above 1.1500
The euro is trading near 1.15020, holding modest gains ahead of the US session. The pair remains under pressure from the broad Dollar strength and Europe’s direct exposure to the energy shock. Key support is at 1.1500; a break below could accelerate losses toward 1.1450.
GBP/USD: Pound Rises as Dollar Retreats Slightly
Cable is trading around 1.33310, paring recent losses as the Dollar retreats slightly ahead of the PCE data. Today’s UK GDP (monthly) report will be a key driver. A stronger print could support the Pound; a miss may expose support at 1.3300.
USD/JPY: Yen Under Pressure Near 160
The Yen remains weak, with USD/JPY trading at 159.494, just below the key 160 level that previously triggered intervention fears. The Yen’s weakness could be due to several factors, including the wide rate differential and Japan’s energy import vulnerability. Intervention chatter is growing, but action remains unlikely unless 160 is breached decisively.
USD/CAD: Oil’s Mixed Signal
The Loonie is caught between forces. Higher oil prices typically strengthen CAD, but broad USD strength is dominating. The pair trades at 1.36444. Today’s Canadian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate reports will be crucial. Strong jobs data could support CAD; weakness may push USD/CAD toward 1.3700.
AUD/USD: Risk-Off Weighs
The Aussie is trading near 0.70640, pressured by risk-off sentiment and China growth concerns. However, Australia’s announcement that it will release fuel reserves provided some support. The RBA’s hawkish stance offers a floor, but further Dollar strength could test support at 0.7000.
NZD/USD: Mild Gains
The Kiwi is hovering around 0.58308, posting mild gains as the Dollar eases slightly. The pair remains sensitive to global risk sentiment and dairy prices. Resistance at 0.5850; support at 0.5800.
Commodities: Gold Tests Support, Oil Surges
Gold: Stuck at $5,100
Gold is trading at $5,103, caught between conflicting forces:
- Bearish: Rising US bond yields and a strong Dollar.
- Bullish: Safe-haven demand from the escalating Iran war.
Technically, gold is testing support near the $5,100 area. A break below could open a move toward $5,050; a hold could see a rebound toward $5,150.
Oil: WTI at $93.72
WTI crude is surging on the hardline Iranian rhetoric threatening the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA and Australia have announced fuel reserve releases to calm markets, but supply fears are dominating. Next resistance is at $95.00, then $100.00 psychological level.
Silver: Tracking Gold
Silver is trading at $84.34, moving in sympathy with gold but with added industrial demand sensitivity.
Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Tests $71,333
Crypto markets are showing strength despite risk-off sentiment in equities. Bitcoin is trading near $71,333, approaching key technical resistance levels.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple could breakout soon. A sustained move above $72,000 could attract momentum buyers. Ethereum is holding at $2,109, with resistance near $2,150.
Stocks: Indices End Lower
Wall Street indices ended lower as investors digested the escalating war and awaited key inflation data.
| Index | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq | 24,557 | -0.6% |
| Dow Jones | 46,835 | -0.5% |
| S&P 500 | 6,690 | -0.5% |
Energy stocks were the lone bright spot, benefiting from surging oil prices. Tech and consumer discretionary names lagged on rate concerns.
Trader’s Outlook: What to Watch Today
Key Economic Events
| Time (ET) | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Tentative | UK GDP (Monthly) | Medium – GBP volatility |
| 8:30 AM | Canadian Employment Change | High – USD/CAD mover |
| 8:30 AM | Canadian Unemployment Rate | High – USD/CAD mover |
| 8:30 AM | US PCE Price Index | HIGH – Dollar, Gold, Stocks |
| 8:30 AM | US Durable Goods Orders | Medium – USD |
| 10:00 AM | US JOLTS Job Openings | Medium – USD |
Trading Scenarios
| Scenario | Likely Reaction |
|---|---|
| Hot PCE (> forecast) | DXY breaks 100.00; EUR/USD tests 1.1450; Gold toward $5,050 |
| In-line PCE | Range trade; focus shifts to war headlines |
| Cold PCE (< forecast) | DXY pulls back to 99.00; EUR/USD toward 1.1550; Gold rebounds |
| Iran escalation | Oil spikes to $95+; safe-haven USD/JPY diverges; Gold finds floor |
Key Levels to Watch
| Asset | Support | Resistance |
|---|---|---|
| DXY | 99.20 / 99.00 | 99.80 / 100.00 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1480 / 1.1450 | 1.1550 / 1.1600 |
| GBP/USD | 1.3300 / 1.3270 | 1.3400 / 1.3450 |
| USD/JPY | 159.00 / 158.50 | 159.80 / 160.00 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3600 / 1.3550 | 1.3700 / 1.3750 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7030 / 0.7000 | 0.7100 / 0.7150 |
| Gold | $5,080 / $5,050 | $5,150 / $5,180 |
| WTI Crude | $92.50 / $91.80 | $95.00 / $97.50 |
| Bitcoin | $70,000 / $69,500 | $72,000 / $73,000 |
| S&P 500 | 6,650 / 6,600 | 6,750 / 6,800 |
Related Reading on TraderFactor
Stay Ahead of the Market
Get our daily market analysis delivered straight to your inbox, plus alerts on broker updates and trading strategies.
[Subscribe to the TraderFactor Newsletter]
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading CFDs, forex, stocks, and commodities carries significant risk. Geopolitical events can cause extreme and unexpected market movements. Always verify information from multiple sources.
FOLLOW US
