Market Outlook This Week: FOMC Minutes and ISM Services in Focus as Markets Reassess Rate Hike Bets
October 5–9, 2026 | Forex, Gold, Bitcoin, Oil & Global Stock Market Outlook
Global markets begin a new week after softer US inflation and a sharp slowdown in September employment forced traders to reassess the Federal Reserve outlook.
Attention now turns forward to US ISM Services PMI, Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting Minutes, weekly Jobless Claims and Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and inflation expectations.
Last week’s economic data produced an unusual market combination: expectations for an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike fell sharply, yet the US Dollar remains near multi-month highs as geopolitical uncertainty and safe-haven demand continue to support the Greenback.
The Dollar Index begins Monday around the 102 region, Gold is attempting to recover around $4,150–$4,200, Bitcoin is trading in the upper-$80K region and WTI crude has fallen toward $89–$90 as markets reassess Middle East supply risks.
The central question this week is whether weakening labour conditions are enough to keep the Federal Reserve on hold — or whether resilient services activity and persistent price pressures keep future tightening risks alive.
💭 QUESTION OF THE WEEK
Will weak US jobs data finally slow the Dollar rally — or will resilient services activity, inflation pressure and geopolitical risk keep DXY supported above 102?
Weekly Macro Chain:
ISM Services → FOMC Minutes → Jobless Claims → Consumer Sentiment → Dollar • Gold • Stocks
📌 Key Takeaways
- US Dollar:
DXY begins the week around 102 despite weaker US employment data. - ISM Services:
Monday’s report becomes the first major US economic test of the week. - FOMC Minutes:
Wednesday’s minutes are the week’s main Federal Reserve event. - Labour Market:
September NFP increased by only 29K while unemployment rose to 4.2%. - Gold:
XAU/USD is attempting to stabilize above $4,150 after recent heavy selling. - Inflation:
Last week’s PCE data came in softer than expected, reducing near-term Fed tightening expectations. - Bitcoin:
BTC begins the week near $86K–$87K as lower rate expectations support risk appetite. - Oil:
WTI has slipped below $90 as supply flows improve, though Middle East risk remains elevated. - Stocks:
US equities rallied Friday after weak payrolls reduced immediate rate-hike fears.
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⚡ Weekly Market Outlook: Quick Answer
The immediate Fed rate-hike story has weakened after softer inflation and a disappointing NFP report. This week, ISM Services and Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes will test whether that repricing can continue. The Dollar remains surprisingly resilient, while Gold, Bitcoin and stocks remain highly sensitive to Treasury yields.
What Happened in Markets Last Week?
Last week’s economic calendar delivered several important signals.
US NFP Misses Expectations
September Nonfarm Payrolls increased by only 29,000, well below market expectations around 90K.
August payroll growth was also revised down to 133K, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%.
Average Hourly Earnings growth also came in softer than expected.
PCE Inflation Softens
Headline PCE inflation held at 3.4% year-over-year in August.
Core PCE inflation remained at 3.0%, below market expectations.
The softer inflation reading reduced some pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy immediately.
JOLTS Job Openings Decline
US Job Openings fell to approximately 7.08 million in August, below expectations.
That reinforced signs that labour demand may be gradually cooling.
ISM Manufacturing Remains in Expansion
September ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.5.
The headline reading remained firmly above 50, while the Prices Paid component jumped sharply to 77.9.
This produced a mixed message:
Growth Still Resilient
→
Prices Still High
→
Jobs Slow
→
Fed Faces a Difficult Balance
📚 Catch Up on Last Week
💵 US Dollar Outlook: DXY Holds Near 102 Despite Weak NFP
The US Dollar outlook this week is particularly interesting because the Greenback remains strong despite a meaningful reduction in near-term Fed tightening expectations.
DXY trades around 102, close to its strongest levels since early 2025.
The Dollar is receiving support from more than monetary policy.
- Safe-haven demand
- Middle East uncertainty
- European fiscal concerns
- High long-term Treasury yields
- Relative US economic resilience
That means weaker Fed expectations do not automatically guarantee a weaker Dollar.
This week’s ISM Services data and FOMC Minutes could determine whether DXY finally begins correcting or extends toward higher liquidity.
🔥 ISM Services PMI Takes Focus Monday
The first important event of the week arrives Monday with the September ISM Services PMI.
August’s Services PMI came in at 55.4, signalling healthy expansion.
Market expectations for September are around the 55 region.
But the headline PMI may not be the most important number.
What Traders Should Watch Inside ISM Services
- Employment – important after weak NFP
- New Orders – signals future demand
- Prices Paid – key inflation indicator
- Business Activity – underlying growth momentum
A strong services report with elevated prices could revive concerns that inflation remains too persistent.
A weaker employment component could reinforce the message from Friday’s NFP report.
🏦 FOMC Minutes Wednesday: Main Fed Event This Week
Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting Minutes will provide greater detail on the September 15–16 Federal Reserve meeting.
Markets will examine how policymakers viewed inflation risks, employment conditions and the need for further monetary tightening.
The minutes are particularly important because economic conditions have changed since that meeting.
Since then:
- PCE inflation has come in softer than expected
- NFP has sharply disappointed
- Unemployment has risen to 4.2%
- JOLTS Job Openings have declined
- Manufacturing prices remain elevated
This creates the potential for an interesting disconnect between what officials were thinking in mid-September and what markets believe today.
🥇 Gold Price Forecast: Can XAU/USD Reclaim $4,200?
The Gold price outlook this week begins with XAU/USD trading around $4,150–$4,200.
Gold has recovered from last week’s lows as weak payrolls reduced expectations for an immediate Fed rate increase.
However, the metal continues to face an important obstacle:
The US Dollar remains strong.
Gold bulls therefore need more than a decline in rate-hike expectations.
A sustained recovery may also require Treasury yields and DXY to weaken.
- Immediate Support: $4,125 / $4,100
- Major Support: $4,050 / $4,000
- Resistance: $4,200 / $4,230
- Higher Resistance: $4,280 / $4,300
🥇 Gold SMC / ICT Weekly Checklist
- Previous Week High / Low – external liquidity
- Weekly Open – directional reference
- Friday High / Low – early-week liquidity
- PDH / PDL – daily liquidity pools
- Asian High / Low – session liquidity
- $4,200 – key reclaim area
- $4,100 – downside liquidity
- DXY 102 – macro confirmation
- US Yields – confirm Gold direction
- Entry Model: Sweep → Displacement → MSS / CHOCH → FVG / OB → Liquidity
Forex Market Outlook This Week
EUR/USD Forecast
EUR/USD begins the week near its weakest levels in more than a year.
The Euro is facing pressure from both a strong Dollar and concerns surrounding France’s fiscal outlook.
- Support: 1.1150 / 1.1080
- Resistance: 1.1250 / 1.1320
A sustained break below 1.1150 could expose further downside liquidity.
GBP/USD Forecast
GBP/USD begins Monday around 1.3240.
Sterling is holding somewhat better than the Euro, but broad Dollar demand remains a significant headwind.
- Support: 1.3200 / 1.3150
- Resistance: 1.3300 / 1.3350
AUD/USD Forecast
AUD/USD trades near 0.6930–0.6950.
The Australian Dollar continues to benefit from a relatively hawkish RBA backdrop, but strong USD demand has limited the upside.
- Support: 0.6900 / 0.6880
- Resistance: 0.6980 / 0.7000
NZD/USD Forecast
NZD/USD is trading near recent lows below the 0.5600–0.5620 region.
The Kiwi remains highly sensitive to Dollar strength and global risk sentiment.
- Support: 0.5580 / 0.5550
- Resistance: 0.5650 / 0.5700
USD/CAD Forecast
USD/CAD remains above the mid-1.4200 region, close to its strongest levels since early 2025.
The Canadian Dollar is facing pressure from both broad USD strength and weaker crude oil prices.
- Support: 1.4200 / 1.4150
- Resistance: 1.4300 / 1.4350
USD/JPY Forecast
USD/JPY begins the week around 157.5–158.0.
The pair remains supported by Dollar demand, although expectations for further Bank of Japan tightening and intervention risk may limit upside.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is also scheduled to speak Tuesday.
- Support: 156.50 / 155.50
- Resistance: 158.50 / 160.00
USD/CHF Forecast
USD/CHF trades around 0.8310.
The pair continues to benefit from Dollar demand and the wide US-Swiss yield differential.
- Support: 0.8270 / 0.8230
- Resistance: 0.8350 / 0.8400
₿ Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC Pushes Toward $90K
Bitcoin begins the week around the $86K–$87K region after extending its multi-week recovery.
The weak NFP report reduced expectations for aggressive near-term tightening, improving the macro environment for crypto.
However, BTC remains sensitive to the Dollar and Treasury yields.
- Support: $84K / $82K
- Resistance: $88K / $90K
A sustained break above $90K would place higher liquidity zones back in focus.
🛢️ WTI Oil Outlook: Crude Falls Below $90 but Geopolitical Risk Remains
WTI begins the week near $89–$90 per barrel.
Oil has retreated as physical supply flows improve and OPEC+ keeps its November production targets unchanged.
The G7 has also announced emergency releases of crude and fuel products to help ease supply pressures.
However, the geopolitical risk premium has not disappeared.
Middle East shipping routes remain vulnerable to disruption, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.
🌍 Geopolitical Market Outlook
Middle East: Oil Routes Remain the Main Market Risk
The Middle East remains the largest immediate geopolitical risk for financial markets.
Saudi-backed forces in Yemen have launched a major offensive against Houthi positions while maritime attacks continue around key regional shipping routes.
At the same time, improved crude flows and emergency reserve releases have helped push Oil prices lower.
Any renewed interruption to major shipping routes could quickly reverse Oil’s decline and push inflation expectations higher again.
Russia-Ukraine: Energy Infrastructure Back in Focus
The Russia-Ukraine conflict also remains a secondary risk for European energy markets.
Recent attacks have increasingly targeted infrastructure and energy facilities ahead of winter.
Additional disruptions to Russian refining, Black Sea shipping or Ukrainian energy infrastructure could influence European fuel prices and broader risk sentiment.
Europe: French Fiscal Concerns Pressure the Euro
Political and fiscal uncertainty in France is adding another layer of pressure to EUR/USD.
For traders, European sovereign bond yields and the Euro should be monitored together this week, particularly if French fiscal concerns deepen.
📈 Stock Market Outlook: Weak NFP Helps Wall Street Recover
US stocks rallied Friday after the weak jobs report reduced fears of another immediate Federal Reserve rate hike.
- S&P 500: 7,722.72
- Dow Jones: 51,176.96
- Nasdaq Composite: 27,190.86
- Nasdaq 100: 30,807.93
The Nasdaq remains especially sensitive to Treasury yields.
If the FOMC Minutes and ISM Services reinforce expectations for a Fed pause, growth stocks could benefit.
However, another sharp rise in inflation-sensitive components could push yields higher again.
Current Market Prices
Levels are approximate reference prices and may vary between brokers, exchanges and contracts.
Weekly Support & Resistance Levels
| Asset | Current | Support | Resistance | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | ~102.1 | 101.50 / 101.00 | 102.50 / 103.00 | Bullish-Neutral |
| Gold | ~4160 | 4125 / 4100 | 4200 / 4230 | Neutral-Bearish |
| EUR/USD | ~1.1200 | 1.1150 / 1.1080 | 1.1250 / 1.1320 | Bearish |
| GBP/USD | 1.3240 | 1.3200 / 1.3150 | 1.3300 / 1.3350 | Bearish-Neutral |
| AUD/USD | 0.6935 | 0.6900 / 0.6880 | 0.6980 / 0.7000 | Bearish-Neutral |
| NZD/USD | ~0.5600 | 0.5580 / 0.5550 | 0.5650 / 0.5700 | Bearish |
| USD/CAD | ~1.4250 | 1.4200 / 1.4150 | 1.4300 / 1.4350 | Bullish |
| USD/JPY | 157.7 | 156.50 / 155.50 | 158.50 / 160.00 | Yield / BoJ Sensitive |
| USD/CHF | 0.8310 | 0.8270 / 0.8230 | 0.8350 / 0.8400 | Bullish |
| Bitcoin | ~86.7K | 84K / 82K | 88K / 90K | Bullish-Neutral |
| WTI | ~89.5 | 88 / 86 | 92 / 95 | Headline Sensitive |
| NAS100 | 30,808 | 30,500 / 30,200 | 31,000 / 31,250 | Bullish-Neutral |
| US30 | 51,177 | 50,800 / 50,500 | 51,600 / 52,000 | Neutral |
| S&P 500 | 7,723 | 7,650 / 7,600 | 7,780 / 7,850 | Bullish-Neutral |
📅 Economic Calendar This Week: October 5–9
MONDAY – October 5 🔴
🇺🇸 ISM Services PMI – 10:00 ET
Consensus is around 55 following August’s 55.4 reading.
Watch Employment, New Orders and Prices Paid for clues about growth, inflation and labour demand.
A strong services report could help the Dollar hold above 102, while weaker employment could reinforce Friday’s NFP slowdown.
TUESDAY – October 6
🇺🇸 US Trade Balance – 8:30 ET
August international trade data provides another update on US external demand and import conditions.
🏦 Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman – 10:45 ET
Markets will watch for any fresh monetary-policy comments following last week’s weak NFP report.
🇯🇵 BoJ Governor Ueda Speaks
USD/JPY traders should monitor Ueda’s comments for clues about future Japanese rate increases.
WEDNESDAY – October 7 🔥 FOMC MINUTES
🇺🇸 FOMC Meeting Minutes – 2:00 ET
This is the week’s main Federal Reserve event.
Traders will look for clues about:
- Support for additional tightening
- Concerns over inflation
- Employment risks
- Views on economic growth
- How divided policymakers were
The minutes could produce significant volatility in DXY, Gold, Treasury yields, stocks and Bitcoin.
THURSDAY – October 8
🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims – 8:30 ET
Consensus is approximately 195K following 197K previously.
The release becomes more important after September NFP showed sharply weaker job creation.
🏦 Fed Governor Christopher Waller Speaks
Any comments on the labour market or inflation could influence Treasury yields and Fed expectations.
FRIDAY – October 9 🔴
🇺🇸 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – 10:00 ET
September sentiment finished at 48.1.
Markets will also closely watch consumer inflation expectations.
September one-year inflation expectations stood at 4.6%, while longer-term expectations were around 3.4%.
A renewed increase could complicate the Fed’s outlook even after weak employment data.
TraderFactor SMC / ICT Weekly Trading Focus
- Mark Previous Week High and Low
- Mark Friday High and Low
- Identify Weekly Open
- Track PDH / PDL each day
- Mark Asian High and Low
- Watch Monday ISM Services volatility
- Watch Wednesday pre-FOMC liquidity
- Do not chase the first Minutes reaction
- Wait for liquidity sweep
- Look for displacement
- Confirm MSS / CHOCH
- Use FVG / Order Block retracement
- Target opposing liquidity
📊 Improve Your Market Structure Analysis
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Final Market Outlook This Week
This week’s calendar is lighter than last week’s NFP and PCE-heavy schedule, but that does not mean markets will be quiet.
Monday’s ISM Services report tests whether the US economy remains resilient despite weaker job creation.
Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes then become the central policy event.
Thursday gives traders another labour-market update through Jobless Claims.
Friday finishes the week with consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.
For the Dollar, the important question is whether safe-haven demand can continue overpowering softer Fed expectations.
For Gold, a sustainable recovery probably requires both lower yields and a weaker Dollar.
For Bitcoin and stocks, reduced Fed tightening expectations are supportive — but another inflation scare could quickly change that narrative.
For Oil, improving supply has reduced immediate pressure, although the Middle East remains capable of creating sudden volatility.
Last week belonged to NFP.
This week belongs to ISM Services and the Federal Reserve Minutes.
Current Weekly Market Bias
DXY: Bullish-neutral above 101.50
Gold: Neutral-bearish below $4,200
EUR/USD: Bearish below 1.1250
GBP/USD: Bearish-neutral below 1.3300
AUD/USD: Bearish-neutral below 0.6980
NZD/USD: Bearish below 0.5650
USD/CAD: Bullish above 1.4200
USD/JPY: Bullish-neutral but BoJ sensitive
USD/CHF: Bullish above 0.8270
Bitcoin: Bullish-neutral above $84K
WTI: Headline-sensitive below $92
NASDAQ 100: Bullish-neutral above 30,500
US30: Neutral
S&P 500: Bullish-neutral above 7,650
Market Outlook This Week FAQ
What is the biggest market event this week?
Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting Minutes are the week’s main Federal Reserve event, while Monday’s ISM Services PMI is the most important US economic activity release.
When are the FOMC Minutes released?
The minutes from the September 15–16 Federal Reserve meeting are scheduled for Wednesday, October 7 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Why is the Dollar still strong after weak NFP?
The Dollar is benefiting from safe-haven demand, geopolitical uncertainty, European fiscal concerns and relatively high US yields even as expectations for an immediate Fed rate hike decline.
What is the Gold price outlook this week?
Gold needs to reclaim and hold above $4,200–$4,230 to improve its short-term structure. Failure to do so keeps $4,125, $4,100 and lower sell-side liquidity in focus.
What happened to US jobs last week?
September Nonfarm Payrolls increased by only 29K while unemployment rose to 4.2%, significantly weakening expectations for an immediate Federal Reserve rate increase.
What should forex traders watch this week?
Watch ISM Services, FOMC Minutes, Jobless Claims, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Treasury yields, DXY and geopolitical developments affecting Oil and safe-haven demand.
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About the Author
Zahari Rangelov
Head of Business Development, TraderFactor
Zahari specializes in broker analysis, regulatory research, and trading education. He has over a decade of experience helping traders navigate the complex world of online brokers. His expertise spans technical and fundamental analysis, medium-term trading strategies, risk management, and trading psychology. A respected mentor and speaker, Zahari regularly leads webinars and seminars covering market sentiment, speculative instruments, and automated trading systems. His research-backed, practical approach has established him as a trusted authority within the global trading community.
Reviewed By:
Reviewed by Alex Kanyi, Head of Compliance at TraderFactor
“This report is for general information only. Trading involves significant risk. Seek independent advice before acting on any content.”
