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Bitcoin / Dollar intraday: the upside prevails as long as 39460 is support
39460 is our pivot point.
Our preference:
The upside prevails as long as 39460 is support.
Alternative scenario:
The downside breakout of 39460 would call for 38770 and 38360.
Comment:
The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the price is trading above both its 20 and 50 period moving average (respectively at 39830 and 39408).
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Market participants have factored in roughly 120 bps of rate cuts for this year, sparking a debate about when the ECB will initiate a reduction in the region’s policy rate. ECB President Lagarde hinted at a possible move sometime in the summer.
Even though inflation has exceeded the European Central Bank’s target, policymakers seem to favor a cautious stance. The weak economic fundamentals within the region restrict any potential strengthening of the European currency.
GBP/USD Rebounds with Positive Market Sentiment
Meanwhile, GBP/USD is rebounding from recent gains, trading near 1.2690 during early European hours on Wednesday. The optimistic market sentiment made it hard for the USD to gain strength early Tuesday, supporting GBP/USD’s upward push.
The AUD/USD pair is also trying to trend upwards, trading around 0.6580 on Wednesday following the release of improved preliminary PMI from Australia by Judo Bank and S&P Global. However, the movement of the greenback and signs of a slow economic recovery in China post-pandemic are expected to continue influencing the AUD and keeping its price action relatively muted.
AUDUSD Daily Chart
Market Outlook: Anticipation and Cautious Sentiment
Overall, the market anticipates the ECB’s decision on rate cuts, while the US Dollar remains stable. The GBP/USD and AUD/USD pairs show signs of recovery, but the overall sentiment remains cautious.
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Zahari Rangelov is an experienced professional Forex trader and trading mentor with knowledge in technical and fundamental analysis, medium-term trading strategies, risk management and diversification. He has been involved in the foreign exchange markets since 2005, when he opened his first live account in 2007. Currently, Zahari is the Head of Sales & Business Development at TraderFactor's London branch. He provides lectures during webinars and seminars for traders on topics such as; Psychology of market participants’ moods, Investments & speculation with different financial instruments and Automated Expert Advisors & signal providers. Zahari’s success lies in his application of research-backed techniques and practices that have helped him become a successful forex trader, a mentor to many traders, and a respected authority figure within the trading community.
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