Investors will be closely watching the April U.S consumer price index reading

• The dollar hovered near a two-decade high against major peers today in the Asian session
• Reading on inflation will provide a clue on how aggressive the Fed will be in tightening monetary policy
• The yen continued to get some respite from a pause in the rise in benchmark U.S Treasury yields

Forex market 

The dollar hovered near a two-decade high against major peers today, ahead of a key reading on inflation that should provide clues on how aggressive the Federal Reserve will be in tightening monetary policy. The dollar index, which measures the currency versus six rivals, slipped slightly to 103.81 but is still not far from the high of 104.49 reached at the start of the week for the first time since December 2002. 

The euro rose a touch to $1.05405 but has mostly traded sideways since plumbing a more than five-year low at $1.04695 at the end of last month. The yen continued to get some respite from a pause in the recent relentless rise in benchmark U.S. Treasury yields, trading little changed at 130.36 per dollar, after dipping to a more than the two-decade low of 131.35 on Monday. 

Economic Calendar

Investors will be closely watching the April U.S consumer price index reading later today for any sign’s inflation may be starting to cool, with expectations calling for an 8.1% annual increase compared with an 8.5% rise recorded in March. After the Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 50 basis points last week, the largest hike in 22 years, investors have been attempting to assess how aggressive the central bank will be. 

Markets are priced for another hike of at least 50 basis points at the central bank's June meeting. We remain of the view that the broad U.S dollar rise will continue as the Fed executes its 'super-tightening. Look for ongoing demand for (the dollar index) on dips, with 104 already being probed and still potential for a run towards 107 multi-weeks. 

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The greenback has climbed nearly 9% this year amid an increasingly hawkish Fed, as inflation burned hotter than policymakers had expected. Commonwealth Bank of Australia also sees the risk tilted to further gains from here. The USD's reaction to the CPI will be asymmetrical in our view. A positive surprise will encourage markets to increase pricing for a 75-basis point increase in the Funds rate later in the year and support the USD.

Euro-EUR

The single currency steadied despite the dollar hovering near a two-decade high against major peers today. The euro rose a touch to $1.05405 but has mostly traded sideways since plumbing a more than five-year low at $1.04695 at the end of last month. The greenback has climbed nearly 9% this year amid an increasingly hawkish Fed. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.0469 and a high of 1.0563 before closing the day around 1.0497 in the New York session.

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Japanese Yen-JPY

The Japanese Yen continued to get some respite from a pause in the recent relentless rise in benchmark U.S Treasury yields after dipping to a more than the two-decade low of 131.35 on Monday. The Bank of Japan has no plan to allow long-term interest rates to move more widely around its 0% target to stem sharp falls in the yen. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 128.32 and a high of 131.23 before closing the day around 130.82 in the U.S session.

British Pound-GBP

The British Pound has shown itself to be weak yet again during yesterday’s trading session. Britain is on course to enter a technical recession in the second half of this year and faces a big hit to living standards from surging prices, an economic think-tank said today. The NIESR forecast gross domestic product will fall by 0.2% in the third quarter. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2409 and a high of 1.2568 before closing the day at 1.2455 in the New York session.

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Canadian Dollar-CAD

The Canadian Dollar weakened to its lowest level in 18 months against its U.S counterpart yesterday as oil prices fell and recent volatility in global equity markets continued. Canada is a major producer of commodities, including oil, so the loonie tends to be sensitive to the outlook for the global economy. U.S. crude prices settled 3.2% lower. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2788 and a high of 1.2877 before closing the day at 1.2805 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar-AUD

The Australian Dollar tried to nudge higher as Chinese CPI came in at 2.1% year-over-year to the end of April against 1.8% forecast and March’s print of 1.5%. PPI came in at 8.0%, instead of 7.8% expected and 8.3% previously. This presents a conundrum for policymakers that are trying to stimulate growth while seeking to contain price pressures. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7358 and a high of 0.7416 before closing the day at 0.7410 in the New York session.

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Euro-Yen EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 1.25%.

Sterling-Yen GBP/JPY

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 1.16%.

Aussie-Yen AUD/JPY

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 76 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 1.45%.

Euro-Sterling EUR/GBP

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 53 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has gained 0.12%.

Sterling-Swiss GBP/CHF

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.42%.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

What’s Hot in Forex, Commodities and Indices

Join Andrew Lockwood, head coach and mentor at ForexSignals.com, for a 30-minute live webinar to help you plan your trades for the week. Find out what trading opportunities Andrew's scouting across Forex, Commodities and Indices markets as we head into the weekend.

Time is running out to join this week's Live Market Update, with guest analyst Andrew Lockwood of ForexSignals.

Today's webinar will cover:

• Live updates brought to you by an experienced market expert
• Find out what assets Andrew is watching from Indices, Forex, Commodities, and Futures heading into the weekend
• Ask your trade and market-related questions at the end of the session live Q&A

Don't miss out. Sign up and secure your place now!

When is it? Wednesday 11th May 2022 | 7 PM AEST (10 AM BST)

How long is it? 30 minutes

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Gold fell and bitcoin plunged to its lowest level since July 2021

 US stock market: Stock indexes around the world fell sharply, oil prices sank about 6% and the dollar finished just off a 20-year high as investors fled risk and sought safe havens due to worries about inflation and slower global economic growth. 

Oil prices tumbled as coronavirus lockdowns in China, the top oil importer, fed worries about energy demand. Gold fell and bitcoin plunged to its lowest level since July 2021. U.S. Treasury yields eased after the benchmark 10-year note hit 3-1/2 year highs as traders braced for consumer price data and the auction of $103 billion in U.S government debt this week. 

Economic Calendar

U.S stocks extended Friday's bruising sell-off as investors rushed to protect themselves against the prospect of a weakening economy. Central banks in the United States, Britain and Australia raised interest rates last week, and investors girded for more tightening as policymakers fight soaring inflation. 

Both the S&P and NASDAQ on Friday posted their fifth straight week of declines, their longest losing streaks in roughly a decade.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.99% to hit a new 52-week low. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were 3M Company, which rose 1.91% or 2.85 points to trade at 152.38 at the close. Meanwhile, Walmart Inc. added 1.17% or 1.75 points to end at 151.31 and Amgen Inc. was up 1.13% or 2.67 points to 239.17 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Boeing Co, which fell 10.47% or 15.59 points to trade at 133.31 at the close. Chevron Corp declined 6.70% or 11.44 points to end at 159.25 and Visa Inc Class A was down 4.84% or 9.82 points to 193.00.

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NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index fell 4.29%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Hemisphere Media Group Inc. which rose 78.78% to 6.74, Blue Water Vaccines Inc. which was up 44.15% to settle at 5.42 and Points International Ltd which gained 42.46% to close at 24.46. The worst performers were Akanda Corp which was down 74.30% to 2.29 in late trade, Renovare Environmental Inc. which lost 40.76% to settle at 0.18 and TherapeuticsMD Inc. which was down 36.86% to 4.84 at the close.

Oil price - Crude Oil market, Brent Oil market

Oil prices dropped more than 1% today, extending the previous day's steep declines as coronavirus lockdowns in top oil importer China, a strong dollar and growing recession risks fed worries about the outlook for global demand. U.S West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.07, or 1%, to $102.02 a barrel after hitting an intraday low of $100.44. 

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The falls reflected trends in global financial markets, as investors shed riskier assets on worries about interest rate rises and the resulting impact on economic growth. The dollar held near 20-year highs, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. China's COVID situation, rising rates and growing recession risks are not helping risk assets. 

The latest data showed China's export growth had slowed to single digits, the weakest in almost two years, as the country extended lockdowns to curb the spread of COVID-19. Oil prices were boosted last week after the European Commission proposed a phased embargo on Russian oil.

Precious and Base Metals - Gold price, Silver price, Palladium price

Gold was up today morning in Asia over the weakening dollar. Investors now await inflation data. Gold futures were up 0.24% to $1,863.89. The dollar, which normally moves inversely to gold, inched down on Tuesday morning. The tightened policy to fight inflation from the U.S Federal Reserve has fueled five weeks of gains for the dollar. 

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The Fed raised its first half-point rate hike, while the Bank of England also raised its interest rate to 1% as it handed down its policy decision on Thursday, the highest since 2009. The prospect of aggressive interest rate hikes pushed the U.S. 10-year Treasuries to climb as high as 104.19 overnight, a 20-year peak.

As investors expect additional increases of the same magnitude from the Fed, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday that he sees no 75-bps rate hike, as there are some signs of inflation cooling. In the Asia Pacific, trade data from China yesterday showed that the exports in April grew 3.9% year on year, the slowest pace since June of 2020. 

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The lockdown measures for COVID-19 have caused damage to the trade. Now investors await U.S. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, as well as the U.S. Producer Price Index and initial jobless claims, which are due on Thursday. In other precious metals, silver jumped 0.99%, platinum gained 0.58% while palladium rose 2.18%. 

Copper prices fell to their lowest in almost eight months on Monday, as tightening lockdowns in China stoked worries about demand, with a stronger dollar further weighing on the market. Investors are awaiting China’s April trade data due later in the session to gauge the scope of disruptions from covid-19 lockdowns. Shanghai authorities were tightening the city-wide covid lockdown they imposed more than a month ago, prolonging into late May an ordeal that China’s capital Beijing was desperate to avoid by turning mass testing into an almost daily routine.

Traditional Agricultures - Corn futures, Wheat futures,  Soybean futures

Wheat remained underpinned by dry conditions in the U.S and French growing belts, reinforcing global supply concerns. Soybean futures fell yesterday to five-week lows as warmer U.S weather expedited planting progress, deflating fears of added soybean acres and further cuts to corn plantings.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Investor morale in the eurozone fell in May to its lowest level since June 2020

• The Dollar has risen for five straight weeks as U.S Treasury yields have climbed
• The British Pound has been in free fall against the US Dollar for three weeks
• The Australian Dollar has fallen again yesterday to show signs of weakness

Forex market 

The U.S dollar reached a new 20-year high yesterday as risk-off sentiment stemming in part from concerns over the Federal Reserve’s ability to combat high inflation boosted the greenback’s safe-haven appeal. The dollar has risen for five straight weeks as U.S Treasury yields have climbed on expectations the Fed will be aggressive in attempting to tamp down inflation. 

Yesterday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the U.S central bank may not get as much aid from easing supply chains as it is hoping for in helping to cool inflation. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he already sees signs of peaking supply pressures and that should give the Fed room to hike at half-percentage-point interest rate increments for the next two to three policy meetings, but nothing bigger. 

Economic Calendar

Also contributing to the defensive tone was the ongoing war in Ukraine and concerns about rising COVID-19 cases in China. Right now, it seems like you have a trifecta of drivers here that are going to keep providing the dollar with solid footing. There’s this belief that you are not going to see any of the major risk factors resolved, definitely not this week, and that is probably going to make it complicated for ending the dollar’s reign. 

The Fed last week raised rates by 50 basis points as it attempts to lower inflation without tilting the economy into a recession, while a solid jobs report on Friday cemented expectations for more rate hikes. Investors will get a look at more inflation readings later this week in the form of the consumer price and producer price indexes. 

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Yields on most U.S Treasury notes pared early gains to trade lower yesterday as bargain-hunters stepped in after the benchmark 10-year yield hit fresh 3-1/2-year highs of 3.203% as inflation fears continued to roil markets. Markets are completely pricing in a rate hike of at least 50 basis points by the Fed at its June meeting. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.24% versus the greenback at 130.28 per dollar, while the Sterling was last trading at $1.2343, up 0.05% on the day. In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin last fell 14.93% to $30,679.52 after dropping to $30,321, its lowest since July 21, 2021.

Euro-EUR

The single currency fell as investor morale in the eurozone fell in May to its lowest level since June 2020, a survey showed, dropping for the third month in a row as the impact of the war in Ukraine on Europe's largest economy becomes increasingly clear. Sentix's index for the eurozone fell to -22.6 in May from -18 in April. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.0469 and a high of 1.0563 before closing the day around 1.0497 in the New York session.

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Japanese Yen-JPY

The Japanese Yen fell as risk-off sentiment stemming in part from concerns over the Federal Reserve’s ability to combat high inflation boosted the greenback’s safe-haven appeal. The dollar has risen for five straight weeks as U.S Treasury yields have climbed on expectations the Fed will be aggressive in attempting to tamp down inflation. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 128.32 and a high of 131.23 before closing the day around 130.82 in the U.S session.

British Pound-GBP

The British Pound has been in free fall against the US Dollar for three weeks with GBP/USD now down more than 9% year-to-date. The sell-off is now approaching areas of technical interest for possible downside exhaustion while the broader threat remains lower. The BOE's gloomy growth outlook caused the British pound to suffer heavy losses. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.2409 and a high of 1.2568 before closing the day at 1.2455 in the New York session.

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Canadian Dollar-CAD

The Canadian Dollar fell today in the Asian trading session as falling commodity prices dragged it lower today, although the dollar was steady against most other majors while bitcoin continued to tumble. Lower oil prices also hurt the Canadian dollar, which touched C$1.3037 per dollar, its weakest since November 2020. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2788 and a high of 1.2877 before closing the day at 1.2805 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar-AUD

The Australian Dollar has fallen again during the trading session yesterday to threaten and even pierced the 0.70 level to the downside. That being said, the market still sees a lot of action in this area. The US dollar continues to strengthen against almost everything, but it is also worth noting that this is a major round figure and an area where we have seen a lot of support previously. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7358 and a high of 0.7416 before closing the day at 0.7410 in the New York session.

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Euro-Yen EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 61 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 1.25%.

Sterling-Yen GBP/JPY

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 1.16%.

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Aussie-Yen AUD/JPY

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 76 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 1.45%.

Euro-Sterling EUR/GBP

This cross is currently trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 53 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has gained 0.12%.

Sterling-Swiss GBP/CHF

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.42%.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

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Cryptocurrency Essentials webinar series 05.05.2022

What is a cross-blockchain transfer? What is the virtual Metaverse built on the Ethereum blockchain? Join the Cryptocurrency Essentials webinar this week, to learn about Polkadot (DOT) and Sandbox (SAND). Hosted by our financial educational partner, the Corellian Academy Learn everything you need to know to make your mark in the cryptocurrency market.

Topics to be covered this week:

• An up-to-date overview of Polkadot (DOT) its growing interest, and value
• Digital currencies Corellian is focusing on this week, with key chart levels, and technical analysis
• Learn how to adapt your trading strategy to trail a stop loss
• A preview of the emerging cryptocurrency, Sandbox (SAND) and the reasons why Corellian is watching it
• Real-time market analysis, with a focus on the upcoming week
• Live Q&A with the cryptocurrency experts at Corellian

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When is it? Thursday 5th May 2022 | 7 PM AEST (10 AM BST)

How long is it? 40 minutes

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This presentation is for information and learning purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed as an invitation to pursue investment services, an invitation to enter into a transaction and/or investment advice, or a recommendation.