Russian ruble plunged to a record low after Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine

• The U.S. dollar jumped to its highest level in nearly two years in yesterday’s trading session
• Russian forces invaded Ukraine in an assault by land, sea and air
• U.S markets were in the throes of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic

The U.S. dollar jumped to its highest level in nearly two years and the Russian rouble plunged to a record low on Thursday after Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine, as investors fled risk assets and moved toward safe-haven assets. 

Russian forces invaded Ukraine in an assault by land, sea, and air, in the biggest attack on a European country since World War Two. The dollar index rose 0.869% and was on pace for its biggest daily percentage gain since March 2020, when the U.S, markets were in the throes of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The greenback reached a high of 97.740 against a basket of major currencies, its highest since June 30, 2020. The dollar weakened slightly as U.S President Joe Biden announced new sanctions against Russia, including banks. We have a big geopolitical development that a lot of people haven’t seen before in their lives; it’s a classic risk-off move. 

Economic Calendar

There is a push and pull over which currency is the biggest safe haven at the moment. Against other safe-havens, the dollar rose 0.77% against the Swiss franc while the Japanese yen weakened 0.54% versus the greenback at 115.61 per dollar. The greenback has been subdued recently as tensions in Ukraine have increased and fueled speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve may be less aggressive in tightening policy at its March meeting. 

Expectations for at least a 50-basis-point interest rate hike have dropped to 7.5% from around 34% a day ago. Fed policymakers on Thursday acknowledged the central bank's tightening plans were now jousting with the possibility of war and its impact on oil prices. The Australian and New Zealand dollars were holding their ground today as the Russian invasion of Ukraine caused major mood swings in markets, but also boosted prices for resources Australia is rich in.

Wall Street is gauging the further effect of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on asset prices

Euro

The single currency was down 0.95% as the U.S dollar jumped to its highest level in nearly two years and the Russian rouble plunged to a record low yesterday after Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine, as investors fled risk assets and moved toward safe-haven assets. Russian forces invaded Ukraine in an assault by land, sea, and air. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1105 and a high of 1.1309 before closing the day around 1.1190 in the New York session.

Yen

The Japanese Yen is likely to continue to face headwinds as Japan’s central bank maintains a more dovish stance than peers, even after the currency briefly hit three-week highs on Thursday on safe-haven buying. The Bank of Japan is more dovish than peers as the country faces more modest growth and inflation, while the U.S Fed is expected to aggressively hike rates. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 114.38 and a high of 115.67 before closing the day around 115.51 in the U.S session.

British Pound

The British Pound fell against the dollar but stood its ground versus the euro as investors rushed into safe-haven assets after Russia launched an all-out invasion of Ukraine by land, air, and sea. Ukraine’s President said Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin’s aim was to destroy his state, while U.S President and other leaders promised tough new sanctions in response. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3270 and a high of 1.3547 before closing the day at 1.3375 in the New York session.

Markets seemed to take cheer from news of talks between the U.S. and Russia about Ukraine

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened to its lowest level since December against its U.S counterpart yesterday as Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered a flight to safety in global financial markets. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, climbed 7.60% to $99.10 a barrel as the invasion added to concerns about disruptions to the global energy supply. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2725 and a high of 1.2875 before closing the day at 1.2812 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar holding its ground today as the Russian invasion of Ukraine caused major mood swings in markets, but also boosted prices for resources Australia is rich in. The Aussie has been indirectly supported this week by bumper dividend payments from miners which are converted from U.S. dollars to Aussie. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7169 and a high of 0.7228 before closing the day at 0.7171 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.54%.

The dollar bounced on Thursday after a Russian news report of mortar fire in eastern Ukraine

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.80%.

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.54%.

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 and lies above the neutral region. Overall, the pair has gained 0.25%.

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.42%.

Investors are lost in the fog of war and that’s why we are seeing this volatility

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Elliot Waves trading idea for SP500 DowJones and Nasdaq

Hello traders and investors. I am Radi Valov, a professional trader. I am trading the financial markets since 2006 and I am here to help. I have extensive experience as an individual professional trader and own a company for market analysis and capital management. I prefer medium and long-term trading strategies and use my own trading systems based mainly on Elliott Wave Theory and Behavioral Finance.

It is a fascinating time to be in the financial markets right now. The financial markets are not only Stocks, Forex, CFDs, Cryptocurrencies, and Commodities.  It is a historical moment for all traders and investors who understand and trade based on Elliott Waves' analysis. Right now the financial markets are acting like a behavioral book in finance. Prepare to be once again against the crowd.

I will start my Elliott Waves analysis with the Daily trading chart on SP500.

Despite the start of a small war, missiles, tanks, and so on and so forth. The market is in the right place to end wave 4. Despite the heated forecasts for a stock market crash, head and shoulders formation, economic stagflation, and similar bearish scenarios. I believe that tonight the main bottom is in place. Two months were enough to radically reverse the market sentiment. There are not many bulls on the market at the moment, I no longer see almost any forecasts for 5000+ for S&P500. It is a great moment for traders and investors whose trading strategies are based on the Elliott Waves technical analysis.

The correction for Wave 4 already looks like a completed zigzag (ABC). My expectations were for the end of the correction in the area around 4150, but the market made a slightly deeper move. Confirmation that the correction is complete we will have a break of 4350 for the SP500, 33900 for the Dow Jones, and first and then 4590 SP500 and 35850 for Dow Jones.

The alternative scenario allows the correction to develop as a double zigzag and see another last bottom for the Nasdaq and a double bottom for the SP500. BUT sometimes these last bottoms or peaks are not fully realized at all. (See my analysis of silver from 4 weeks ago)

Whether we see another recent down move or not my expectations in the medium term to see new historic highs for the SP500 and the Dow Jones, Nasdaq will make a deep come back without a new high.

Elliott waves trading signal for Copper

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Wall Street is gauging the further effect of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on asset prices

As the S&P 500 hovers near correction territory, Wall Street is gauging the further effect of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on asset prices, with some strategists warning investors to keep their cool and focus on longer-term market trends. 

Worries over geopolitical strife and a more hawkish Fed have combined to take the S&P 500 down nearly 10% from an all-time high hit in early January. The benchmark index was recently off around 0.7% on Tuesday after President Joe Biden announced new sanctions against Russia for what he called the beginning of an invasion of Ukraine. 

Still, some analysts maintained the longer-term impact of the geopolitical strife could be fleeting and urged investors not to overreact to recent market moves. How the worsening confrontation in Eastern Europe could affect the Fed’s actions has been a topic of debate. 

Economic Calendar

While some have worried that rising oil prices, which stand around their highest level since 2014, could push up inflation and force the central bank to become even more aggressive.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.42% to hit a new 6-months low. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were McDonald’s Corporation, which unchanged 0% or 0 points to trade at 250.60 at the close. Meanwhile, Amgen Inc. unchanged 0% or 0 points to end at 220.77 and The Travelers Companies Inc. was unchanged 0% or 0 points to 170.63 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Home Depot Inc., which unchanged 0% or 0 points to trade at 346.87 at the close. Boeing Co unchanged 0% or 0 points to end at 209.03 and Nike Inc. was 0% or 0 points to 142.95.

Elliot waves trading idea for SP500 and the Dow Jones

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index lost 1.23%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Imperial Petroleum Inc. which was unchanged 0% to 0.49, China Natural Resources Inc. which was unchanged 0% to settle at 0.6103 and Paltalk Inc. which was unchanged 0% to close at 3.1400. The worst performers were Color Star Technology Co Ltd which was unchanged 0% to 0.5158 in late trade, Dogness International Corp Class A which was unchanged 0% to settle at 4.2700, and Zosano Pharma Corp which was unchanged 0% to 0.2159 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices stabilized today after hitting seven-year highs in the last session as it became clear the first wave of the U.S and European sanctions on Russia for sending troops into eastern Ukraine would not disrupt oil supplies. At the same time, the potential return of more Iranian crude to the market, with Tehran and world powers close to reviving a nuclear agreement, also kept a lid on prices. U.S crude futures were up 0.07%, to $91.97 a barrel, after hitting $96 yesterday. 

The NATO allies are holding back some punitive measures as bargaining chips, which also means the door to diplomacy is still open. The Iran nuclear deal remains a possibility until it is not. The two factors will leave crude range-bound and hold Brent back from $100 for the time being. Prices jumped on worries that western sanctions on Russia for sending troops into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine could hit energy supplies, but the United States made it clear there would be no impact on energy exports.

Precious and Base Metals

Gold hit its highest in nearly nine months yesterday before pulling back as investors waiting for developments in the Ukraine crisis repositioned near the pivotal $1,900 an ounce mark. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,902.71 per ounce, having hit its highest since June 1 at $1,913.89. U.S gold futures settled 0.4% higher at $1,907.40. 

Elliott waves signal for Gold update

Wall Street's main indexes slumped as the prospect of harsh Western sanctions against Russia over its conflict with Ukraine kept investors on edge, while oil prices hit their highest level since 2014. The Biden administration could deprive Russia of a vast swath of low- and high-tech U.S. and foreign-made goods, people familiar with the matter told Reuters, if it further invades Ukraine. It's not surprising to see gold well supported in this environment given its traditional safe-haven play.

However, inflationary pressures have been a key driver of gold's performance over the last several weeks in its sideways to higher trend, and interest rate increases may not overshadow this trend. 

Elliott waves signal for Silver

Gold is considered a hedge against inflation and political risks. But interest rate hikes, especially by the Federal Reserve, tend to dim the appeal of bullion, which pays no interest. Analysts attributed gold's slight pullback to some profit-taking. Meanwhile, spot silver was up 1.1% at $24.19 an ounce after touching its highest in a month at $24.35. Palladium fell 0.8% to $2,368.84, having earlier reached its highest since Jan. 31 at $2,433. Platinum rose 0.1%to $1,075.09. 

Given the increased tensions with (key producer) Russia, it would stand to reason that there are concerns about the supply chain in the platinum group metals.

Elliott waves trading signal for Copper

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat futures surged six percent in the steepest daily jump in 3-1/2 years while corn rallied three percent on worries that an escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine could disrupt grain flows from the key Black Sea export region. Soybeans climbed to a nine-month peak as soaring energy markets lifted soybean oil futures by more than four percent. Continuing concern about a South American crop shortfall due to poor weather added support. This is a supply-led market and the supplies are trapped whether it’s because of Russia-Ukraine or because of the drought.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partner's prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The game is still in the air, and the markets know it

• The U.S dollar dipped slightly against a basket of major currencies yesterday
• Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized two breakaway regions in the country
• The Kremlin said it remained open to diplomacy with the United States and other countries
• U.S President Joe Biden announced the first wave of sanctions against Russia

The U.S dollar dipped slightly against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday amid choppy trade spurred by developments in Ukraine after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized two breakaway regions in the country and ordered troops to the area. 

The Kremlin said it remained open to diplomacy with the United States and other countries as it faced actions from a slew of countries. Britain published a list of sanctions and Germany froze the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea gas pipeline project, which would have significantly increased the flow of Russian gas.

The dollar weakened somewhat as U.S. President Joe Biden announced the first wave of sanctions against Russia while saying he hoped diplomacy was still available. The euro rose versus the greenback after earlier touching its lowest level since Feb. 14, buoyed in part by the hope for talks and economic data that showed business morale in Germany improved in February across all sectors to its highest since August. The dollar index fell 0.1%, with the euro up 0.2% to $1.1333. The greenback swung between gains of as much as 0.1% and a decline of 0.35% on the day. 

Economic Calendar

Putin is running the show here, but the markets are not responding as if they are really fearful that what happened is an irredeemable escalation that is going to end up with the kind of sanctions that wreck economies, or at least will wreck the global recovery. The game is still in the air, and the markets know it; they don’t see it as a great change in the situation. Russia's rouble strengthened 2.07% versus the dollar at 78.76 after weakening to 80.9275 per greenback, a level last seen in November 2020. Sterling was last trading at $1.359, down 0.06% on the day. The dollar earlier gained some ground after data from IHS Markit showed U.S. business activity in February regained speed as the drag from a surge in COVID-19 cases during the winter ebbed Other data, however, showed U.S. consumer confidence fell for a second straight month in February. 

Elliott waves trading signal for Copper

After initially strengthening against the dollar, safe havens such as the Swiss franc and Japanese yen gave back gains against the greenback. The dollar was up 0.6% against the Swiss franc while the yen weakened 0.29%. The New Zealand dollar jumped to five-week highs on Wednesday as the country's central bank hiked rates as expected and signaled a more aggressive path forward than even the most hawkish investor had wagered. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised rates 25 basis points to 1.0% but revealed it came close to moving by 50 basis points to head off a further pickup in inflation expectations.

Euro

The single currency one-month volatility level jumped yesterday to its highest in 15 months, as the single currency was hit by rising risk aversion amid a gas price surge and escalation of tensions in Ukraine. Russian President ordered troops to two breakaway regions in Ukraine, sending the euro one-month volatility to its highest level since Nov 2020. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1343 and a high of 1.1394 before closing the day around 1.1371 in the New York session.

Yen

The Japanese Yen steadied amid choppy trade spurred by developments in Ukraine after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized two breakaway regions in the country and ordered troops to the area. The Kremlin said it remained open to diplomacy with the United States and other countries as it faced actions from a slew of countries. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 115.33 and a high of 115.77 before closing the day around 115.47 in the U.S session.

Elliott waves forex trading idea for EUR/USD GBP/USD and AUD/USD

British Pound

The British Pound fell to a six-day low against the dollar and euro yesterday with investors cautious on the British currency amid the Russia-West stand-off over Ukraine. Also weighing on the pound, BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden yesterday signaled more monetary tightening, but said he now sees a "modest" rate hike over the coming months. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3529 and a high of 1.3599 before closing the day at 1.3583 in the New York session.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar was little changed against its U.S counterpart yesterday as investors weighed the economic impact of Russia-Ukraine tensions, and the price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, gave back some of its earlier gains. The Canadian dollar has largely been at the mercy of oil markets yesterday. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2661 and a high of 1.2723 before closing the day at 1.2684 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar was on the rise as global markets steadied in the wake of Russia's latest moves in Ukraine. It stumbled a little when local data showed annual wage growth only edged up to 2.3% in the December quarter when bulls had hoped for 2.4% or more. Futures responded by slightly lengthening the odds on a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike as early as June. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7169 and a high of 0.7228 before closing the day at 0.7171 in the New York session.

Elliot waves trading idea for SP500 and the Dow Jones

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.03%.

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 0.25%.

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.55%.

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 and lies above the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.22%.

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.04%.

Elliott waves signal for Gold update

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partners prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Elliott waves trading signal for Copper

Hello traders and investors. Today I want to show you my market forecast for a very important commodity - Copper. Naturally, this commodity is closely linked to the economic cycle and trade, and for this reason, it is usually correlated with the stock market as a whole. First of all, I will start with the monthly trading chart. I consider the rise from the middle of the last century until today as a still unfinished impulse of the Grand Cycle.

At the moment, according to my wave counting, we are developing the fifth last wave of this impulse.

On the daily trend chart, I am considering the rise from March 2020 until May 2021 as a completed impulse for wave 3 and now a correction for wave 4 is being developed. This correction is most likely a symmetrical triangle, which offers a very good opportunity to plan a trading strategy with a high risk/return ratio. According to this analysis, the last E wave of the triangle is most likely to develop now, the potential target for the end of this wave is the area around 427-430. The critical point for the whole analysis is the bottom of wave C.- 411

Elliott waves signal for Gold update

The alternative analysis (with blue in the graph) allows the momentum from March 2020 to May 2021 to be wave (1) of (V). According to this scenario, the symmetrical triangle will be considered as wave B or X, followed by a serious failure. The scenario can be considered possible only after the break of wave C from the symmetric triangle.

Elliott waves forex trading idea for EUR/USD GBP/USD and AUD/USD

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partners prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Elliott waves signal for Gold update

 This is a short update of my previous Elliott waves trading signal for Gold

On a monthly chart, there is nothing new. But with the weekly close from yesterday, there is a possibility that wave (e)  has ended with the bottom at 1780.

Confirmation of the end of wave 4 and the beginning of a new ascending cycle is a break in the top of wave (d) of the triangle - 1877. Currently, the critical point for this bullish scenario is the bottom of January 28, 1780. If we are at the beginning of the new upward phase, the potential here is quite serious and currently offers a good risk/return ratio.

Elliott waves signal for Silver

Elliott waves signals for S&P500

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partners prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.