The United States said Russia has massed enough troops near Ukraine to launch a major invasion

• A Russian attack could begin any day and would likely start with an air assault
• The dollar had been trading mostly sideways when the U.S warning hit markets
• The Canadian dollar weakened as the potential for an imminent Russian attack triggered a sell-off

The dollar rose along with other safe-haven assets on Friday after the United States said Russia has massed enough troops near Ukraine to launch a major invasion. 

A Russian attack could begin any day and would likely start with an air assault, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told a media briefing. The dollar had been trading mostly sideways when the U.S. warning hit markets. The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.258%.

Economic Calendar

U.S crude futures jumped more than 5% to $94.66 a barrel, the highest since 2014, while gold rose more than 2% to a near two-month high at one point. The dollar's rise was due to Sullivan's comments, as well as reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin had decided to invade Ukraine, which the White House later disputed. That move up, along with moves in other safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries and the Japanese yen, indicates the market is growing more and more concerned about the prospect of an invasion. 

The Japanese yen strengthened 0.63% versus the greenback at 115.29 per dollar, while the Canadian dollar weakened as the potential for an imminent Russian attack triggered a sell-off in risk-sensitive assets. Russia's currency, already lower for the day, fell further on the news. 

The rouble was last down 2.73% versus the greenback at 77.00 per dollar. Washington urged all U.S. citizens to leave the country within 48 hours. Other countries, including Britain, Japan, Latvia, Norway, and the Netherlands told their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately. 

The euro, meanwhile, weakened as markets processed the news, and was set for a weekly decline after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said in an interview that raising rates now would not bring down record eurozone inflation but only hurt the economy. 

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The greenback had struggled to pick a direction earlier in the day as investors digested the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for February. That report found that U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in more than a decade in early February amid expectations that inflation would continue to rise in the near term.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index edging up. The market's lack of clarity as to how interest rate hikes might progress has contributed to frenzied sessions this week as the dollar remains undecided on the future. I tend to think we consolidate in the short term here and am still biased toward euro downside, dollar upside against most currencies. Wall Street tumbled and safe-havens such as U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar rallied after Washington said Russia has massed enough troops near Ukraine to launch a major invasion.

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Euro

The single currency fell against the U.S Dollar as traders on edge about the prospect of war in Europe and unsettled by soaring inflation. The risk of war in Ukraine pushed the euro down on Friday and it was nursing losses well below last week's top of $1.1495. Russia could invade Ukraine at any time and might create a surprise pretext for an attack. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1413 and a high of 1.1461 before closing the day around 1.1441 in the New York session.

Yen

The Japanese Yen gained after the U.S said Russia has massed enough troops near Ukraine to launch a major invasion. A Russian attack could begin any day and would likely start with an air assault, White House national security adviser Jake told a media briefing. The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.258%. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 114.89 and a high of 115.36 before closing the day around 115.09 in the U.S session.

British Pound

The British Pound held its ground on Friday and posted a second consecutive weekly gain as expectations of rising interest rates propped up the currency. The pound’s strength against the dollar was in stark contrast to the greenback’s other major rivals, which weakened in early trading amid rising expectations of U.S interest rate increases in the coming weeks. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3488 and a high of 1.3549 before closing the day at 1.3534 in the New York session.

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Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened, giving back some of this week's gains, as the potential for an imminent Russian attack on Ukraine triggered a selloff in risk-sensitive assets. Wall Street tumbled and safe-havens such as U.S Treasuries and the U.S dollar rallied after Washington said Russia has massed enough troops near Ukraine to launch a major invasion. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2655 and a high of 1.2754 before closing the day at 1.2664 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar left drifting as geopolitical concerns over Ukraine offset further gains in global commodity prices as inflation becomes more broad-based. The Aussie was also under pressure given the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was showing little urgency to tighten, while the market was rife with speculation the U.S Federal Reserve could hike by 50 basis points next month. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7169 and a high of 0.7228 before closing the day at 0.7171 in the New York session.

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​Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.15%.

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.01%.

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.63%.

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 and lies above the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.17%.

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.14%.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partners prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

U.S crude inventories dropped by nearly 5 million barrels and fuel demand rose to an all-time high

Wall Street jumped on Wednesday, closing sharply higher as mega-cap growth stocks powered up thanks to a pause in rising interest rates, and upbeat earnings reports also encouraged investors to buy. 

The benchmark 10-year U.S Treasury yield slipped from multi-year highs hit in the previous session, helping steady sentiment across global markets and boosting demand for growth stocks. Meta Platforms surged more than 5%, ending four sessions of deep declines that saw it lose almost a third of its value. 

The biggest boosts to the S&P 500 came from Nvidia, up 2.2%, and Microsoft, up 6.4%. All 11 S&P 500 sector indexes rose, led by a 2.45% jump in real estate. The bond market basically is saying there's a cap or a limit to how much the Fed is likely to raise rates, and that is very positive for stocks in general, and especially for growth stocks that tend to be valued higher. Hit by worries about rising interest, the tech-heavy NASDAQ has fallen more than 7% so far this year after gaining nearly 21% in 2021. The S&P 500 is down about 4% year to date.

Economic Calendar

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.86%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Walt Disney Company, which rose 3.33% or 4.75 points to trade at 147.23 at the close. Meanwhile, Intel Corporation added 2.25% or 1.10 points to end at 49.91 and Microsoft Corporation was up 2.18% or 6.65 points to 311.21 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Amgen Inc., which fell 1.58% or 3.82 points to trade at 237.19 at the close. Coca-Cola Co declined 1.55% or 0.96 points to end at 61.04 and Merck & Company Inc. was down 0.49% or 0.38 points to 76.53.

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NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index added 2.08%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were US Ecology Inc. which rose 67.73% to 47.25, Tritium Dcfc Ltd which was up 64.57% to settle at 15.70 and Gracell Biotechnologies Inc. which gained 34.10% to close at 4.09. The worst performers were Zosano Pharma Corp which was down 48.56% to 0.2431 in late trade, QuinStreet Inc. which lost 26.85% to settle at 11.39 and Society Pass Inc. which was down 23.72% to 3.57 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices rallied yesterday after U.S crude inventories dropped by nearly 5 million barrels and fuel demand rose to an all-time high, underscoring the market's ongoing tightness. U.S crude (WTI) ended up 30 cents to $89.66 a barrel. U.S crude stocks fell by 4.8 million barrels last week to 410.4 million barrels, their lowest since October 2018, while overall product supplied, a proxy for demand, hit a record 21.9 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, government data showed. 

The heavy activity and ramp-up in U.S refinery processing augur for a tight market for coming months. The data was decidedly bullish hands down - everything was bullish, with inventories at their lowest level in years. The market has also been supported by concerns about ongoing threats to supply in the United Arab Emirates, which has been hit by attacks from Yemen's Houthi group, and over Russia due to the presence of thousands of its troops near Ukraine's border. The bullish U.S energy data offset the prospect of increased supply from Iran.

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Precious and Base Metals

Gold eked out gains yesterday, helped by a weaker dollar and a retreat in U.S. Treasury yields, although prices moved in a tight range as investors refrained from making large bets ahead of U.S inflation data. Spot gold rose 0.5% to $1,834.25 per ounce. U.S gold futures settled up 0.5% at $1,836.60. 

The dollar is down a little bit and it seems somewhat supportive to gold, but overall the gold market is just kind of flat in anticipation of today's CPI number. Benchmark 10-year U.S Treasury yields were off their November 2019 highs, while the dollar eased, making greenback-priced bullion cheaper for other currency holders. 

Elliott waves signal for Gold

All eyes are on U.S. consumer price data for January due on Thursday that could provide more clarity on the Federal Reserve's rate hike trajectory. A robust inflation reading is expected to burnish gold's mettle as an inflation hedge, but U.S interest rate increases would raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. 

U.S central bank officials have signaled they will start raising interest rates next month to fight high inflation. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said yesterday U.S may be nearing a turn lower in inflation, but added he is still leaning towards a slightly faster pace of rate increases this year. 

Rising prices are eroding the value of fiat currencies around the world, making gold an appealing investment for many. But gold must now clear the key $1,830-$1,850 resistance range if it were to make a more serious comeback. Among other precious metals, silver rose 0.5% to $23.28 per ounce, platinum was up 0.4% at $1,036.02 and palladium climbed 1.7% to $2,286.01.

Investors have been revising their forecasts for ECB rate hikes

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean and corn futures set eight-month highs on concerns about the risk for more unfavorable crop weather in drought-stressed growing areas of South America. The U.S Department of Agriculture, in a monthly crop report, pegged Brazil’s soy crop at 134 million tonnes, down from 139 million in January, and Argentina’s soy crop at 45 million, down from 46.5 million. Analysts surveyed by Reuters, on average, expected 133.65 million for Brazil and 44.51 million for Argentina. USDA will likely need to make further cuts. Some private analysts have predicted Brazilian production dropping to around 125 million tonnes.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partners prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Investors have been revising their forecasts for ECB rate hikes

• The dollar slid further and the euro extended gains in yesterday’s trading session
• The CPI print may offer new indications about the pace of the Fed's monetary tightening
• Atlanta Fed President said the U.S economy may be nearing a turn lower in inflation

The dollar slid further yesterday and the euro extended gains following a hawkish shift from the European Central Bank last week and ahead of key data on U.S consumer prices due on Thursday. 

The CPI print may offer new indications about the pace of the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening, and investors are bracing for higher-than-expected numbers that would signal more aggressive interest rate hikes. That readout is expected to show a 0.5% month-over-month increase in January, and 7.3% for the year, according to economists polled by Reuters. 

Economic Calendar

Investors have been revising their forecasts for ECB rate hikes after the bank caught them off guard last week, with President Christine Lagarde flagging for the first time that monetary tightening was a possibility this year. Seeking to temper investors' growing expectations for hardline action, Lagarde calmed markets when she said on Monday there was no need for extensive tightening. But the big shift in central bank policy expectations over the past week, in particular from the ECB, has dampened the dollar's recent upside. 

As the markets work through Lagarde's comments and what Thursday's inflation numbers mean for the Fed, the dollar will likely remain range-bound. The dollar index fell 0.056%, with the euro up 0.1% to $1.1425. 

While the markets await clarity, the dollar and the euro were consolidating within yesterday's ranges. I think that the bottom line for the ECB and the Fed is there's a lot of uncertainty, and so they want to maintain maximum flexibility. The Fed and the ECB need to maintain flexibility and people read into it what they want to. 

Elliott waves forex signal for USD/JPY

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said Wednesday that future rate increases after March will depend on the strength of inflation and how much it moderates or persists. Also on Wednesday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the U.S economy may be nearing a turn lower in inflation, though he added he was still leaning toward a slightly faster pace of interest rate increases this year.

Euro

The single currency extended gains following a hawkish shift from the European Central Bank last week and ahead of key data on U.S. consumer prices due on Thursday. The CPI print may offer new indications about the pace of the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening and investors are bracing for higher-than-expected numbers. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1413 and a high of 1.1461 before closing the day around 1.1441 in the New York session.

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Yen

The Japanese Yen gained as the dollar slid further ahead of key data on U.S consumer prices due today. That readout is expected to show a 0.5% month-over-month increase in January and 7.3% for the year. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said yesterday that future rate increases after March will depend on the strength of inflation. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 114.89 and a high of 115.36 before closing the day around 115.09 in the U.S session.

British Pound

The British Pound steadied against the euro not far from a 1-1/2 month low yesterday amid continued deep uncertainty about the future path of the Bank of England’s monetary policy. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said that it was reasonable for central banks to withdraw from providing detailed guidance on the policy outlook. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3488 and a high of 1.3549 before closing the day at 1.3534 in the New York session.

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Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar has posted slight gains yesterday. There are no Canadian events on the calendar this week, so we can expect U.S releases will have a magnified impact on the movement of the Canadian dollar. With the Fed poised to launch a series of rate hikes starting in March and inflation surging in Canada, it’s unlikely that the BoC will simply fold its hands. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2655 and a high of 1.2754 before closing the day at 1.2664 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar was trying for the fourth session of gains yesterday as global equity markets rallied and commodities kept climbing, while Australian bonds formally waved goodbye to buying by the central bank. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ceased its quantitative easing campaign on Thursday having hoovered up more than A$350 billion ($251.23 billion) in bonds. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7169 and a high of 0.7228 before closing the day at 0.7171 in the New York session.

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Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.15%.

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.01%.

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.63%.

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 and lies above the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.17%.

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.14%.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partners prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Earnings season has been top of mind for market participants

Big Tech gave major U.S stock indexes a boost yesterday and European shares ended largely unchanged as a sharp fall in oil prices took the shine off bumper profits from oil company BP. 

The euro retreated as the European Central Bank tried to cool interest rate hike expectations. Wall Street shares shook off a groggy start and early losses as Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp and Amazon.com Inc. jumped. Shares of bank stocks including Bank of America Corp, JPMorgan Chase & Co and Wells Fargo added over 1% each ahead of a U.S inflation reading due this week. 

Economic Calendar

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.06%. The S&P 500 gained 0.84%. A jump in U.S. Treasury yields lifted bank stocks on Wall Street. Shares of Bank of America Corp BAC.N, JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM.N and Wells Fargo WFC.N all gained over 1%. 

Earnings season has been top of mind for market participants for the past few weeks. Results have been, on balance, better than estimates. As we wrap up the earnings season this week, investors' focus will likely shift from the micro corporate earnings to the macro like the Federal Reserve.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.06%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Amgen Inc., which rose 7.82% or 17.48 points to trade at 241.01 at the close. Meanwhile, American Express Company added 3.26% or 6.13 points to end at 194.00 and UnitedHealth Group Incorporated was up 2.01% or 9.71 points to 493.41 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Chevron Corp which fell 1.52% or 2.11 points to trade at 136.44 at the close. Nike Inc. declined 1.11% or 1.61 points to end at 143.53 and Merck & Company Inc. was down 0.86% or 0.67 points to 76.91.

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NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index added 1.28%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Society Pass Inc. which rose 42.68% to 4.68, Tritium Dcfc Ltd which was up 39.47% to settle at 9.54 and Ucloudlink Group Inc. which gained 38.57% to close at 2.03. The worst performers were Pulse Biosciences Inc. which was down 34.44% to 7.12 in late trade, Anghami De Inc. which lost 30.92% to settle at 13.470 and Nuvectis Pharma Inc. which was down 20.50% to 6.32 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices slipped for a third session today on profit-taking due to concerns of a possible rise in supplies from Iran despite industry data showing a surprising drop in U.S oil inventories. U.S West Texas Intermediate crude was at $89.18 a barrel, down 18 cents, or 0.2%. 

The contract slid about 2% on Tuesday as Washington resumed indirect talks with Iran to revive a nuclear deal. Such a deal could lift U.S sanctions on Iranian oil and quickly add supplies to the market, although a number of vital issues still need to be ironed out. 

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With the negotiations ongoing, the oil price is likely to lose steam in the next week, despite the bump higher we've seen today. The U.S going to Iran to reopen sanctions waiver talks shows, how tight the market is. Governments from the United States to Japan are looking at ways to tackle high oil prices as inflation soars. Undersupply is the key factor that has pumped up the oil price.

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices advanced to a near two-week high on Tuesday, buoyed by mounting inflation concerns and Russia-Ukraine tensions, although expectations for a U.S interest rate hike limited gains. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $1,827.86 per ounce, after hitting its highest since Jan. 26 at $1,828.12 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures settled up 0.3% at $1,827.90 per ounce, ahead of the U.S inflation data due on Thursday. 

There's this more of a wait-and-see approach with some of the bigger data that's coming out later this week. Gold has shown it's forming massive support around $1,800 and this will be an important week for gold. U.S. consumer prices for January are expected to rise 7.3% annually, according to a Reuters poll, after robust labor data last week fanned inflation fears. 

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Gold prices have been stuck in range-bound trade since the beginning of the year, caught between rising inflation worries and growing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. If actual (inflation) data issues as expected or higher, the dollar should strengthen along with U.S Treasury yields leaving gold with substantial downside pressure. 

Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Higher rates also boost the dollar, pressuring the greenback-priced precious metal. The Russia-Ukraine tensions are going to remain elevated despite some of the optimism from French President Macron. 

The dollar index rose 0.3%, making bullion expensive for other currency holders, while the benchmark 10-year U.S Treasury yields hit a more than a two-year peak. Silver rose 0.9% to $23.19, platinum climbed 1.4% to $1,034.36, while palladium eased 0.2% to $2,258.87. The copper market has been subdued since the start of the year, the price is trapped in a tight trading range with volumes and open interest sliding across all three global exchanges.

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Traditional Agricultures

Soybean prices fell yesterday, a day after hitting an eight-month high, ahead of the U.S Agriculture Department’s monthly global supply and demand assessment that is expected to downgrade South American crop production. Corn also eased, while wheat firmed, underpinned by ongoing dryness across the U.S southern Plains.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partners prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

A more hawkish tone from both the ECB and the Fed last week caught markets off guard

• The dollar was boosted yesterday by a climb in Treasury yields to multi-year peaks
• Traders wait on U.S inflation data this week for clues on the pace of Fed policy tightening
• The euro continued to retreat from near a three-month high to Japan's currency
• ECB President earlier this week tapped down expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes

The dollar touched a one-month high versus the yen today, boosted by a climb in Treasury yields to multi-year peaks overnight as traders wait on U.S. inflation data this week for clues on the pace of Federal Reserve policy tightening. 

The euro continued to retreat from near a three-month high to Japan's currency after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde earlier this week tapped down expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes. A more hawkish tone from both the ECB and the Fed last week caught markets off guard and sent yields soaring on the eurozone and U.S. debt in anticipation rates could rise faster and higher than previously expected. 

Economic Calendar

The dollar rose at one point in early Asian trading to 115.69 yen, the highest since Jan. 10, before pulling back to last trade 0.08% lower at 115.43. The 10-year Treasury yield surged as high as 1.97% on Tuesday for the first time since Nov. 2019. The yield on the two-year note, which is more sensitive to interest rate expectations, reached 1.347 for the first time since February 2020. 

Markets are pricing in more than a 70% chance of a 25 basis point hike and a nearly 30% chance for a 50 basis point hike when U.S. policymakers meet in March, according to CME's Fed Watch Tool. High U.S inflation may go even higher before getting better, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Tuesday. 

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Consumer prices probably climbed 7.3% year-over-year in January, economists polled by Reuters predict U.S data will show on Thursday. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback against six major peers, edged 0.02% higher to 95.614, after bouncing off a 2-1/2-week low of 95.136 reached Friday. It touched the highest since June 2020 at 97.441 at the end of last month. 

The dollar index is in a holding pattern while markets weigh up the prospect of an abrupt Fed policy tightening against the ECB's hawkish backflip. Although a more hawkish ECB will keep a lid on dollar gains near-term, the dollar's medium-term bull trend is still intact, and the dollar index is a buy-on dip to the low 95 levels. 

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The ECB's Lagarde said on Monday there was no need for extensive tightening, trying to temper rising expectations for aggressive action after she last week opened the door a crack to a potential rate rise this year. The euro was about flat at $1.1420, following its gradual retreat from a peak of $1.1483 on Friday, which matched the highest level in almost three months.

Euro

The single currency weakened in yesterday’s session after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde tried to rein in interest rate hike expectations that lifted the currency to a three-week-high last week. The ECB's hawkish twist last week took markets by surprise and sent yields on peripheral eurozone debt surging. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1413 and a high of 1.1461 before closing the day around 1.1441 in the New York session.

Yen

The Japanese Yen fell as the dollar was boosted by a climb in Treasury yields to multi-year peaks overnight as traders wait on U.S inflation data this week for clues on the pace of Federal Reserve policy tightening. Markets are pricing in more than a 70% chance of a 25 basis point hike and a nearly 30% chance for a 50 basis point hike when U.S policymakers meet in March. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 114.89 and a high of 115.36 before closing the day around 115.09 in the U.S session.

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British Pound

The British Pound gained versus the euro for a second consecutive day, pulling back from a 1-1/2 month low hit on Monday as investors judged that any monetary tightening by the European Central Bank will significantly lag its British counterpart in the near term. We’re still of the view that in six months’ time, UK rates will be in positive territory. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3488 and a high of 1.3549 before closing the day at 1.3534 in the New York session.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened against its U.S counterpart, giving back some of the previous day's sharp gains, as oil prices fell and domestic data showed a surprise trade deficit. Some of that weakness has been attributed to the pullback we're seeing with crude prices. The relentless rally with oil it seems to be showing some exhaustion. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2655 and a high of 1.2754 before closing the day at 1.2664 in the New York session.

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Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar inched higher today as global markets priced in the risk of a more drastic tightening by central banks, sending local bond yields to three-year peaks. Markets have likewise moved to price in more moves by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), after the central bank conceded a rate rise could come late next year if the economy continued to surprise on the upside. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7169 and a high of 0.7228 before closing the day at 0.7171 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.15%.

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.01%.

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Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.63%.

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 and lies above the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.17%.

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.14%.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partners prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Elliott waves forex signal for USD/JPY

Let us start with the monthly forex trading chart, which is already a bit older but it gives a very good forex trading signal of where we are in the long-term cycle of this currency pair which is heavily traded by traders and investors in the forex markets.

From the '70s to 2011 a forex trading pulse movement has developed, which can be defined as wave [A] of the grand cycle. After the bottom of 2011, we are in the development of wave [B].  

A potential target for the development of this wave, in the long run, is the area around 220-260. I would like to make a small digression here for anyone who thinks that Central Banks can manipulate the long-term trend - they CAN NOT, neither any forex brokers nor any entity providing forex services and trading platforms.

This is an old forex trading chart of mine that traces the development in the forex markets of the 5th wave. Throughout the collapse, the Bank of Japan has been very busy trying to stop the appreciation of the yen and is constantly intervening directly in the forex markets (marked with red arrows on the chart), but on the weekly forex chart these interventions remain just noise and the trend continues where it is going. 

The irony is that at the bottom the BOJ is abandoning interventions and saying it will start lending to Japanese foreign companies to acquire assets. However, this bitter lesson is very instructive and definitely proves that the long-term trend cannot be manipulated and this could not affect the forex markets or any traders who are involved in forex trading.

Let's go back to today and look at the weekly forex chart below.

Let's go back to the present time. After the bottom of 2011. I consider the rise to 125.80 as an impulse with two extended waves (which is very rare) or A-B-C (zig-zag) correction for wave (A) or (W), respectively. 

Then we have a long correction for wave (C) or (X), which has developed as a complex correction or double zig-zag with shortened Y wave. In my opinion, this correction has ended at the bottom of January 2021 and we are developing the next ascending cycle. In the longer term, the potential target of this upward cycle is the area around 146-150.

On the daily forex trading chart, I am currently considering two trading scenarios. According to the first (with red on the chart), we are developing wave 4 and there will be an upward movement for wave 5 with a potential target area around 118. 

The other possible option (with blue on the chart) is yet to begin the development of wave 3, this means direct acceleration to zone 121, lateral consolidation, and rise to about 124-125.

Elliott waves signal for Silver

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partners prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.